Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[sheikhy]

What hurts the most is there even a snowy break down on any of the models?!!after looking at the models the issue is not that its too far east its just too far south early on!!need a stronger italian low as well!!

[bluearmy]

Jet stream profile this morning and a month ago

                      
 

I suggest the chaotic nature of that will cause plenty of headaches for the algorithms to resolve 

the prediction at day 8 isn’t any less messy on gfs 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by bluearmy

[KTtom]

13 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well if it's a wobble it's a cross model wobble this morning. ECM chalk and cheese from its 12z run. Highly unlikely that all models ops would be extreme mild outliers.  

See what the Meto extended says later but not looking great with the ops this morning.

I wouldnt pay too much attention to that to be honest, if you trawl through all their forecasts since pretty much xmas, there is one constant, a significant snow event where rain meets cold, its still there. A world away this morning.

[bluearmy]

To add that the trend of euro heights rising with no effective split jet flow into Europe to support the ridge - in addition the e euro trough goes too far to the east to help out here (it also helped to draw some flow from the west under the ridge ) and the Svalbard low heights place a lid on northern traction of the upper ridge 

the end in sight for an extension of the deep cold at the surface beyond the weekend. BUT that’s what we thought a week ago for the back end of this week ......the development of a cold surface high in scandi was predictable .....support from an upper ridge less so. i wonder if there is another surprise for next week? Not sure I can see one ......

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What hurts the most is there even a snowy break down on any of the models?!!after looking at the models the issue is not that its too far east its just too far south early on!!need a stronger italian low as well!!

Make the most of your streamer today !

[Climate Man]

4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I wouldnt pay too much attention to that to be honest, if you trawl through all their forecasts since pretty much xmas, there is one constant, a significant snow event where rain meets cold, its still there. A world away this morning.

Sorry if this shouldn't be here but is vital to the model discussion this morning.  Both MO extend and BBC TV go for extended cold. Never have I seen such a conflict.  Met model and extended are chalk and cheese.  Is Glosea markedly different?

[DavidS]

4 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Sorry if this shouldn't be here but is vital to the model discussion this morning.  Both MO extend and BBC TV go for extended cold. Never have I seen such a conflict.  Met model and extended are chalk and cheese.  Is Glosea markedly different?

BBC use the ECM but are normally behind the curve with their forecasts. 0z ECM has us here at D10, but it goes wrong before.

 

[nick sussex]

Looks like once again the UKMO was the bad omen !

Rarely does it pick a colder solution against the others which verifies but it always seems to when it’s picking the milder solution.

Hard to see any reprieve now . The upstream pattern is also flatter with the shortwave exiting Canada no longer developing a sharper ridge ahead of it as in last nights ECM .

Barring a last minute miracle best to enjoy the cold and snow if you have it over the next 4 days . 

Originally the cold was expected to lift out on Thursday ,it just about hangs on into the weekend more especially for the east . Also disappointing is the cold looks like going out on a whimper for most although there is a chance of some snow in the west and south west .

 

[kev238]

The output that suggested a return of deep cold from the east seems to have vanished. I wouldn’t totally rule out the breakdown having some snow depending on the angle of approach 

[JimBob]

The signs for milder weather have been appearing in the models for a few days now.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed

[mb018538]

Looking like an extended visit from the beast is looking less and less likely now. Staying cold out to Saturday/perhaps Sunday before it starts to warm up with some form of southerly based winds taking hold.

From a personal point of view - good, the snow was rubbish here anyway  

[IDO]

This is the conclusion from the MJO weekly expert's update:

Given the lack of characteristic propagation of any intraseasonal signal, and the potential for the MJO to weaken as it interferes with other modes of tropical variability, the tropics appear unlikely to drive significant extratropical teleconnection activity to the higher latitudes during the next two weeks. The forecast circulation pattern over the Americas the next two weeks bears little resemblance to what would be expected for an active MJO event over the West Pacific, and is instead likely a mix of La Niña influences and high-latitude teleconnections. [source >>> HERE <<<]

It seems as it has been in the winter that composites from the MJO should be treated with caution and forecasting relying on that easy fit now have to involve more than MJO signals? So it is the status quo of this winter, cold spells punctuated by a hiatus and then relying on wedges to create HLB'ing and hope it favours the UK? 

The GEM, then UKMO, then GFS and finally ECM picked up these changes, most of them forecasting a period of HLB'ing but gradually downgrading to mid-lat with the Atlantic trough to our west parked out there for a while (10 days on gfs). This type of flow (post d6) is dependent on where the trough sits and the high aligns and IMBY gefs are split on a cooler or average or milder surface layer:

 

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

39 minutes ago, JimBob said:

The signs for milder weather have been appearing in the models for a few days now. 

 I don't think there have been any discernible trends in the last few days. Sure, certainly the possibility of the mild returning but loads of mixed and conflicting signals.

Would certainly agree that there does now seem to be a gathering trend towards a breakdown, but would prefer to consider it in the light of the 12s which are generally less progressive.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comments removed

[markw2680]

Come on people you can’t write off the cold coming back with a vengeance just yet, it’s Tuesday morning unless I’m mistaken? And yet we are saying it’s all over for the weekend! That’s 4-5 days away, a lot can change in the next day or two.

I expect the milder air to try and push in over the weekend but will probably only make it into the west before slowly the cold in the east will beat it back again. At least there’s a chance of snow coming in from the west

[Robbie Coldrain]

It seems things are on the slide now as we head into the weekend. Not surprised as keeping cold longer than a week in the UK is pretty rare, especially in the south.  If the mild wins through I expect we will go from cold to early spring like weather here, which often seems to be way.  

[Tim Bland]

Not much comfort from the ensembles I’m afraid. A bit chaotic but not many cold options.   Extending the cold  & snowy spell was always a long shot, looked possible for a while but I think we need to give up the chase now.  Let’s hope for something like  yesterday’s GFs or Icon to show up again where we at least get a widespread snowy breakdown.  

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, Climate Man said:

Sorry if this shouldn't be here but is vital to the model discussion this morning.  Both MO extend and BBC TV go for extended cold. Never have I seen such a conflict.  Met model and extended are chalk and cheese.  Is Glosea markedly different?

I think due to the flip being overnight, I think you will see a vastly different 5 - 15 day update when it comes out around 3pm (although it states 04.00 it doesnt update overnight).

[nick sussex]

The change in the ensembles is even more marked further into mainland Europe . You rarely get ensemble flips the other way towards colder solutions.

Very disappointing but we’ve been here before ! I think we’re onto plan C now! 

A was another cold easterly with deep cold pool.

B was enough se flow to allow for some frontal snow as there was just enough upstream trough disruption.

C operation scrape just enough elevation to the high with the pattern corrected a bit further west to hang onto some surface cold .

[Snowmadsam]

Whilst this cold spell maybe coming to an end, at least people have seen something white fall from the sky and experienced it? 
 

Personally, I’d rather get this over with so people can get their COVID jabs. Then come back next year with hopefully a better shot at cold.

Model wise, things are looking to warm up this morning, but I have an inkling based on long range options which came out last night that it may only be a window of mild before we get back into the freezer before months end (ECM)

[Riky91]

It is sad not seeing a proper snow event in these charts.. at least from South East (west london) to west which have been completly dry. Wasted cold..

 

Let's hope for some upgrades.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Riky91

[Anthony Burden]

Charts showing once again a breakdown from the Atlantic for a short period with an uptake 

in temperatures.ECM at 240 hrs returning High pressure to our east but in a poor location

this will change of course if it happens.My take met office 30 day has never been far away

from the correct Synoptics,so a return to dry and cold after a possible Atlantic milder spell.

 

[MJB]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

What hurts the most is there even a snowy break down on any of the models?!!after looking at the models the issue is not that its too far east its just too far south early on!!need a stronger italian low as well!!

yes for a few hours 

[gig1968]

This has hardly been the beast from the east anyway has it. More like the fairy from the east, for most regions. It's a shame we are not seeing an Atlantic breakdown with transient snow. Maybe we may get this in the end. 

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

yes for a few hours 

That’s yesterday’s 12z I don’t think 18z or 00z has any snow? Icon also backed away from throwing out that shortwave at the weekend.

some very respected meteorologists on Twitter are saying models always underestimate the strength of the block and the cold will hold firm. I’m not so sure. I can’t   Recall a time that all models were wrong at fairly short notice?   Some are hanging on every word of Carol Kirkwood this morning ...I can tell you 100% she is reading the script of last nights ECM.. they will switch to the new ECM run later .

[AWD]

Would be interesting to get a northern hemispheric view of the Netweather Medium range model over the weekend and into early next week.

Only got the UK view, but Netweathers very own model keeps the colder weather in place for many parts of the country over the weekend and into next week, with outbreaks of frontal snow stalling over the South West/South Wales at times;

Admittedly it is very much out on its own this morning, and I'm not expecting it to verify.  I posted this more as an observation rather than a forecast.

Edited February 9, 2021 by AWD
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