Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Kiggle? Is that like a crooked squiggle? 

I sometimes make up my own words, sorry.  I mean the shortwave off the main low, which should enhance WAA.

@Griff big as that low is, there is no guarantee at all it will ruin this cold spell, the cold will fight, it fought off the suggestions of total collapse of the cold spell a few days ago, and it will do again, what is interesting is the way this is happening.  

Edited February 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Battleground Snow]

GFS at 132, not sure about this one, not sure they is enough energy coming in from the east to keep the Scandi high propped up 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Allseasons-Si]

Latest EC monthly's....

had to copy them from Matt Hugo's tweet as i couldn't find them

still looking blocked...

 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I sometimes make up my own words, sorry.  I mean the shortwave off the main low, which should enhance WAA.

@Griff big as that low is, there is no guarantee at all it will ruin this cold spell, the cold will fight, it fought off the suggestions of total collapse of the cold spell a few days ago, and it will do again, what is interesting is the way this is happening.  

Milder incursion for a better block after? 

[damianslaw]

ECM showing a battleground situation over the weekend, low pressure to the west coming unstuck against heights to the east, end result a southerly flow off a cold continent, and some sort of frontal feature moving in but most likely stalling in situ. The high wins out and we see the airflow turn to a SE one.

GFS up to Saturday same evolution but makes less of the heights to the NE, however, lets see what the 18z run gives.

UKMO aligned with ECM.

A protracted colder than average period ahead and blocked.

Years such as 1996, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2018 all coming to mind at present.. all featured cold Marches!

Edited February 8, 2021 by damianslaw

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS at 132, not sure about this one, not sure they is enough energy coming in from the east to keep the Scandi high propped up 

Depends what kind of block this will end up as  

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

At the moment, snow won't be how this spell is remembered (except maybe Cornwall/Devon?!?) but it will be for cold. ECM looks like some spots in SE and central England may not see temperatures above 1C within the whole 10 days of its run.

It is a really close call between a UKMO and ECM ending. Not a lot in it at D5. I doubt the UKMO will be that mild except in the west, though. 

Also, bear in mind always the magic of blocking to the east. Not 72 hours ago the models unanimously pushed snow and rain right up into N Scotland. Now it doesn't get past Bristol, maybe not even that. That's a 500 mile turnaround. The point being, blocks to the east have a way of baffling the models even at short timescales. Is it even inconceivable the deep cold will come back?

That is just jaw dropping how ridiculously cold and prolonged ECM 12z is for London and a -12C low Thursday morning madness!

 

[Frigid]

I'd suspect a lot of wobbles with the models, just how it went last week with the current easterly. But one thing I can say is we're not in a bad position whatsoever

[nick sussex]

The improved upstream pattern comes to the rescue at T156 hrs.

See that sharper ridge exiting Canada behind the low to the west , that helps to sharpen up and elongate that , that bit more amplitude really helps .

[Mike Poole]

This is probably going to end well, GFS pub run T162:

[ICE COLD]

18z is Better than the 12z run . 

[Allseasons-Si]

A colder inversion further south on this run from the SE.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[nobble]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

ECM showing a battleground situation over the weekend, low pressure to the west coming unstuck against heights to the east, end result a southerly flow off a cold continent, and some sort of frontal feature moving in but most likely stalling in situ. The high wins out and we see the airflow turn to a SE one.

GFS up to Saturday same evolution but makes less of the heights to the NE, however, lets see what the 18z run gives.

UKMO aligned with ECM.

A protracted colder than average period ahead and blocked.

Years such as 1996, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2018 all coming to mind at present.. all featured cold Marches!

Don’t forget March 2013 ! 

[Griff]

Pub run retrogression? 

[Tim Bland]

Was looking good  

Edited February 8, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Snowman.]

High keeps being dragged down SE, need that cut off otherwise we get a rude awakening of spring!

[Cavehill Snow]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That is just jaw dropping how ridiculously cold and prolonged ECM 12z is for London and a -12C low Thursday morning madness!

 

Anyone know where ECM OP sits with wrt rest of ensembles suite?

[nick sussex]

Still not enough trough disruption later on but the main thing is the GFS hasn’t trended towards the grinch duo of the GEM and UKMO .

[Griff]

Good to see so much cross model agreement and support this evening, clears up so much moving forward... 

[Allseasons-Si]

The trough is held further west up to 192 with better ridging into Griceland,that's good enough for me..

see what tomorrow brings and hoping for more upgrades

night all

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The trough is held further west up to 192 with better ridging into Griceland,that's good enough for me..

see what tomorrow brings and hoping for more upgrades

night all

Yes, Si, that’s where I am too, this cold spell has more going for it than some models are suggesting.  GFS 18z reinforces that view, details beyond T96 to be ironed out in future runs...

[Allseasons-Si]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This is probably going to end well, GFS pub run T162:

It doesn't but that is the gfs for you,gfs being over progressive as usual?

[Penrith Snow]

26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

ECM showing a battleground situation over the weekend, low pressure to the west coming unstuck against heights to the east, end result a southerly flow off a cold continent, and some sort of frontal feature moving in but most likely stalling in situ. The high wins out and we see the airflow turn to a SE one.

GFS up to Saturday same evolution but makes less of the heights to the NE, however, lets see what the 18z run gives.

UKMO aligned with ECM.

A protracted colder than average period ahead and blocked.

Years such as 1996, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2018 all coming to mind at present.. all featured cold Marches!

I would definitely put my money on a  cold March, almost a dead cert and I have a feeling spring is going to be very different to last year. 

[Day_9]

Reasons to be cheerful.

If it’s obvious to a total amateur like me...... no Atlantic to back up lows.

The reliable is 4 days at best (RT in my crayon below).  The ‘warm up’ is already being moderated, get back under the 30 yr mean !!!

Look at that spread beyond and into fantasy island some 15 degrees celcius so i would worry at all.  All of the trends have been for cold.   When the ECM latched onto it, the GFS gave up the ghost, (probably not able to handle the series of SSW’s and using default bias) but it soon came back on board.  
 

We are in a prolonged cold spell which even here in the far south of Wales, frosty mornings have been nice to have, and frequent too. (Certainly more than in recent years). 
 

I cannot see it ending in February....

[Penrith Snow]

29 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That is just jaw dropping how ridiculously cold and prolonged ECM 12z is for London and a -12C low Thursday morning madness!

 

My God some winters we would be pleased if they were the 850mb temps! Seem very low to me, straight out of the 60's