Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

ECM pulling a victory from the jaws of defeat, some people really overreacted after one dodgy GFS run..

The GFS isn’t the problem , it’s the UKMO which is poor . And that starts going downhill quite early on.

[Johnp]

Good to have JMA back on board again 

[phil nw.]

Just now, sheikhy said:

What an ecm!!!!and after the day ive had in regards to snow here in this part of leicester it makes it all the better!!!

Yes the high building in the right direction.The main thing is the Atlantic is not geared up to push the block aside with the main jet running south. 

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS isn’t the problem , it’s the UKMO which is poor . And that starts going downhill quite early on.

Nick the meto 6-15 day update suggests that they have binned the raw output because the ecm is easentially that update in chart form.

[IDO]

Oh well, any thoughts of a resolution by the 12z has been postponed until tomorrow. The gefs remain uncommitted with the ukmo, ecm and gfs op and stuff inbetween all having clusters!

We know that gem when it sees a pattern goes OTT so as it over-reacted to the Scandi ridge it has gone the other way on the Atlantic, in the last few runs. GFS is not hot on the Atlantic undercuts so all is not lost on that op.

The ecm gets there, but at no point was that a done deal until it went under, so lots of questions and no answers today!

Although no BFTE, the ecm looks close to the best we can get from the 12z offerings and at d9:

[Panayiotis]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What drama . If only the day 6 was a bit more sharp with that upstream troughing .

This evolution could still go either way , it’s on a knife edge and the UKMO is the real concern this evening .

Agreed, as ever we need the UKMO to back the ECM evolution. Without it on board I remain sceptical.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Panayiotis

[Eagle Eye]

You can see the colder air retreat later on in the week and sliding south although this doesn't sound good in the short term a sudden change in the Jet Stream could allow this cold air to psh up through the south east and southern areas allowing for easternly fed air to connect and bring a return of the fortunes of so far this week. 

[sheikhy]

The ukmo has been all over the place in recent days!!had the high over scandi weak then came.into line!!then further east!!and now stronger scandi high but further south at 144 hours!!all over the place!!

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Agreed, as ever we need the UKMO to back the ECM evolution. Without it on board I remain sceptical.

UKMO is regularly wrong at 144, so I have hope.

[Johnp]

ECM day 9

[Derecho]

ECM extends the longevity of this cold spell, an interesting run.

I wonder whether the weekend may spring a surprise, if the Scandi high is more oval shaped, cold uppers cold be dragged back in from the east, albeit pretty dry under an anticyclonic flow.

Still a very cold outlook is possible.

[chris55]

15 minutes ago, Griff said:

192

... I know 144 is still a long way in FI 

Thats a beauty of a chart Griff, should be a front stalled in there for the west, and the cold feed comes back in for the east and everyone for that matter. This cold spell is getting very interesting......

At 216 although 850s are not all singing and dancing the flow at the surface it bitter!!! Hopefully by this point we would all have a covering of snow and can enjoy the -10c nighttime temps!

Edited February 8, 2021 by chris55

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Nick the meto 6-15 day update suggests that they have binned the raw output because the ecm is easentially that update in chart form.

That update was before the UKMO horror show . I would be less concerned if it was the GFS doing this , but  it starts taking on water at day 4 and then people are running for the lifeboats by day 5 , by day 6 it’s sunk without trace. I’m relieved to see the ECM run but there’s fine margins even there .

I think a return to an easterly with deep cold is unlikely now so we’re onto plan B , which is the ECM trend .

 

[Johnp]

..and we're off to Greenland at day 10 and the vortex still in disarray. 

All in all a decent run!

Edited February 8, 2021 by Johnp

[Tim Bland]

Am I the only one thinking the ECM is a bit boring ? IF it happened like that almost all areas would be cold and dry (apart from tomorrow in the east) and it’s not even cold enough for any snow showers Unless I was in an area that currently had proper snow cover and wanted to keep it as long as poss, I’d prefer the GFS, at least it gave us a snowy breakdown

Edited February 8, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Snowman.]

Seeing a lot of UKMO hate, just want to remind everyone that it remained the most stable during the current easterly. Both GFS and ECM threw wobbles. GEM also did well.

Before we get carried away the UKMO has slain beasterlies time and time again and we need it our side. I remain causious until it is convinced.

[Bricriu]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Am I the only one ruining the ECM is a bit boring ? IF it happened like that we would be cold and dry (apart from tomorrow) and it’s not even cold enough for any snow showers Unless I was in an area that currently had proper snow cover and wanted to keep it I’d prefer the GFS, at least it gave us a snowy breakdown

If we were to get a proper Greenland high the snow would come at some stage. Although as others have said if you don't have the UKMO on board you can forget it- very few cold spells happen without the UKMO  showing it too

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Thats a beauty of a chart Griff, should be a front stalled in there for the west, and the cold feed comes back in for the east and everyone for that matter. This cold spell is getting very interesting......

At 216 although 850s are not all singing and dancing the flow at the surface it bitter!!! Hopefully by this point we would all have a covering of snow and can enjoy the -10c nighttime temps!

 

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

..and we're off to Greenland at day 10

All in all a decent run!

A lot of positives against a very noisy and so far unconvincing set of models across the board. 

I know my favoured outcome and the ECM ticks that box, and my confirmation bias is full steam ahead with background signals, MJO etc. 

I'm not entirely sure though to be honest...

Perhaps it's just model fatigue...

 

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

That update was before the UKMO horror show . I would be less concerned if it was the GFS doing this , but  it starts taking on water at day 4 and then people are running for the lifeboats by day 5 , by day 6 it’s sunk without trace. I’m relieved to see the ECM run but there’s fine margins even there .

I think a return to an easterly with deep cold is unlikely now so we’re onto plan B , which is the ECM trend .

 

I can see where you're coming from but  all we really need for snow in the UK  is a stubborn cold block be that Scandi, Greenie or Griceland based.

[phil nw.]

Yes i always look for agreement with the UKMO model.The difference in that model is not great at 144hrs with the ecm and gfs but it lacks any energy going se.Against that though i think it would go on to build the high further as it starts to do so on it's last frame. A wait and see on that one i think.

The pattern in general though continues to promise more blocking attempts,it's just a case of it getting it  further north whilst the cold is there to draw on.The models continue to toy with different scenarios on this with both GFS and ECM showing this on the 12z runs.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Would not at all rule out an epic blizzard by the end of this cold spell. Classic battleground scenario ahead has always been a good recipe in the past. ECM is encouraging, and the east still remains in sub zero uppers and surface temps throughout. Also until Wednesday, opportunities for disturbances in the current easterly flow to bring more enhanced snowfall anywhere from Aberdeenshire to Essex and Kent spreading west! 

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Am I the only one ruining the ECM is a bit boring ? IF it happened like that we would be cold and dry (apart from tomorrow) and it’s not even cold enough for any snow showers Unless I was in an area that currently had proper snow cover and wanted to keep it I’d prefer the GFS, at least it gave us a snowy breakdown

The high suffers from a saggy backend past 144, stopping the cold and low heights reaching us. 

Plently of time for adjustments however.

 

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, icykev said:

You sure your looking at the right charts this time Nick, have tried to get an answer out of you regarding the breakdown/battleground scenario but you just will not commit or even reply!

Did I miss your earlier post asking about that . As for the charts yes I think I’m okay there . I haven’t hit the bottle yet ! As for any potential breakdown there’s still lots of uncertainty because of how much progress any fronts might make ne wards . Even the UKMO are being very vague on that front .

Edited February 8, 2021 by nick sussex

[Anthony Burden]

ECM showing a possible short up take in temperatures before a realignment of the Scandinavian 

high returns the cold east/ northeast winds.So a short southeast wind direction with a slightly 

milder flow,still some uncertainty at the 144 hrs plus range.

[That ECM]

The year of model watching intrigue continues.