Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Griff]

Keeps the UK in the game

More runs needed

Edited February 8, 2021 by Griff

[chris55]

ECM 168 is looking great! Energy going under.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

I WAS WRONG ITS GOING UNDER!

Chart battleground!!chart!!!

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Keeps the UK in the game

More runs needed

192 should be great

[Derecho]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What really doesn’t help is the lack of amplitude upstream .

You need that to help sharpen up the troughing to the west , if that happened it would force more energy se .

Yup or lower pressure towards southern Europe, the cold is still hanging on by T168, but pushing north-westwards across the UK with low pressure moving in from the south-west. With some undercutting, this could lead to a good snow event but very may well lead to a breakdown to milder weather.

It seems the threat of milder weather has increased next week, but interestingly the GFS is actually colder in quite a lot of its ens this weekend. The Scandi high in these is more rounded in shape and some bring back the -10 850s over the weekend but with a push from the Atlantic next week.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[Frigid]

Ooo this could be a stonking run this!!

[ICE COLD]

Hello ECM 168

[Tim Bland]

Looks like energy is undercutting with slider potential ️

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

I WAS WRONG ITS GOING UNDER!

.. It manages to drag the colder uppers back over us

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What really doesn’t help is the lack of amplitude upstream .

You need that to help sharpen up the troughing to the west , if that happened it would force more energy se .

This could end up a stonker still yet.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Chart battleground!!chart!!!

Haha sorry thought someone else would do it!

[Griff]

What's the Arctic high up to? 

(probably nothing ) 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Griff

[Leon1]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Looks like energy is undercutting with slider potential ️

Could end up playing into the Met Office extended outlook of battleground snow events in the south and west and more dry in the north and east.

[chris55]

looking back at ECM 120, and that's a classic chart for the precursor to an easterly setting up. Good WAA and a cold pool to the east.

ECM 120

[Jackski4]

ECM pulling a victory from the jaws of defeat, some people really overreacted after one dodgy GFS run..

[Sawel]

It's almost identical to its 0z run.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Sawel

[nick sussex]

What drama . If only the day 6 was a bit more sharp with that upstream troughing .

This evolution could still go either way , it’s on a knife edge and the UKMO is the real concern this evening .

[Johnp]

Most of the snow at 168 is in Northern Ireland.

Speaking of ECM snow charts, not sure how much we should pay attention to them when this is their forecast for 20 minutes time

 

[phil nw.]

If we can just gain a little more latitude with the high then a return to another easterly  would be quite possible from the ecm t168

As it is with all the runs until the weekend it still remains very cold for the majority of the UK away from the sw.The surface south easterly coming from a frozen Europe.

Edited February 8, 2021 by phil nw.

[Griff]

192

... I know 144 is still a long way in FI 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Griff

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

192

Retrogression?

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Most of the snow at 168 is in Northern Ireland.

 

 

Here's hoping. We've missed the party so far.

[sheikhy]

What an ecm!!!!and after the day ive had in regards to snow here in this part of leicester it makes it all the better!!!

[Chesil View]

important thing at 192 not just the low going under but the centre of the high incrementally heading northwest.

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

192

... I know 144 is still a long way in FI 

 

1 minute ago, Howie said:

Retrogression?

240 could show a split vortex