Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Snowman.]

Interesting feature of the SE coast.

Kinks in the isobar.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Do you see a way back to a potential snowy spell eventually with that option? 

That really depends where the high is located , if that is too far east but sufficiently north then some renewed upstream amplification can get you there .

We’ll know more once the ECM comes out .

[icykev]

A question maybe for Scott or Kasim, would flooding/saturated ground conditions contribute to more convection/snow? Thanks 

Edited February 8, 2021 by icykev

[Drifter]

10 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

Met office are pushing the milder air in earlier now 7 or 8 degrees at the weekend.  Hopefully its wrong but feels like most sites are trending that way. Nice to have it cold and dry, already noticed how the real saturation of the ground has been sucked up by the cold.

You do realise these are just automated garbage?  So when we get poor model runs, the apps that are driven by them then turn poor.  
Some people then see this as the apps confirming what the models have shown when in reality they are just mirroring them. 

[Kreftysoton]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Interesting feature of the SE coast.

Kinks in the isobar.

What u thinking, disturbance along the channel?

[Kreftysoton]

Just now, Drifter said:

You do realise these are just automated garbage?  So when we get poor model runs, the apps that are driven by them then turn poor.  
Some people then see this as the apps confirming what the models have shown when in reality they are just mirroring them. 

Yes i totally get that as the apps pushed the mild out from wednesday to sat/sun initially then yest we were remaining cold here for the weekend. Lets hope the models flip and it stays cold and dry. I for one much prefer it to 11 degrees with heavy rain every day

[rwtwm]

45 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I must admit that when I see such a post is someone's 16th post, I tend to ignore it.

Well that stings a little, even though it wasn't aimed at me.

GEFS looking good so far, but the ops seem to be having a bit of a wobble today. The strength and angle of this Atlantic low will have dramatic knock on effects, so until that's sorted we won't know either way. My instinct is for a UK high rather than a Euro one, but we can't rule out a true reload just yet.

[Griff]

I'm getting gem feelings about this

[That ECM]

T96. ECM in the middle of the other two.

[chris55]

56 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Honestly the chances of a true easterly are diminishing. The UKMO is develop a northern Euro high (remaining chilly).

The ridge looks unlikely to be sheered away. So dry and settled, probably quite sunny too given the wind direction that would dominate. Very similar to the ICON.

GFS isn’t going to give an easterly either.

However another route to cold is definitely possible from here as the high has every chance of moving west over the top of that negatively tilted trough.

(Warning....slightly west based bias in this post...)

Easterlies are rubbish anyway.......this is tongue in cheek lol. Though without a proper disturbance/low in the feed the snowfall risk for the west tends to be minimal. So the thought of another easterly like this one isn't on my radar TBH 

Obviously it depends where you live in the UK, Scotland has done very well generally this winter, and the east are seeing some decent snowfalls this week.

Us in the West need some frontal incursions from the Atlantic and GFS is the kind of pattern we need to see for that to happen. As long as the cold airmass can sustain generally and the Atlantic doesn't sweep in, then the trend from GFS this eve is a really good one if you I've in the West.

 

UKMO looked poor generally tonight at 144 for anything sustained after the Atlantic pushes east, just generally a less cold flow, GEM similar. 

Lets see what ECM has to offer up.

[Battleground Snow]

ECM much better than ukmo at 120, but it needs more westwards corrections, running out of time for that to happen now..

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM much better than ukmo at 120, but it needs more westwards corrections, running out of time for that to happen now..

Better than gem with Atlantic low elongating rather than bowling ball quite as far east. 

 

Fyi

850s

Edited February 8, 2021 by Griff

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM much better than ukmo at 120, but it needs more westwards corrections, running out of time for that to happen now..

The Keyword being here is Time 

We have to get everything into place sooner or later it may very well be all for nothing 

Hopefully ECM will continue to trend towards the GFS

[snowblizzard]

Surely the Iberian heights are a problem when it comes to prolonging the cold spell?

[Timmytour]

9 minutes ago, rwtwm said:

Well that stings a little, even though it wasn't aimed at me.

GEFS looking good so far, but the ops seem to be having a bit of a wobble today. The strength and angle of this Atlantic low will have dramatic knock on effects, so until that's sorted we won't know either way. My instinct is for a UK high rather than a Euro one, but we can't rule out a true reload just yet.

Lol...A 16th post on its own is fine....combined with a certain style of content though can lead to certain conclusions to be drawn!  No such conclusions drawn with your post 

[Battleground Snow]

So close to being a great chart at 144, can we just nudge it a tad west in future runs?.

[Snowman.]

Just now, Kreftysoton said:

What u thinking, disturbance along the channel?

Defo some kind of disturbance there. 

[Griff]

Ecm 144 better than gem, not as cold as gfs 12z

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

So close to being a great chart at 144, can we just nudge it a tad west in future runs?.

That looks like a great position for an easterly down the line?

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

So close to being a great chart at 144, can we just nudge it a tad west in future runs?.

ECM fighting back on this run.

[sheikhy]

Wicked ecm!!!!this aint over by a long shot!!closer to gfs than ukmo at 144 hours!!and still.pretty darn freezing into sunday!

[nick sussex]

What really doesn’t help is the lack of amplitude upstream .

You need that to help sharpen up the troughing to the west , if that happened it would force more energy se .

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

That looks like a great position for an easterly down the line?

I think there will be just a little bit too much forcing by the  Atlantic low on this run, but maybe on future runs it will be weaker and disrupt underneath the block.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Howie]

So all of a sudden it looks like the atlantic low is putting up more of a fight, wonder which one will win

[Battleground Snow]

I WAS WRONG ITS GOING UNDER!