Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[JimBob]

The models have been pretty consistent with the cold snap ending at the weekend for the majority of the country and continue to firm up on the idea. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z GFS good for me! but takes the Atlantic 4 attempts to bring the snow! not that keen on cold and dry with not a snow chance, finally a decent day for next Monday! deep FI though as models all over place

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

I'd be happy with cold and dry if that's what's currently showing. 

I can’t imagine this being very dry for Wales I’m afraid ️

[damianslaw]

41 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Yes I totally agree - it's freezing cold but there is no accumulated snow in much of the country. Not a Feb '91 by any stretch. However, with the cold established, you just never know when there's going to be some frontal snow. I was looking at the famous Ian McCaskill forecast on YouTube from Feb 1991, and we had that low pushing up from France which gave us all the fantastic historical event that we all refer back to. The cold is here, the patterns will change, but sooner or later there's got to be a low pressure system in the vicinity to give us (as in most of the UK) some frontal snow surely. 

Onto the 12z's to watch for this happening!

Synoptics and conditions reminiscent of a large part of Feb 86, which was freezing but away from far eastern counties as well as far SW mostly very dry with just a few snowy flurries. 

[georgiedre]

When will people learn hahahah its just the models trying to slide away (like the oasis song) into Europe and high to regain strength as per meto update today . Cant see them being that wrong tbh. Sit back and enjoy it ... cold is here to stay at least for northern and Eastern areas anyway

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

12Z GFS good for me! but takes the Atlantic 4 attempts to bring the snow! not that keen on cold and dry with not a snow chance, finally a decent day for next Monday! deep FI though as models all over place

Would prefer a Sunday to make a snow day.. mind its school holidays next week so the kids would enjoy it.

[Snowman.]

If we're heading towards the trough disruption route then theres going to be a lot of swings, in the run up the current cold spell as well as the proposed breakdown the models were abysmal with it all.

A big fat scandi high is likely easier to model than a wedge of heights with lows attempting to slide under. We have move away from the big fat scandi high as the models are now evermore keen on sending some heights NW.

[Chesil View]

i do have to chuckle sometimes.

Some points to remember  Guys.

1.its the gfs with its known biases.

2 Any nationwide breakdown it shows is way past 144

3 Past 144 Its totally out of line with the latest meto update.

4. Its the gfs

5 Its the gfs

6 Its the gfs

7 Its the gfs

8 Its the gfs

9 Its the gfs

10.Its the gfs

 

[Cold Winter Night]

Wow, for a moment I thought I was in the moaning thread.
Things are really not as bad as some portray it in here.

UKMO would still go on to build a Scandi High, on the T850 chart you can see the WAA going NE.

Admittedly, that may not be the best news for Ireland, Wales and Western parts of England, because you would have that milder air coming in for a couple of days, but an Easterly would still follow.
Eastern parts of England, like Holland, where I live, would remain in the cold to very cold conditions we are already in.

GEFS meanwhile has a better Scandi High shape than its 6z counterpart for the same timeframe (144h).
Lots still to be resolved. Don't despair.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

i do have to chuckle sometimes.

Some points to remember  Guys.

1.its the gfs with its known biases.

2 Any nationwide breakdown it shows is way past 144

3 Past 144 Its totally out of line with the latest meto update.

4. Its the gfs

5 Its the gfs

6 Its the gfs

7 Its the gfs

8 Its the gfs

9 Its the gfs

10.Its the gfs

 

To be fair, it's not just the GFS though!

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

If we're heading towards the trough disruption route then theres going to be a lot of swings, in the run up the current cold spell as well as the proposed breakdown the models were abysmal with it all.

A big fat scandi high is likely easier to model than a wedge of heights with lows attempting to slide under. We have move away from the big fat scandi high as the models are now evermore keen on sending some heights NW.

Some charts to back this.

6z is big fat scandi high with its 'tail' going NE.

12z is Scandi-Iceland block with undercutting. Tail going NW and the low is much more elongated.

Where the two meet will be cold with an Easterly. 

If you want your Easterly with snow you're going to have to ride the line a little bit.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Snowman.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

To be fair, it's not just the GFS though!

Indeed and I think a lot of the moaning is a result of many places seeing disappointing amounts of snow from this current cold spell so far.  People mention February 1986 being similar but I did get some significant snow during that month.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Don

[Jono E]

As we discussed earlier - all to play for - a multitude of options could be available. The mild has already been delayed and pushed back once and this could happen again. Stay positive folks - with set ups like this things can flip from one day to the next 

[Tim Bland]

Looks like it could be an outlier (or at least near to) in FI..signs of it appearing at the end of these short ensembles ...

[Snowman.]

I would like to add however is the OPs are probably going to be better at deducing this than the ensembles and will find changes first

 

[Man With Beard]

21 minutes ago, JimBob said:

The models have been pretty consistent with the cold snap ending at the weekend for the majority of the country and continue to firm up on the idea. 

Not so fast! That's a tasty GEFS mean chart for next Tuesday. Cold draw from the ESE, Atlantic moving closer. Be disappointed in the SW if a snow incident didn't come from this

ECM ensemble mean wasn't really that far away this morning

Two of the three clusters this morning weren't too far removed from the GEFS mean at this timeframe:

It's far from over at the weekend. Might be, but I think odds still favour a continuation into early next week.

[Panayiotis]

28 minutes ago, JimBob said:

The models have been pretty consistent with the cold snap ending at the weekend for the majority of the country and continue to firm up on the idea. 

Evidence? 

[Timmytour]

I must admit I think we are headed for disappointment.  For many the weather hasn't materialised in such a magnificent way as it was being modelled to over these past six or seven days. I still think there is a lot of shannon entrophy about, not so much revealing itself it different runs from model to model, but from different outcomes to different outcomes. I think we are on a knife edge.  two weeks time could be 0C with snow showers or 15C in springlike sunshine. I'm of the opinion it's not going to be something inbetween!   

Edited February 8, 2021 by Paul

[Weather-history]

Look at that a 1025mb low in the North Sea

[Frigid]

26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks like it could be an outlier (or at least near to) in FI..signs of it appearing at the end of these short ensembles ...

Right, the ensembles are still keeping it cold up to the 18th and quite dry too. OP looks like an outlier in Fl

[MJB]

Let's get this in and move on , at least it will give us a decent snow event 

[nick sussex]

You can’t afford two bad runs in a row when it comes to easterlies. Once the models latch onto too much energy spilling over the top you rarely get a reprieve .

The ships sailed already on the UKMO by day 4 with the flow to the east directed se . The GFS just about holds the high in a better position which allows for some potential frontal snow but even then the upstream troughing isn’t disrupting enough , you really want to see a shortwave ejecting se cleanly between day 6 and 7.

Unless the ECM changes today’s narrative and pulls something out of the bag then I think we need to lower expectations.

Lets see what that does , let’s hope the worst on offer is at least the surface flow off the continent which will at least keep it on the cold side . We certainly want none of what the GEM is offering ! 

[icykev]

6 minutes ago, MJB said:

Let's get this in and move on , at least it will give us a decent snow event 

I'm thinking it may stall over eastern Ireland. Met Eireann is keen on this, atlantic wins eventually then we gradually go into a n easterly feed.

Edited February 8, 2021 by icykev
Maybe

[Kreftysoton]

Met office are pushing the milder air in earlier now 7 or 8 degrees at the weekend.  Hopefully its wrong but feels like most sites are trending that way. Nice to have it cold and dry, already noticed how the real saturation of the ground has been sucked up by the cold.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

Lets see what that does , let’s hope the worst on offer is at least the surface flow off the continent which will at least keep it on the cold side . We certainly want none of what the GEM is offering ! 

Do you see a way back to a potential snowy spell eventually with that option?