Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo, not brilliant at 144, but still should go on to form a scandi high, needs a western correction ideally.

 

As Nick would say, I think that's past the point of no return. 

Still time for improvements and GFS looks much better. 

[Guest]

Lol ICON 12Z is a total bust for any snow later in the week in the south and south west, GFS 12z isn't much better, the front just completely fizzles out. If it carries on panning out like this I'd 100% prefer last winter to this winter.  At least when its 13C there is no chance of snow. We must be into double digits now this winter the amount of the times the models have forecast snow in the 96-120hrs only to majorly backtrack, its really wearing very thin.....

[That ECM]

@nick sussex great example of energy going se and not. 

[Matt H]

GFS 12z has a fantastic snow event next Monday. It shows what’s possible with this setup even if we don’t manage to develop another easterly.

[Griff]

Pattern needs to shift west a few hundred miles... Gem and ecm will soon tell us or rather confirm where this looks to be heading. 

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

@nick sussex great example of energy going se and not. 

Unfortunately from past experiences it will seen that the UKMO may very well be on the right track 

Can't believe in a matter of 24 hours we gone from Piller to post 

[SnoFlakeEar]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol ICON 12Z is a total bust for any snow later in the week in the south and south west, GFS 12z isn't much better, the front just completely fizzles out. If it carries on panning out like this I'd 100% prefer last winter to this winter.  At least when its 13C there is no chance of snow. We must be into double digits now this winter the amount of the times the models have forecast snow in the 96-120hrs only to majorly backtrack, its really wearing very thin.....

Think you may answered your own question there.  ICON 12Z maybe a bust but how many times have the models majorly backtracked in the 96-120 hrs period? So not all lost just yet? GFS 12Z keeps interest.

[That ECM]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Unfortunately from past experiences it will seen that the UKMO may very well be on the right track 

Can't believe in a matter of 24 hours we gone from Piller to post 

We will see. Not done yet.

[Captain Shortwave]

Honestly the chances of a true easterly are diminishing. The UKMO is develop a northern Euro high (remaining chilly).

The ridge looks unlikely to be sheered away. So dry and settled, probably quite sunny too given the wind direction that would dominate. Very similar to the ICON.

GFS isn’t going to give an easterly either.

However another route to cold is definitely possible from here as the high has every chance of moving west over the top of that negatively tilted trough.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Guest]

Oooh there is some good potential of that HP being cut-off...I agree we are not done yet....

[ancientsolar]

2 minutes ago, SnoFlakeEar said:

Think you may answered your own question there.  ICON 12Z maybe a bust but how many times have the models majorly backtracked in the 96-120 hrs period? So not all lost just yet? GFS 12Z keeps interest.

yes, we saw that Thursday was the day that the atlantic was going to take over.. then Friday.. then Sunday .. and now on the verge of Monday 

[SLEETY]

Well whats happenend in the last 24 hours? looks like this cold spell will be over by weekend with a southerly WIND ,and the high not migrating to a favoured position for another attack from the NE

So much for those mega cold looking charts from 36 hours ago,how disappointing.

[PolarWarsaw]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well whats happenend in the last 24 hours? looks like this cold spell will be over by weekend with a southerly WIND ,and the high not migrating to a favoured position for another attack from the NE

So much for those mega cold looking charts from 36 hours ago,how disappointing.

Nothing? 

There was a couple of model suites that showed some very cold charts.

Never concrete, never sustained - all deep into FI. Quite surprised to see people got even remotely giddy about them.

We are heading towards a dry/chilly spell - probaby to take us deep into the 3rd week of February. 

8 minutes ago, Griff said:

Pattern needs to shift west a few hundred miles... Gem and ecm will soon tell us or rather confirm where this looks to be heading. 

Do we? 

Not sure that's what central and western parts want to see. The craving and the 'need' now is for this winter to deliver a widespread snow event. 

I'd rather take my chances on a widespread breakdown event than spend another 3 weeks building towards and easterly that delivers streamers across eastern areas - whilst the larger part of the country is freezing and bored senseless. 

Time is running out, I'd sooner take the short term gains at this point and I don't think I would be on my own.

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Nothing? 

There was a couple of model suites that showed some very cold charts.

Never concrete, never sustained - all deep into FI. Quite surprised to see people got even remotely giddy about them.

We are heading towards a dry/chilly spell - probaby to take us deep into the 3rd week of February. 

Do we? 

Not sure that's what central and western parts want to see. The craving and the 'need' now is for this winter to deliver a widespread snow event. 

I'd rather take my chances on a widespread breakdown event than spend another 3 weeks building towards and easterly that delivers streamers across eastern areas - whilst the larger part of the country is freezing and bored senseless. 

Time is running out, I'd sooner take the short term gains at this point and I don't think I would be on my own.

Each to their own  

I'd prefer a long drawn spectacular beasterly... 

GEM doesn't seem to be heading in that direction.

 

[Johnp]

The new development over the last day or so that has diminished the chances of the easterly is the Atlantic low spawning a runner/secondary low. This has enough oomph to push our high into a positive tilt (we need it negative or vertically aligned). 

Good example of this on the GEM 

This feature is 4 days out so still time to change. 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Johnp

[Battleground Snow]

Gem is even worse than the Ukmo, at least on the Ukmo we can just about recover a scandi high, no chance of that on the gem,

I think the ECM solution from earlier is a fair shout and it's Inbetween the Ukmo and gfs.

 

 

[Griff]

Gem looks like it's ready to blow the winter cobwebs away... 

[Don]

Will probably get shot down but a poor day today with everything trending the wrong way having not seen any snow.  Hopefully things will turn around again but the rollercoaster has certainly taken a downwards dive today!  Metoffice outlook remains positive but that could change tomorrow at this rate.

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Don

[Djdazzle]

14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well whats happenend in the last 24 hours? looks like this cold spell will be over by weekend with a southerly WIND ,and the high not migrating to a favoured position for another attack from the NE

So much for those mega cold looking charts from 36 hours ago,how disappointing.

Not seeing that in the charts for the weekend. Still looks very cold.

Maybe the easterly chances have diminished, but then why get up your hopes on FI charts in the first place? The type of easterly being modelled was a serious long shot at that range.

But it may come back - after all, this current spell was meant to be over by Wednesday night if you'd believed the models a few days ago!

[Johnp]

Still a decent amount of GEFS holding firm

[SLEETY]

Gem shows you the usual crud we have to put up with in the winter,hopefully the models have it wrong for the weekend like as Djdazzle  mentioned above they had the current cold spell over by mid-week and thats not happening now,so hopefully they are just as poor for how they are predicting the weekend to pan out.

[Bartlett High]

I'd be happy with cold and dry if that's what's currently showing. 

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

quite a lot of low-flying toys in here this afternoon.

Someone said that the cold spell is over by Sunday - but when I checked GFS it is showing 850s of -7, gale force winds and a 2m temp of barely freezing.

so a lot of water (and ice!) to go under the bridge yet. Admittedly a further mega-easterly has perhaps reduced in chances after today's models but I think the cold should be here to stay for at least another week, and then plenty of further options on the table.

Hopefully anyone who does have snow can enjoy it without spoiling the mood?

[Snowman.]

Differences as early as T72 with the handling of the shortwave above the developing high, UKMO digs it quite deep into the high where as the GFS and GEM.

The GFS has also picked up a signal akin to the ECM of a stronger undercutting/slider presence later on.

Lots to play for still but as ever with Easterlies its never plain sailing. The models have a wide variety of outcomes early on which is a good thing.

 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Snowman.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

A lot can change within 120-150 hours. The models couldn’t get storm Darcy right at 48 hours out. We’ll see how far west the Scandi blocking extends, and if that exiting low phases with the parent dartboard low, and how much energy goes over or under. That will decide it. Even the breakdown on the GFS doesn’t go without a bilzzard. Plus I’m happy with what I’ve currently got! The dream of being under a wash streamer right now