Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Battleground Snow]

14 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Was it even a chance though? There was only a small handful of runs that showed an extension of cold in the snowy/notable sense was on the table.

To me we are heading out of this moderate 'cold spell' into a dry/high pressure dominated spell - unfortunately, this is the wrong time of the year for that to take shape as it will take us out towards the end of February without a true nationwide snow event. 

We need to be looking for ways to increase the chances of a widespread snowy breakdown, to make up for the total non event of this week - certainly in the case of virtually all away from favourable eastern areas. It's a shame this week looks like being 'the spell we have waited for' after everything that's been on the table this winter.

It won't be long before the mildies are out in force with 'Spring' posts.

Well the latest met office update definitely doesn't agree with this prognosis. Cold and snowy mentioned in the next 10 days.

It maybe hasn't been as snowy for everyone yet, but I would say it's a notable cold spell.

I would say the chance of the next easterly is as high as 50/50 next week, hopefully we can get some lower heights involved this time with undercuts from both west and east to please more people with more widespread snowfall.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Really?! That's not the impression I get from the 0z and 6z runs.

Ok then - the cold and snowy spell is not looking great apart from extreme fringes of the country, only Extreme SW and perhaps W Wales and the extreme E after the next day, and even they're not going to see loads, if there was loads i would still be wishing them to get it but can't see it.

[Tim Bland]

It’s been snowing for 24hrs in Hertfordshire which is a fairly central county  Re the meto outlook sounds perfect to me..western areas and southern areas get snowy episodes as the Atlantic tries and fails to get back in, Northern and eastern areas get repeat chances of today’s pattern

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s been snowing for 24hrs in Hertfordshire which is a fairly central county  Re the meto outlook sounds perfect to me..western areas and southern areas get snowy episodes as the Atlantic tries and fails to get back in, Northern and eastern areas get repeat chances of today’s pattern

And I am in no mans land with nothing lol 

[DAVE_ALLEN]

22 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Classic GFS moment, create the near perfect set up for severe cold and then...

 

Throw in a ridiculous Atlantic dartboard low.

NOw.. imagine if that dart board could become a channel low.. I wonder what the outcome would be

[ancientsolar]

Let's all hold on to our winter hats for the next GFS (should start to come out in 30mins) 

on the snow scene, we had a terrible 18z ,.. an amazing 0z .. and a meh meh 06z 

All of which are considerably better than a few days ago when the models were ready to give us a John Candy atlantic low.. by Thursday
there's absolutely no knowing what will happen after this weekend.



 

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

NOw.. imagine if that dart board could become a channel low.. I wonder what the outcome would be

Cold rain?

[nick sussex]

The faux cold v real cold debate !

Faux cold , upper levels aren’t cold but in winter you can get a shallower layer of cold close to the surface .

Real cold , upper levels are very cold and cold at the surface , for convection you must have that upper level cold .

For frontal snow in the UK the upper level needs to remain below freezing but don’t need to be very cold as long as the flow ahead of any precip is drawn from an area with below freezing dew points , this type of frontal snow is normally associated with fronts moving in after a period of colder weather where the cold becomes embedded at the surface , most common with attempted breakdowns after a spell of east or ne’rlies.

The issue moving forward is whether any high towards Scandi aligns favourably to bring back some real cold or whether the high isn’t favourably aligned and its more of the faux cold with the flow remaining with an easterly element but the 850 temps have relaxed . It will remain on the cold side because in effect you have that surface cold as long as you maintain the flow off the near Continent . The cold getting further there than originally forecast does help on that front .

One can’t underestimate the importance of your base position of the Scandi high , so how far north does get that and the position of the cold pool . If you don’t have that then you require upstream changes to recover the situation but once the cold pool has missed to the se you’ll then have to wait to see if that happens down the line .

The chances of another cold easterly within ten days will be decided within day 6  as that’s where your base position will be set .

Edited February 8, 2021 by nick sussex

[Battleground Snow]

Impressive Scandinavia high at 156 on the icon! Lots of WAA too.

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

Ends a bit "meh" need undercutting to stop euro heights.

 

[Don]

46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ok then - the cold and snowy spell is not looking great apart from extreme fringes of the country, only Extreme SW and perhaps W Wales and the extreme E after the next day, and even they're not going to see loads, if there was loads i would still be wishing them to get it but can't see it.

Most people visiting this thread today are those who have not got snow from this cold spell.  I know if I had snow now, I doubt I would have visited this thread and would either be in the regional or outside enjoying it!  Unfortunately it's back to the drawing board!

Edited February 8, 2021 by Don

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Most people visiting this thread today are those who have not got snow from this cold spell.  I know if I had snow now, I doubt I would have visited this thread today and would either be in the regional thread or outside enjoying it!  Unfortunately it's back to the drawing board!

Really Don?, With the meto update talking about potentially heavy snow for southern and western England. I don't think Mogreps is seeing the need to go back to the drawing board.

[Don]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Really Don?, With the meto update talking about potentially heavy snow for southern and western England. I don't think Mogreps is seeing the need to go back to the drawing board.

Not writing anything off, but it looks unlikely that I will get anything substantial for the next few days and now looking towards the end of the week, which is subject to change at that range.  I agree though, a good update from the Metoffice this afternoon

[StingJet]

Today's Fax 12z detailing some beautiful Convergence lines (streamers) with significant east to west penetration of heavy wintery hazardous stuff

Even way out west here on the IoA. North Wales (@15:45)

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by StingJet

[ancientsolar]

Just now, StingJet said:

Fax 12z detailing some beautiful Convergence lines (streamers) with significant east to west penetration

Even way out west here on the IoA. North Wales

 

Is that for today?

[PolarWarsaw]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

Most people visiting this thread today are those who have not got snow from this cold spell.  I know if I had snow now, I doubt I would have visited this thread and would either be in the regional or outside enjoying it!  Unfortunately it's back to the drawing board!

This can't technically be all true, there's a tiny minority of the country with snowfall deemed worthy of being outdoors in it. 

It seems to be me that the outlook is moderate/poor/very poor and for those places that aren't currently getting snow (a lot more of the country than not) the chances of actually getting any are dwindling as every model suite is completed. 

Seems odds on for us to get into a High pressure dominated scenario, possibly quite long lasting too. Not bad for surface cold, as for snow? Might as well be a Bartlett.

We desperately need a widespread snowy breakdown for the large majority of the UK to remember this spell. 

 

[rwtwm]

22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ends a bit "meh" need undercutting to stop euro heights.

 

You can see the beginnings of this on the frame posted above yours. Just to the East of Iceland, the axis is a couple of degrees East of North. The energy from the lows goes over the block as a result. 

Still a long way out though. And just one of many variations on a theme. I don't think we'll have a good handle on undercut potential until Thursday or Friday.

[StingJet]

3 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Is that for today?

Sorry yes , edited my post to reflect your comment

[Sweatyman]

56 minutes ago, MJB said:

And I am in no mans land with nothing lol 

And here 0.000000cm approx rubbish!

[That ECM]

T 144 Ukmo difficult to know how it would progress but we can compare gfs etc. Gfs at t132 differences are large. Ukmo seems slower.

Edited February 8, 2021 by That ECM

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo, not brilliant at 144, but still should go on to form a scandi high, needs a western correction ideally.

 

[StingJet]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

And here 0.000000cm approx rubbish!

Likewise mate, had sweet nada thus far this winter here save a 3hr 5mm drop couple of Sunday's back..   Patience tested but we continue to hope.  The Extended Outlooks still remain very positive for a continuation of cold, with the odd "milder" incursion, and significant potential for widespread snow events .. hang in there !

[Battleground Snow]

Some colder air and lower pressure sneaking around the back on the GFS , we need more of this.

 

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ok then - the cold and snowy spell is not looking great apart from extreme fringes of the country, only Extreme SW and perhaps W Wales and the extreme E after the next day, and even they're not going to see loads, if there was loads i would still be wishing them to get it but can't see it.

Yes I totally agree - it's freezing cold but there is no accumulated snow in much of the country. Not a Feb '91 by any stretch. However, with the cold established, you just never know when there's going to be some frontal snow. I was looking at the famous Ian McCaskill forecast on YouTube from Feb 1991, and we had that low pushing up from France which gave us all the fantastic historical event that we all refer back to. The cold is here, the patterns will change, but sooner or later there's got to be a low pressure system in the vicinity to give us (as in most of the UK) some frontal snow surely. 

Onto the 12z's to watch for this happening!

[Battleground Snow]

Well it's very different from the Ukmo at 144, but we are close to the undercut from both sides here.