Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Drifter]

15 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

ECM gets there in the end and is actually better at the end than 12z.

Something of a more ponderous evolution but good in the end.

Gives some slider snow to the south too. 

[JamesL]

This must be the first time in weeks that no one has posted the ECM charts lol

Could somebody post them up for those of us (of the older generation) that have zero tech skills please 

Thank you

[Drifter]

4 minutes ago, JamesL said:

This must be the first time in weeks that no one has posted the ECM charts lol

Could somebody post them up for those of us (of the older generation) that have zero tech skills please 

Thank you

This is the pick of them at day 8 and 9 - the slider dumps some snow on the south  

Edited February 8, 2021 by Drifter

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, JamesL said:

This must be the first time in weeks that no one has posted the ECM charts lol

Could somebody post them up for those of us (of the older generation) that have zero tech skills please 

Thank you

Thats how confident we are that we are set to stay in a freeze!!how often can we say that

[JamesL]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

This is the pick of them at day 8 and 9 - the slider dumps some snow on the south  

Thank you

[sheikhy]

@TIMBLAND hows the snow looking on that 192 hour chart on ecm?!from the south west?!

[Tim Bland]

Looking at the radar was a nice surprise this morning ! As many have said - The models really are poor at picking up convection ! 
 

Mostly great output this morning but just to keep our feet on the ground GEM shows us what can go wrong . At first glance the ensembles don’t look that cold but then I remembered we are at the coldest point of the year so the red line (climatological average) is below zero, so almost all of them keep us in the snow game

[Cloud 10]

9 minutes ago, JamesL said:

This must be the first time in weeks that no one has posted the ECM charts lol

Could somebody post them up for those of us (of the older generation) that have zero tech skills please 

Thank you

96-240hrs.

 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

@TIMBLAND hows the snow looking on that 192 hour chart on ecm?!from the south west?!

Makes it about as far as a line mid Wales to Kent so gives a covering to most of the south. It then fizzles out against the block...Position (or even existence ) is subject to massive changes though, so wouldn’t get too hung up in detail but nice for the southerners to look at ...

[Drifter]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

@TIMBLAND hows the snow looking on that 192 hour chart on ecm?!from the south west?!

 

[mulzy]

EPS mean not as good as the the GEFS - seems more progressive with the the low heights over the Atlantic - that in turn raises heights over Iberia and we never quite recover from that.  The low heights over Central Europe not really in play. Still a very good profile to the north.

[Riky91]

20 minutes ago, Drifter said:

 

As always too far away. I bet all my money it will change

[nick sussex]

Not the best of starts in terms of developing another very cold easterly.

The initial starting point for that is on rather flimsy foundations this morning , although the GFS has improved from last night the Euros have gone in a different direction , less sharpness to the upstream troughing with less energy heading se ,  the Scandi high is also further south .

The ECM gets to a decent day 9 and 10 chart but hard to have much faith in it overcoming a series of earlier hurdles .

The UKMO is particularly poor at day 6 , no chance of any easterly from there as the ships already sailed .

This might not be what people want to hear but I think we’ve taken a step back wards this morning , the foundations are on wet cement, we need to see changes between day 4 and 6 in todays  later outputs and must see more sharpening in that upstream troughing . 

In terms of maintaining a colder surface flow into next weekend that still seems likely but as for a very cold easterly returning much more uncertain on that front .

[Howie]

I thought we were looking good and now the models decide to diverge closer to the time, typical...

[Malarky]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not the best of starts in terms of developing another very cold easterly.

The initial starting point for that is on rather flimsy foundations this morning , although the GFS has improved from last night the Euros have gone in a different direction , less sharpness to the upstream troughing with less energy heading se ,  the Scandi high is also further south .

The ECM gets to a decent day 9 and 10 chart but hard to have much faith in it overcoming a series of earlier hurdles .

The UKMO is particularly poor at day 6 , no chance of any easterly from there as the ships already sailed .

This might not be what people want to hear but I think we’ve taken a step back wards this morning , the foundations are on wet cement, we need to see changes between day 4 and 6 in todays  later outputs and must see more sharpening in that upstream troughing . 

In terms of maintaining a colder surface flow into next weekend that still seems likely but as for a very cold easterly returning much more uncertain on that front .

Cheers Nick, voice of reason and rationality.

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Howie said:

I thought we were looking good and now the models decide to diverge closer to the time, typical...

All in FI though - so nothing much to worry about.

[nick sussex]

The rollercoaster never ends .

Originally the models wanted to end the current cold spell around Thursday , then there was an extension into the weekend , then they were quite bullish about at least a cold surface flow for the foreseeable future with another possible very cold easterly , now they’re less interested in that overall .

With easterlies you rarely can afford to have more than one bad run in a row ,   so today’s outputs will be decisive in terms of the chances of another very cold easterly within the next ten days .

Edited February 8, 2021 by nick sussex

[IDO]

We are now seeing the models adjust to the actual effects of the MJO signal rather than the perceived response from historical data fed algorithms. We will see if this is a ghost signal that suffers from the interference that has plagued this MJO background lately? Certainly the gefs bias of overdoing the MJO strength and the recent ecm loss of amplitude in phase 7 indicates that the robust forecast may be overplayed?

All just musings, and the next few runs should see a dampening of the UK wave strength if that signal was progressive (gem op and mean has dumped the extended northern blocking on the 0z). For the last day or so it has been a watching brief due to this uncertainty, though I am very confident of the stalling low to the west as the cold block fights back the Atlantic. No sign of mild in the gefs, for London:

Looking at around 10-days of sub -5c mean uppers added to surface cold, so a winter feel, if not the easterly nirvana we are hoping for (assuming no gem backtrack).

[MJB]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The rollercoaster never ends .

Originally the models wanted to end the current cold spell around Thursday , then there was an extension into the weekend , then they were quite bullish about at least a cold surface flow for the foreseeable future with another possible very cold easterly , now they’re less interested in that overall .

With easterlies you rarely can afford to have more than one bad run in a row ,   so today’s outputs will be decisive in terms of the chances of another very cold easterly within the next ten days .

Hi Nick 

Just for clarity to you really mean just one bad run? or a bad day ? across all models 

 

Cheers 

 

Marcus 

[Tim Bland]

That sounds very positive IDO.....have you been hacked ?!  Personally I’d rather roll the dice and let the Atlantic battle against the block a few times and deliver copious amounts of snow with the hope that the 3rd attempts slides. We done need -15 uppers, -6 will do . It’s High risk but at this point in winter it’s do or die for snow ! ️

[Anthony Burden]

Charts showing some different ideas most in fantasy island,in regards to realistic time frame 

very cold with snow showers possibly pepping up mid week.Fax should help to show any disturbances

for snow lovers.

[MJB]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That sounds very positive IDO.....have you been hacked ?!  Personally I’d rather roll the dice and let the Atlantic battle against the block a few times and deliver copious amounts of snow with the hope that the 3rd attempts slides. We done need -15 uppers, -6 will do . It’s High risk but at this point in winter it’s do or die for snow ! ️

I'm with you Tim , I'd rather see the Atlantic try to get in , the clash can really deliver 

[Dave Kightley]

1 hour ago, Drifter said:

This is the pick of them at day 8 and 9 - the slider dumps some snow on the south  

It's actually very rainy on that chart for the south as the uppers are to warm

[nick sussex]

21 minutes ago, MJB said:

Hi Nick 

Just for clarity to you really mean just one bad run? or a bad day ? across all models 

 

Cheers 

 

Marcus 

Hi , when the models start putting more energy east and the high further south that’s not a trend you want to see over a few runs . So tonight’s Euros are important . I think we’ll know by tonight as the important foundations are within day 6 if we’re to get that easterly within the day ten timeframe .

[Drifter]

10 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

It's actually very rainy on that chart for the south as the uppers are to warm

Not in my part of the ‘south’ it’s not