Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[geordiekev]

Minus 10 about to clip SE by 198 on GFS, alot of shortwave mulling about though

[Battleground Snow]

Gem at 144,

The 3 models are quite different at the moment, FI is very early right now..

[Summerstorm]

Not making it this time we really need some shortwave energy sent south earlier to prop up that high and to cut it off from the remaining heights over Southern Europe.

Still a decent run though with some cold remaining but as @CreweCold we really need that feed of cold air now otherwise with high pressure over/ to the north of us the cold air in situ will quickly mix out as seen towards day 10

[geordiekev]

GFS sending the prop in at t222

Edit, seems bit messy and not conducive to further WAA and need a tad more amplification 

Edited February 8, 2021 by geordiekev

[Summerstorm]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem at 144,

The 3 models are quite different at the moment, FI is very early right now..

After seeing this the UKMO looks ok to me that bowling ball is never going to give any WAA. 

Current output certainly seems to be looking pretty negative currently in comparion to a couple of days ago. Although we'll see how the GEFS look and what the ECM comes up with later. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Summerstorm

[geordiekev]

By 240 on GFS, much cleaner evolution and room for further WAA & retrogression, though the colder uppers are fading across the continent

Edited February 8, 2021 by geordiekev

[tight isobar]

Gfs 00z my personal fav.. for evo/signal solve.. looks decent!.. and applies that height format then retrogression.. and at minimum surface cold.. but has plenty of scope for a delivery of much colder air...

[Battleground Snow]

Hmmm, the mean and control heavily back the OP at 144, but we know these can flip at short range, ECM is going to be interesting as early as 144 today 

I'm grasping a bit at straws here but the area in question is around the southern tip of Greenland which was the last time the GFS had a victory over the other models

Edited February 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[geordiekev]

HP heights now sinking but still bringing cold uppers & cold enough for snow.

Models have panda eyes like mine, what with all this 0z model watching 

Edited February 8, 2021 by geordiekev

[geordiekev]

Well at 294 GFS brought another variation to bring an easterly and moisture laden at that 

[tight isobar]

Eps from the 12z @supporting- @500geis -mslp.. clear evidence for gaining block formats.. and either or Scandinavia heights.. or Greenland achievement.. or a morphed stamp on a connection of both.. all assumptions @this point.. but with reckon for some perhaps even more notable than is upon us!!! Needs an eye ?.. for sure.. as again we need to look &144 hrs to decipher our current incursion and its maybe.. maybe not shift!!! Great stuff atm

[Summerstorm]

GEFS looking pretty decent well over half of them showing Scandi Highs of some descriptions however the main takeaway is about 1 or 2 out of 30 support the horrow show of the GEM which is reassuring. 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Summerstorm

[geordiekev]

At 312 NH View Greenland HP looks ripe for forming Atlantic block

Edited February 8, 2021 by geordiekev

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

GEFS looking pretty decent well over half of them showing Scandi Highs of some descriptions however the main takeaway is about 1 or 2 out of 30 support the GEM which is reassuring. 

 

Yeah, it's a really strong singal.

180 mean attached, 

[tight isobar]

Chucking these in as a guide.. preety impressive I’d say.. and backs the theme for recurrence/and on a more notable scale... if guidance is of scale your thing- which imo...IS..@MST,S

Edited February 8, 2021 by tight isobar

[geordiekev]

At 336 GFS is a bit of a groundhog day situation, delivers an easterly to a North Easterly but with the jet stream to South of us showers should be of snow, but seems a bit meh in comparison to previous runs.

I guess in searching for the beast other cold & snowy solutions seem lackluster.

Note to self, it's cold & snowy

Edited February 8, 2021 by geordiekev

[geordiekev]

Well the GFS 0z seems a bit underwhelming, keeps us in between -5 and -10 850s throughout & remains cold, but the HP meandering about fails to deliver much in the way of snow though the various sliders passing through should be on the right side of marginal.

No breakdown though out to t384

[That ECM]

Control is a demonstration of the way to do it. 

[MattStoke]

Wow. Went to check the latest Euro4 update and saw this for fresh snow in Norfolk  

[That ECM]

T120 Ukmo is different to the other two. Look at Iceland.  T144 and the differences are obvious. Past T120 is JFF imo.

Edited February 8, 2021 by That ECM

[Dave Kightley]

ECM is OK get the Easterly but want cold uppers and that's low into the south further south otherwise not bad

[sheikhy]

2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

Hmmm, the mean and control heavily back the OP at 144, but we know these can flip at short range, ECM is going to be interesting as early as 144 today 

I'm grasping a bit at straws here but the area in question is around the southern tip of Greenland which was the last time the GFS had a victory over the other models

What did i say last night??!!!!mild hump flattened!!

[mulzy]

ECM is a cracking run - not perfect but very good!

[sheikhy]

Just now, mulzy said:

ECM is a cracking run - not perfect but very good!

Must be ice days on there mulzy and also gfs recovered after the 18z wobble!!

[Chesil View]

ECM gets there in the end and is actually better at the end than 12z.

Something of a more ponderous evolution but good in the end.