Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[nick sussex]

I don’t think there’s a problem with maintaining a cold surface flow from the continent into next weekend .

Regardless of what the GFS churned out just now that’s likely to verify . The issue with easterlies and getting the deep cold pool west is always trying to get the block aligned favourably .

 

[Battleground Snow]

The mean has actually improved a tad at 156, but the op and control have definitely jumped ship.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Sawel]

A really good GEFS mean chart at +156 hours.

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 hours ago, SteveB said:

Who are you and what have you done with BFTP!

I’m from outer space, he’s locked away .  Just finished grocery delivering...it is mighty cold out there.   Stunning ECM....And as UKMO is a notch back in right direction then all is ok.   Wobbles to be expected as this Scandi Hp is fine tuned.

The GFS up to it’s tricks...12z to 18z  says it all but GEM threw one in too.

 BFTP

Edited February 7, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The mean has actually improved at tad 156, but the op and control have definitely jumped ship.

 

 

Right seen enough to think the ops having a wobble maybe!!those look an improvement on earlier!!its funny how the ensembles improve and then the op decides to what its just done!!

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Right seen enough to think the ops having a wobble maybe!!those look an improvement on earlier!!its funny how the ensembles improve and then the op decides to what its just done!!

It's probably a GFS last minute wobble before it comes back onboard again, it likes to cause some drama on here I think. You can see here on the mean that the cold pool is nearer than the 12z run at 180

[Matt H]

The milder period has virtually disappeared on the GEFS 18z ensemble suite. The mean now only ‘recovers’ to -5C by the 13th February where previously it rose above 0C. Interesting times ahead for sure.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's probably a GFS last minute wobble before it comes back onboard again, it likes to cause some drama on here I think. You can see here on the mean that the cold pool is nearer than the 12z run at 180

Yup just taken a look at the midlands ensembles!!its at the top end for us from sunday!nearly an outlier!!phew!!even then its ice days all week this week!!looking forward to the upgrades on your 00z update mate

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup just taken a look at the midlands ensembles!!its at the top end for us from sunday!nearly an outlier!!phew!!even then its ice days all week this week!!looking forward to the upgrades on your 00z update mate

I might not be on the 4am shift tomorrow, especially if I watch the Superbowl, I'm sure someone can cover for me though

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

I might not be on the 4am shift tomorrow, especially if I watch the Superbowl, I'm sure someone can cover for me though

Damn!!!my man @giff!!

[chris55]

46 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z is like a car crash where it is not clear if the brakes, engine or windscreen wipers were at fault. 

T210

Id still prefer the high to be to far north at this stage, we all know how progressive GFS can be.,

[Mike Poole]

Hey! Just don’t you wish it was one of those days when the JMA finished? 

Stuck on T192 with this?  

Don’t you want to see how it ends, hint look NNW!

Edited February 7, 2021 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

things improved the last week - 8 days ago we were celebrating 3 members below -10c, now 3 drop below -15c, -18c uppers anyone??

 

Next target tomorrow, apart from solid support for between -10 and -15c, one member hitting -20c

also @sheikhy have you seen the latest radar?

Edited February 7, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

things improved the last week - 8 days ago we were celebrating 3 members below -10c, now 3 drop below -15c, -18c uppers anyone??

If the OP was in the cold cluster, this place would have gone nuts,

Mean dipping to -6 or -7 now at day 10, this is what I was expecting to see on the last suite, strong signal for cold that is!

[sheikhy]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

things improved the last week - 8 days ago we were celebrating 3 members below -10c, now 3 drop below -15c, -18c uppers anyone??

 

Next target tomorrow, apart from solid support for between -10 and -15c, one member hitting -20c

also @sheikhy have you seen the latest radar?

Yeh mate talk about lake effect snow!!!!!its exploded into life!!apparently bbc weather at 10.30 mentioned 25cms for some luky peeps under a streamer

[Rocheydub]

Meanwhile the Irish Sea is delivering SFA for us here in east coast Ireland! Radar is dead and all the short range/Hi res models are showing the same...

Edited February 8, 2021 by Rocheydub

[Battleground Snow]

Not a bad start from the icon at 180,  just need a little shift north on the high

Surface cold throughout the run

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo at 144, looks good with the WAA, should build a decent high next frame 

Edit : GFS added at 144

Edited February 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[geordiekev]

GFS out to T123, will the double shortwave disappear this time and allow a woosh

[Eugene]

GFS 00Z is a lot better than UKMO 00Z this morning. 

[geordiekev]

12 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo at 144, looks good with the WAA, should build a decent high next frame 

Edit : GFS added at 144

Yep, looks promising  what drama this hobby is

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Eugene said:

GFS 00Z is a lot better than UKMO 00Z this morning. 

I think they are both good, Ukmo is still cold at surface, and is just a slower evolution on developing the high, GFS would be preferable though

[geordiekev]

Gfs looking to be carbon copy of yesterday 0z, no shortwave drama.

Will we get another cut off high & retrogress like yesterday.

Fascinating indeed

[Summerstorm]

UKMO is very progressive with the low compared to the GFS and means a weaker ridge that will likely collapse over the UK. 

This is apparent as early as Day 4. 

Despite the fact that the GFS has over egged the low by 10mbars it has a better tilt leading to much better WAA and a stronger ridge. 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Summerstorm

[geordiekev]

Looking good out to 186 on GFS, just need a breakaway low to prop the high and looks like room to retrogress as US storm seems less potent