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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

It’s all shunted to Far East on the 18z . Night see u tomorrow

8B2A965E-47C4-4C5E-807B-8DC835433D9E.png

Famous last words, bound to be spectacular at..... Day 10

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
Just now, Howie said:

Just when you thought you were getting consistency.....

Yup and i had a feeling this was gona happen!!i just struggled to see how it could top the 12z!!just when we saw the ecm and ukmo improve!!!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Your culprit is these two buggers.

image.thumb.png.bfa356bae022a43238420851d688f40f.png

12z had one shortwave that was the left one, 18z spawns two stopping the high from stretching NE.

 

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
Just now, Snowman. said:

Your culprit is these two buggers.

image.thumb.png.bfa356bae022a43238420851d688f40f.png

12z had one shortwave that was the left one, 18z spawns two stopping the high from stretching NE.

 

Oh no not shortwave drama creeping into the mess

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Yup and i had a feeling this was gona happen!!i just struggled to see how it could top the 12z!!just when we saw the ecm and ukmo improve!!!

Yeah it can't ever be plain sailing can it

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Matthew Gill Contributor

Matthew Gill

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton
  • Location: Nuneaton
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Your culprit is these two buggers.

image.thumb.png.bfa356bae022a43238420851d688f40f.png

12z had one shortwave that was the left one, 18z spawns two stopping the high from stretching NE.

 

At least we would get some snow out of this instead of just cold dry air I suppose

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is still going to end up a stonker, watch the renewed vertical WAA in a minute.

image.thumb.png.a4c7140747db0b106b9d557c59233b40.png

Well there's still a lot of cold near

gfsnh-1-186.png

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup and i had a feeling this was gona happen!!i just struggled to see how it could top the 12z!!just when we saw the ecm and ukmo improve!!!

Technically it hasnt happened. Don’t get too caught up, especially when it comes to the GFS. Start to get worried if the ECM or UKMO start pulling away from the idea 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup and i had a feeling this was gona happen!!i just struggled to see how it could top the 12z!!just when we saw the ecm and ukmo improve!!!

but the snow event next Sun!!!!!!!

prectypeuktopo.png

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but the snow event next Sun!!!!!!!

prectypeuktopo.png

Yup bit further east so more snow!!!but when comparing this run to the mean and ecm mean it seems an outlier!!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

called it wrong, two areas of troughing engaged now, always game over when that happens to the North of UK - onto the GEFS now.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Just shows you how difficult easterlies with a deep cold pool are to land .

However I certainly wouldn’t lose any sleep over one GFS run. 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Do we trust the 955mb dartboard low?

image.thumb.png.5a06b515cee70b8f47e423b5fccb09e9.png

 

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mbrothers Aficionado

mbrothers

Posted
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z is like a car crash where it is not clear if the brakes, engine or windscreen wipers were at fault. 

T210

F796FFBF-4D9A-4AA8-A43A-2994AA93CE15.thumb.png.45b87d4cb76cfbe19b3b13ec54af0e4a.png

What is funny tho is that suddenly everyone saw it coming! Not that the last 30 pages could prove it . 

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted
3 hours ago, weathercold said:

Could you explain for us amateurs how the block needs to align for a feb 91 style set up? The current projections look freezing but v dry with high pressure in charge post this week. Thanks 

The block needs to be far enough north to allow one of 2 things. Either a Euro trough underneath that develops over northern Italy and moves north into the block (Feb 91) or an Atlantic that stays active and pushes fronts west to east disrupting as they hit the block, sliding south and dropping a lot of snow on the collision zone. For a widespread rather than localised south England event we would be better off with the Feb 91 setup. To get it we therefore need the block to as far north as possible. If it sits too close to the U.K. we will be dry.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Popular Post
Posted
Just now, mbrothers said:

What is funny tho is that suddenly everyone saw it coming! Not that the last 30 pages could prove it . 

That’s because subsequent runs by every model won’t show this at all. Enjoy the next 30 pages!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That’s because subsequent runs by every model won’t show this at all. Enjoy the next 30 pages!

In in any case cold still hasn't cleared East coast yet at T130 on an ensemble mean where as it had on the 12z. decent suite coming up hopefully, not sure if it will beat last nights though!.

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ancientsolar Community Regular

ancientsolar

Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
Posted

not overly concerned about this one chart. ~ (I think referred as the members?) people have showed a wide range of them, some of their uppers -10.. others +10 

 We're talking ahead to a low that is only just developing.. an easterly which continually changes its influence.. and now also what happens North of us.. -- the differences are too dramatic to have concluded its ultimate output as shown by each 6 hourly update. We will probably be looking at this all the way up until Wednesday,. when we should feel confident (unless we have a marginal situation)

None the less.. the whole battle carries some very interesting possibilities.. 
Extreme cold dry air from the East.
A snow battle ground over us 
from the West.. the strength of the winds 

Exciting times!

 

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