Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[johnholmes]

3 hours ago, wellington boot said:

I think it might also have led with picking the movement of the LP yesterday into today and the less impressive 850s as a result (hence my earlier question that was ignored...).

Re this next spell, I'm interested to see the EC/GFS anomaly charts are fully onboard. Less excitingly, the NOAA charts show significantly meridional flow, but at 8-14 days, it is less pronounced than at 8-10, and unlike the EC/GFS, there's no 'closed circulation' or reversal in the flow. Interested to see tonight's, and more runs probably needed. Would be good to hear @johnholmes's thoughts if he hasn't already been in.

 

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Sunday 7 th

Not had chance to look at ECMWF so just ec-gfs and NOAA

Ec-gfs at first glance  on ec the main trough shows up sharper aligned nw-se roughly (same direction last time but not so sharp then); ridge is now upper centre over uk, this part similar on gfs but trough a touch different;, similar on both if n far w, no sign of meridional out there

Noaa looks much as it did 24 hour ago in all aspects, , some meridional pattern to far w, but trough-ridge not far enough east, to me, to trigger similar downstream; anyway this complicated by the unusual lay out of heights and negative values west of the uk. It is an unusual pattern, I think,so trying to decide what it means is beyond me at the moment, the 8-14 shows a more atlantic driven chart beneath the unusual shaped/direction of the main trough, again, what does this suggest?

Questions but no answers with just a quick analysis. More time tomorrow to put my thinking cap on and check out the ECMWF set of charts.  

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z T120 v 12z T126, with a suggestion from me as to where the blocking might go, purely speculative and with some artistic licence!

 

[Mike Poole]

You do have to wonder at the moment if the scandi high is a ghost, and the models are really going for Greenland now, once the high pressure has established itself north of the UK? 

[Matt H]

Decent JMA 12z out to t192. It would only take a small shift north of the ridge to be an excellent chart.

 

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You do have to wonder at the moment if the scandi high is a ghost, and the models are really going for Greenland now, once the high pressure has established itself north of the UK? 

I do feel there's still a sense of "searching" in the models. I'm reluctant to call it. Mind you, I've given up calling the snow chances for anywhere this week!

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You do have to wonder at the moment if the scandi high is a ghost, and the models are really going for Greenland now, once the high pressure has established itself north of the UK? 

I'm frazzled this evening so no ideas from me only some stating the obvious, very cold near by on icon at 120

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

Before the 18's rollout.

For those who can comment on these things (definitely not me), with regards today's weather, it would be interesting to know which model(s) picked up the signal first that the synoptics would turn out as they did and forecasted that today would be mainly snowy in the south east. Also how many days ago those signals were picked up. 

[Mike Poole]

You can get carried away with this hobby, to bring us back grounded here’s the GFS 18z T6 chart, easterly and 1060 Greenland high:

The new normal...

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You do have to wonder at the moment if the scandi high is a ghost, and the models are really going for Greenland now, once the high pressure has established itself north of the UK? 

I think what has scuppered us for a brutal blast in the next 10 days is it looks like to me there is conflicting signals for a Greenland and a Scandi, its like it looks like it goes for a scandi then another signal kicks in just in time to stop it and we end up with some brilliant WAA vertically on the map and the signal is retrogression by that point but it means we have a long vertical rectangle and are in no mans land with just surface cold albeit pretty severely cold.

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi you lot,not been on here recently as i have been in my regional thread but...

i am liking the De-built ECM ens

temps/dew points and wind direction,pretty much below freezing all the way and look at the wind direction,the majority go for an E-NE wind all the way

the EPS at day ten MSLP/500mb and temp anomalies do show a Scandi high of 1032mb and a def trend of getting colder too than recent last few days

latest from CPC...

what Atlantic?,...PFFFT!!!

 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

What am I looking for on the pub run today, apart from much needed beer?!  

Well it is about T168, when the WAA goes up, will it go more towards Greenland than scandi?  Like the ICON threatened to...  

[chris55]

2 hours ago, Cold Winter Night said:

I suppose for a Feb 1991 style set up it should align like Feb 1991

That would be like this:

GFS is not far from it.

To be fair we were only a nats whisker away from a similar set up today. If DARCY had set up over Southern England instead of Holland it could have been an historic event for the southern half of the UK. We need all the ingredients to align perfectly though, and back in feb 91 they did just that.

 

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi you lot,not been on here recently as i have been in my regional thread but...

i am liking the De-built ECM ens

temps/dew points and wind direction,pretty much below freezing all the way and look at the wind direction,the majority go for an E-NE wind all the way

the EPS at day ten MSLP/500mb and temp anomalies do show a Scandi high of 1036mb and a def trend of getting colder too than recent last few days

latest from CPC...

what Atlantic?,...PFFFT!!!

 

 

You can see how the giant low in the Atlantic is scooping up air from the tropics and throwing it into the Arctic, wild 

[Doctor96]

the gfs  from this morning showed most of england under  -11 uppers but it is milder than it should be and i have had rain recently.  but then the new gfs 6pm comes out and the uppers are now -10 instead of the -11 . how can these things change , it is like the morning prediction was incorrect only a few hrs later. 

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

To be fair we were only a nats whisker away from a similar set up today. If DARCY had set up over Southern England instead of Holland it could have been an historic event for the southern half of the UK. We need all the ingredients to align perfectly though, and back in feb 91 they did just that.

 

There was "That GFS" run that did.

 

Would have been a top 3 event.

Ahh well. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 hours ago, Panayiotis said:

Did you see the 00z UKMO? The high over Scandi was collapsing at 144hrs 

I must have got stuck on the 12z yesterday then

 

BFTP

 

[Griff]

I'm playing spot the difference at 108, slightly less amplified but very similar to here 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Griff

[ANYWEATHER]

Why are people fed up with what's on the plate ? An amazing suite from gfs and ecm in the reliable time frame for coldies have patience. ......!

[Mike Poole]

I think it is all about how the models handle the WWA after about now, T114, that low and that WAA will decide it:

Edited February 7, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think it is all about how the models handle the WWA after about now, T114, that low and that WAA will decide it:

Fine margins , just on the wrong side for now

[Johnp]

This little bugger could topple it.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Johnp

[Howie]

Just now, Griff said:

Fine margins , just on the wrong side for now

Ouch

[Frigid]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Why are people fed up with what's on the plate ? An amazing suite from gfs and ecm in the reliable time frame for coldies have patience. ......!

Because of the lack of snow I assume. Personally I feel like, let the cold in first and worry about the prospect of any snowfall later on, considering how sporadic it can be

[sheikhy]

Well well well!!going the wrong way on the 18z!!!!!lets hope it dont carry on on the 00z run!!

[ICE COLD]

It’s all shunted to Far East on the 18z . Night see u tomorrow