Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[ICE COLD]

We seem to of missed out the milder blip .

ECM 192 and 216 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I ain't gonna argue with that...The south for the first time this Winter becoming colder than the North...How ya like them apples

[Drifter]

The only slight issue as it wouldn’t be a very snowy run at all.  We need the high further north like gfs has it. 

[tight isobar]

It just gets better tbh... February always looked the dapper man.. and is living up.. so it would seem.. flow after flow.. is the notion!

Edited February 7, 2021 by tight isobar

[Captain Shortwave]

Given the fairly solid trend in the mid range, we can at least see whether the models are trying to trend colder and further north with this high.

Day 9 vs yesterdays day 10

      

 

Definitely a move northwards and now we have a clean cold flow underneath that high. It wouldn't take much to get a much stronger and colder easterly like the GFS.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

does it remind me of Mar 11th 2013? Channel Islands snowfest, prefer GFS with high further north

[Drifter]

240 should show retrogression nw and a renewed trough down to the east?

[sheikhy]

Is gfs leading the way?!!!

[nick sussex]

Not quite the latter stages we hoped for but there is plenty of time for changes.

Overall a great evening for coldies . No sign of milder conditions for the foreseeable future .

It’s great to be able to say that .

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

240 should show retrogression nw and a renewed trough down to the east?

yep, that’s the direction of travel at T240, seems nothing can stop this cold spell...

[Matt H]

How the ‘mild blip’ started vs how it’s going.

 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

yep, that’s the direction of travel at T240, seems nothing can stop this cold spell...

Love how that dartboard low has just given up lol

[Drifter]

Check out the 850s on the day 10 chart. Where does all the cold go?  Having seen the synoptics between day 9 and 10 it seems implausible. Would still be freezing cold on the ground though. 

[tight isobar]

Ends with signal=retrogression... after yet more easterly incursion..winter in old fashioned full flow.... great stuff

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Howie said:

Love how that dartboard low has just given up lol

Exhausted itself with all that WAA to set this thing up!  

[Jason M]

5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

The only slight issue as it wouldn’t be a very snowy run at all.  We need the high further north like gfs has it. 

Yes, would be very dry. Its the sort of set up where the air is so dry that you don't even get frost (at least in the traditional sense). Would think its cold, grey and dry. Might change, but its not looking like a convective easterly at present.

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

How the ‘mild blip’ started vs how it’s going.

 

Incredible, isn't it?

And at 240h we it's still cold, and that is Day 11 of the cold spell already.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Cold Winter Night

[WorldExplore]

Probably the very few times seen such a blob out in the Atlantic being chewed up and go under. 

#Stubborn Strong block.

[CentralSouthernSnow]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I ain't gonna argue with that...The south for the first time this Winter becoming colder than the North...How ya like them apples

About time! South about to get our share of cold and snow

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Exhausted itself with all that WAA to set this thing up!  

It's crazy how the pattern seems to be sustaining itself, usually those lows off the eastern seaboard would send us mild and wet but the blocking to the east sticks them up, robs them of their energy and sends them packing to the south

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Check out the 850s on the day 10 chart. Where does all the cold go?  Having seen the synoptics between day 9 and 10 it seems implausible. Would still be freezing cold on the ground though. 

I was going to ask that question myself

[geordiekev]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Ends with signal=retrogression... after yet more easterly incursion..winter in old fashioned full flow.... great stuff

So the mild blip is turning into an Icelandic blimp, all models playing with variation of a good trend.

And in February, just wow

[CentralSouthernSnow]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not quite the latter stages we hoped for but there is plenty of time for changes.

Overall a great evening for coldies . No sign of milder conditions for the foreseeable future .

It’s great to be able to say that .

How come it isn’t the latter stages you hoped for? These charts look great for cold and snow especially in south! 

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

How come it isn’t the latter stages you hoped for? These charts look great for cold and snow especially in south! 

Very cold, yes. Snowy, not really. Pressure is far too high.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Howie said:

It's crazy how the pattern seems to be sustaining itself, usually those lows off the eastern seaboard would send us mild and wet but the blocking to the east sticks them up, robs them of their energy and sends them packing to the south

Easterly setups can be self sustaining, or at least re-inforcing, it just doesn’t happen much these days, last time was March 2018, before it March 2013.  

But there’s no vortex there to push things, there is an element of summer patterns to our locale in the depth of winter, thanks to the SSW(s) and what went before, some of us have been chasing exactly this for fully two months!!! Delivery!!!