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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, Griff said:

 

Not really much between this and gfs 12z at this stage to be honest 

Guess I weight the ECM more Griff, having said that the GFS did go for this against its bias...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM/GFS and UKMO have the shortwave leaving Canada much further west at day 5. The GEM has that much further east already phasing with the deep upstream low .

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Posted
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
6 minutes ago, Griff said:

Looks further to the West than GFS 12z

ECH1-96 (1).gif

I was just thinking it looks less robust and further east...?

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

ECM UKMO on the same page 144 168ECM1-168.thumb.gif.2d17254a5bdfe5df717244068e058f7a.gifUW144-21-1.thumb.gif.2f7aa147f16e48b05ab4c99c37a3d057.gif

Edited by icykev
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, Rob K said:

I was just thinking it looks less robust and further east...?

Are you comparing on Meteociel, seems to move as described, unless charts don't align correctly?

Edit: ecm definitely has  everything further west at 96 hours

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
1 minute ago, icykev said:

ECM UKMO on the same page 144ECM1-168.thumb.gif.2d17254a5bdfe5df717244068e058f7a.gifUW144-21-1.thumb.gif.2f7aa147f16e48b05ab4c99c37a3d057.gif

What's the thinking behind this set up? Moist/mild southerlies being pulled up then clashing with frigid easterlies?

 

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
1 minute ago, thestixx said:

What's the thinking behind this set up? Moist/mild southerlies being pulled up then clashing with frigid easterlies?

 

Cold south / south easterlies off a frigid continent, followed by even colder, snow laden easterlies.

That’s the plan anyway. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, thestixx said:

What's the thinking behind this set up? Moist/mild southerlies being pulled up then clashing with frigid easterlies?

 

Certainly at T144, look at the uppers across the country.  Only a temporary incursion given probable further evolution of the blocking high north.

1168EC95-B40B-411F-91F2-F11F6F758EDB.thumb.gif.e221fd1bd9620f593a9e2f7b4141cd7e.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

ECM 12z is looking fantastic at t168.

D5F876B2-B709-4197-BC82-08DA24D5C932.png

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM 168

B3250CD8-1A82-4492-AE17-A52F6384A0B8.png

850 pushing west back through Ireland at image.thumb.png.fe2cc5e00c9c68e3836c7275deeea5f2.png 168

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ecm a hares breath from cracking.. should be complete reload nxt frames...let get the wrap of heights!!

78F588DF-5F57-4615-BC55-536C07D2558A.gif

99F41277-B360-4DDC-B3DC-B770C2EC37D5.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM thankfully isn’t supporting the GEM . 

And if you look at the base of the trough it’s sharper also with less energy spilling east near Iceland . So encouraging , we stay on track to avoid any milder conditions.

Thats ECM and UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UKV will please those further west

B83D9081-DEA8-44DA-98DA-0ABFE2AF465C.jpeg

2B66466A-940E-4C96-A0A2-C2E34AFCF14E.jpeg

Pfft - that stops about the same distance to my west as today’s did to my east. 

Edited by Drifter
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm a hares breath from cracking.. should be complete reload nxt frames...

78F588DF-5F57-4615-BC55-536C07D2558A.gif

99F41277-B360-4DDC-B3DC-B770C2EC37D5.gif

Cracking = great

Rather than

Cracking = about to break? 

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