Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[MJB]

A right old battle 

[Doctor96]

can you believe these amazing max temperatures , it reminds me of when i was 14 in 1979 

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Classic GFS moment, create the near perfect set up for severe cold and then...

 

Throw in a ridiculous Atlantic dartboard low.

I'm I right to assume that low wouldn't be anywhere near as deep and round as that?

[Doctor96]

sorry i posted averag temps but this is max temps 

[Griff]

Longest breakdown..... Ever! 

[Captain Shortwave]

4 minutes ago, Howie said:

I'm I right to assume that low wouldn't be anywhere near as deep and round as that?

Not a chance that would happen the way the GFS shows. However the GEM does show how things might not go our way as a flatter upstream pattern produces a broader ridge that will likely be chilly and dry instead of cold and snowy.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[goosey007]

1 minute ago, Doctor96 said:

sorry i posted averag temps but this is max temps 

I bet the beeb still show 3 degrees ...any way great chart over any snowf cover God knows what it will be -10 widely 

[Tim Bland]

If that low ends up that deep ill run naked through Stevenage town...which to be honest won’t be that bad as there no one there Even if it did we would get a blizzard before the breakdown 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Ninman said:

This mild interlude that was progged a couple of days ago isn't going to happen. This is an outstanding chart and to me, looks on the money. No bucket loads of shortwave drama to get through either. So, so exciting! 

Yep it’s amazing . Look at this, the cold never even leaves the east . From now until at least day 10 .

Now -

Wed-

Fri

Sun-

Next Mon 

Next Tues 

That is absolutely brutal

[Man With Beard]

Haven't seen this since 1991

[Ice Day]

GEFS mean at 150

That's a strong signal, where does it go thereafter is the million dollar question!?

[MJB]

Huge snowstorm if verified but I doubt it will - the one consistent is it looks like we get a block for another week 

[nick sussex]

Excellent GFS 12 hrs run with more energy disrupting se towards southern France at the key time .

Also a better jet cutback sw wards towards the UK, this is always a big hurdle when you want to get the deep cold pool on track to advect sw wards .

The UKMO isn’t as good at day 6 , too much energy to the north which keeps the high further south , also flatter with the upstream troughing , you need that more sharp with a more vertical flow ahead of it . Still time though for that to change .

Lets see what the ECM does later .

[Tim Bland]

Even a hurricane can’t break through. It sends a few waves of snow which make it into the south it then gives up and just sits there! 

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Not a chance that would happen the way the GFS shows. However the GEM does show how things might not go our way as a flatter upstream pattern produces a broader ridge that will likely be chilly and dry instead of cold and snowy.

Not done and dusted at all yet, even at just D5. However, the GFS set-up could result in a locked-in pattern lasting some time which, I am fairly sure, I haven't seen at the height of winter in my lifetime.

[Chesil View]

Just seen the gfs12z chart for Feb 19th and thought I've seen that before somewhere.

Oh yes here it is

[Battleground Snow]

Control bringing the deep cold too.

[ICE COLD]

GEFS mean at T168 such a strong signal. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS 12 z on it’s own.  The further push east on the 06z picked up on by UKMO, GEM.  Currently that isn’t great but by no means done deal as UKMO is recoverable from t144.  But not a pleasant development but I suppose we are going to see varying outcomes over next few days.

Edit...Icon with GFS

got to admit...this is a poor start down here, quite tame and not severe at all....just ‘wintry’

 

BFTP

Edited February 7, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ninman]

19 minutes ago, MJB said:

Monster low cold well be a very quick snow to rain event here 

Where have we seen this scenario before? Deja vu at its finest! Would be ridiculous if we get in to this type of repeating pattern.  Not expecting this but would be weary of a quick breakdown with this depth of cold built up over the UK

 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

GFS 12 z on it’s own.  The further push east on the 06z picked up on by UKMO, GEM.  Currently that isn’t great but by no means done deal.  But not a pleasant development 
 

BFTP

I think the Ukmo would still be a very good run, it just wouldn't get the deep cold to us as quickly as the GFS, I'll pretend the gem didn't happen today though haha.

[Rob K]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

I think the Ukmo would still be a very good run, it just wouldn't get the deep cold to us as quickly as the GFS, I'll pretend the gem didn't happen today though haha.

Not sure - I think the GEM looks rather similar to the UKMO so it might go the same way and sink the block quickly.

GFS mean and control look great though.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Rob K said:

Not sure - I think the GEM looks rather similar to the UKMO so it might go the same way and sink the block quickly.

GFS mean and control look great though.

Really?

Both Ukmo and gfs have better WAA, albeit the GFS is still much better, gem looks much different.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Really?

Both Ukmo and gfs have better WAA, albeit the GFS is still much better, gem looks much different.

Mate ignore it!!looks nothing like gem at all!!more like gfs and is an upgrade on this morning!!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Mate ignore it!!looks nothing like gem at all!!more like gfs and is an upgrade on this morning!!!

The UKMO is NOT an upgrade on this morning.

It’s recoverable as it does look more towards GFS but could still go either way...GFS looks more robust, GEM much less so

BFTP

Edited February 7, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST