Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Tim Bland]

Great to see ensembles catching onto the trend, we go slightly warmer then back into the freezer ...

[Paul_1978]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Holey shmokes

Nice to look at but at 384 hours it may as well go in the bin!

[Blessed Weather]

A few posts have been moved to the February Cold Spell Discussion thread. Alternatively you can post in your Regional thread. This thread is for model output discussion please. Thanks.

 

[DIS1970]

57 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Holey shmokes

Fifteen days time!

Edited February 7, 2021 by DIS1970

[Tim Bland]

Ensembles show it’s possible as do other models like GEM which could evolve to a similar solution. @Paul_1978@DIS1970 why do you think it’s unlikely and what do you think is likely? Which model do you think has the correct pattern and can you share the image?  That would be more  akin to ‘model discussion’ than just saying ‘not going to happen’ or ‘it’s FI so bin it’. Fair enough if you think that but if every member just wrote things like that we would just have a very boring thread

icon stays cold out to Friday but still manages to push some some light snow across most areas. Perhaps some heavier into the south west / South Wales 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Tim Bland

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hi there fellow snowchasers..At long last you SE folks have got your wish...plenty to the NE are seeing some good streamers also. Nothing going on here right now and I'm not bitter Anyway the cold snap is reluctant to recede and if anything after a very brief blip we have significant cold once again knocking the door and perhaps putting us back into the fridge again. I think ECM is now beginning to toy with this idea later too...perhaps the models at this stage latching onto the final round of warmings that occurred earlier this week. Enjoy the snow and know hard feelings from me..

[DIS1970]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Ensembles show it’s possible as do other models like GEM which could evolve to a similar solution. @Paul_1978@DIS1970 why do you think it’s unlikely and what do you think is likely? Which model do you think has the correct pattern and can you share the image?  That would be more  akin to ‘model discussion’ than just saying ‘not going to happen’ or ‘it’s FI so bin it’. Fair enough if you think that but if every member just wrote things like that we would just have a very boring thread

3 days ahead is difficult enough, yes, a very, very slight possibility of that occurring, yes, but this is the UK and there will another 60 runs between then and now.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Ensembles show it’s possible as do other models like GEM which could evolve to a similar solution. @Paul_1978@DIS1970 why do you think it’s unlikely and what do you think is likely? Which model do you think has the correct pattern and can you share the image?  That would be more  akin to ‘model discussion’ than just saying ‘not going to happen’ or ‘it’s FI so bin it’. Fair enough if you think that but if every member just wrote things like that we would just have a very boring thread

I can't work that one out Tim...The Gem has been very good with modelling of this cold...the cold continues through till next Friday which is 5 days away,before a slight ease up and a couple of days later its possibly very cold again..and for folks to say its not going to happen especially after this one as and on top of a final strat warming is pretty strange. Sour grapes perhaps at a lack of snow..the door is a jar for further significant cold snaps if you ask me.

[Battleground Snow]

I've marked up the early changes to look out for on upcoming 06z run.

We need the low pressure to hold out more west and the purple line to pump up Warm air advection in this direction to help form the Scandi high in a more favourable orientation later on.

Then  energy can attack the high at the base from both west and east, this will allow the deeper cold pool east to march west

[Tim Bland]

High res models really breaking out the showers / streamers starting later this afternoon & getting right across to the West. If you end up under one of these streamers you could end up with similar totals to the Far East / south east by end of play Monday!

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

High res models really breaking out the showers / streamers starting later this afternoon & getting right across to the West. If you end up under one of these streamers you could end up with similar totals to the Far East / south east by end of play Monday!

There is noway for models to accurately predict the intensity of these, they could be weaker or (hopefully) stronger than modelled, I have a noticed a small trend for them to be modelled  stronger the nearer we are getting to t0 though

[Battleground Snow]

A little nudge west at 132!

Could be just enough later on

[Tim Bland]

Western areas will be happy with this outcome...

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

High res models really breaking out the showers / streamers starting later this afternoon & getting right across to the West. If you end up under one of these streamers you could end up with similar totals to the Far East / south east by end of play Monday!

Bbc forecast has streamers breaking over the midlands and continuing all night tonight and all day tomorrow!!not surprised to see those totals on euro4!

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Western areas will be happy with this outcome...

Keep coming East please ................just a bit 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

A little nudge west at 132!

Could be just enough later on

Keep those westward corrections coming battleground!!think ecm 12z will be better as well after looking at the mean!

[That ECM]

I know some are sceptical about later frame gfs output, fair enough. However these heights build at T132 on.  You can’t have wonderful looking charts without this happening. Strong signal continues.

Edited February 7, 2021 by That ECM

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Keep those westward corrections coming battleground!!think ecm 12z will be better as well after looking at the mean!

Look at the waa by 150! Has created a 1050mb scandi high!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Look at the waa by 150! Has created a 1050mb scandi high!

Pics pics!!!!is it futher west battleground!!

[Battleground Snow]

GFS 168, this is going to be touch and go to whether we can get the cold pool marching towards us at 192!

[Harsh Climate]

Come to daddy 

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

29 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

3 days ahead is difficult enough, yes, a very, very slight possibility of that occurring, yes, but this is the UK and there will another 60 runs between then and now.

Tim's point/question was a very pertinent one. No problem at all if you are only interested in 3+ days - same as the majority of the UK population! But for +72, most apps will give a good guide (except for specifics of snowfall in these sorts of setups etc). This thread has been at its most helpful when members have explained what is shown at longer timeframes and assessed the different probabilities of it. Longer term cold evolutions seem to be entirely within probability at the moment. It's much more difficult for a member to explain why/how etc than for someone to simply say it won't/can't happen.

[Tim Bland]

There’s a second push early next week which delivers some more patchy snow but it’s getting a bit marginal by this point ..

[sheikhy]

Another freezing run into the weekend!!

[Harsh Climate]

The motherload is almost upon us!