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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
46 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Retrogression to Greenland discussed monday as well in regionals potentially tied to mjo phase 8?

Hopefully not. Let's hope it stays in phase 7 as long as possible. Phase 8 often flatters to deceive. When models 1st pickup on phase 8 they show impressive Greenland high but as time ticks down we more often then not end up with west based -Nao. Ideally the MJO meanders around the border of 7&8 at decent amplitude supporting prolonged scandie high pushing towards Iceland.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here’s the chart, that is, we believe the record....

F542426B-5979-42FD-94FA-9E195FCAD8CB.thumb.png.86de4ab61afe96f83ea12edd41e49d8f.png

 

I said -17 would be breached on this suite - how about jan 87 leveller?

image.thumb.png.5c9f27b8d8c699ec1c3a77fc51ddc5ee.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
1 minute ago, pages said:

Hopefully not. Let's hope it stays in phase 7 as long as possible. Phase 8 often flatters to deceive. When models 1st pickup on phase 8 they show impressive Greenland high but as time ticks down we more often then not end up with west based -Nao. Ideally the MJO meanders around the border of 7&8 at decent amplitude supporting prolonged scandie high pushing towards Iceland.

Yes very good point.

Phase 8 at high amplitude is very reminiscent of march 2018 with a wham bam thank you mam type cold period but signs are there and have been there for this meandering you speak of. If you look at the 18z the high pressure is a murr sausage between greenland and scandi. This spell has to end however and for me the move into 8 then 1 is how it does.

West based NAO end of Feb with severl impactcul battle ground snow falls. 

The met i believe are on my line of thinking as well. 

Read the text forecast upto March 6th

Fitst or second week in march would be my loose thinking for the end. 

Sure most would he happy at that stage though!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gefs mean has a retrogression of the high into Greenland from 192-336...

anim_nnw3.thumb.gif.f3a99ab4a329fe3f10af90222ebfdd6d.gif

Yes. Right on cue. If not a little too quick however

Edited by Scott Ingham
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Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

that's the best run i've ever seen.

Never one for little to express....but one word....Insane!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

You think you seen it all in the last week and then this comes out 

48D2C308-5B8F-4000-A9DD-918A297AB3C1.png

9B90A134-2A19-4700-A85C-B3100BC85D33.png

Just -14's in my back yard...balmy Devon yet again...

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Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth
46 minutes ago, BLIZZARDMAN said:

-20 HAS TOUCHED THE COAST, INSANE ENSEMBLE

gens-6-0-312.png

A monumentus day has just unfolded....The 06th February, heralds and introduces a brand new weather model.......ICC.....

If Carlsberg Could....

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Greenland highs are awful for the south of uk, hopefully it’s still scandi 

Scandi highs are awful for most far Western areas, hopefully it's a Greenland. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Scandi highs are awful for most far Western areas, hopefully it's a Greenland. 

Yeah we def want a Greenland one.

Let's the lot in the South have some much deserved Snow this week, then let the Big Boys from the North join the fun. .

With them charts we might even need get our Jumpers out next Couple of weeks

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Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
3 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

With them charts we might even need get our Jumpers out next Couple of weeks

Been such a long time since I've worn one I've forgotten what it's like!

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Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

New winner? P6

I have a feeling 330am icon club will have a few more members tomorrow

 

gensnh-6-1-312.png

gensnh-6-0-312.png

lol .. just returned to the laptop after a break to watch "Greenland" on Amazon .. to see the end of the 18z GFS run ..... talk about "Eye Candy"  .. is the P6 also dialling in a shift of the earth's axis .. aka Iceland is the new North Pole

Edited by StingJet
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Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
10 minutes ago, StingJet said:

lol .. just returned to the laptop after a break to watch "Greenland" on Amazon .. to see the end of the 18z GFS run ..... talk about "Eye Candy"  .. is the P6 also dialling in a shift of the earth's axis .. aka Iceland is the new North Pole

850 Anomaly is off the richter scale 

image.thumb.png.3bca60a13cfc1f68e1910e44f493b906.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

A different look at some of the instruments available to us. Looking at the wind direction from the GEFS for Cardiff, we see no westerly influence from any of the members over the next few weeks! Quite remarkable and considering we had a reversal in the strat, it sure does seem like we are having it printed on our troposphere. 

DBD93F72-2A6C-4642-8E3A-9779526C25BB.jpeg

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
3 hours ago, Smiler1709 said:

What I will say on the subject of extreme cold, people rightly saying that it’s all going to go badly when these beauts don’t materialise, but what I will say is the trend is there, yes it most likely won’t be like this come the day, but the way things are going models wise I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re talking about the February of 2021 for years to come. Sweet dreams

 Indeed I think that the models are showing cannot be discounted totally over the last few years we have had two extremes February 2018 beast from the east following year we had 20 1C in February. This may come off it may not if it did however I would think this country will not be able to cope personally I would love a winter of extremes. I also think that the 3SSW we had this winter has helped things along any further warming are we expecting in the Strat guys?

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