Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, spayne said:

it’ll all end in tears, ramping up a chart 15 days away, will no one learn..!!!!

No one’s ramping it mate . It’s just unbelievable to see . Don’t see them runs too often

-16 to -17 uppers is incredible 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The size of the cold pool in most of the ensembles is incredible . Jaw dropping! 

One of the ensembles also has a 1070 Scandi high !

There was a run the other day with a 1070, well I was going to say North of the pole!! But I realise that’s nonsense, I mean on the other side, just.  1070 in Scandi is just ridiculous though, it can easily happen in Greenland because of the elevated surface.  

24 hours in model watching!!!!!!  Just last night we were ruminating on a warm up end of next week, didn’t look likely to happen, and then todays models with the 18z the icing on the British Isles.  

[nick sussex]

Funny thing is that wall of purple heralding the arrival of that brutal cold  to some might be foreboding!

But in here it’s manna from heaven ! We love that wall ! 

Edited February 6, 2021 by nick sussex

[Don]

2 minutes ago, spayne said:

it’ll all end in tears, ramping up a chart 15 days away, will no one learn..!!!!

I don't think anyone expects this to actually come off, merely just amazing viewing at the moment.  

[Battleground Snow]

Mean diving again at day 9 after not even recovering to 0 and a big cold cluster.

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Mythic Cold]

How would those charts compare historically? 

[Allseasons-Si]

12 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Someone pass the brandy.

Hold on mate,...i am sending out the cavalry 

Great charts tonight and the gefs mean is further north with the Scandi high than the 12z...

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, spayne said:

it’ll all end in tears, ramping up a chart 15 days away, will no one learn..!!!!

Well it’s a perfectly plausible pattern to emerge from the current set up and it’s being well advertised across model output. 

Anything else on top of this cold spell is a bonus! 

[Cloud 10]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

No one’s ramping it mate . It’s just unbelievable to see . Don’t see them runs too often

-16 to -17 uppers is incredible 

 

Maybe time to update your avatar.

[andy989]

Never seen purples so close/touching the UK. Crazy run...BUT, 16 days away

[Steady Easterly]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The whole country well below 510 dam ....not sure that’s possible !

Its certainly possible, but is it probable?  would be an epic event.

[Man With Beard]

EURO4 sees most of the UK white by Monday night. Not sure how worthwhile this model is these days, but will be interesting to check

 

[SLEETY]

Busy in SE thread but holy cow,if this verifies 1947 cet of minus 1.9c in real danger and its not in fl that cold starts its from today,insane

 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean diving again at day 9 and not even recovering to 0 and a big cold cluster.

 

Although not an outlier, as expected the op is at the colder end of the ensembles.

[weathercold]

Enjoy these charts, frame them, drool over them, for us cold weather lovers, it really doesn’t get any better. Is it just me or does it feel that every new run seems to take these cold projections to the next level!

IF these charts come to fruition, this month will enter the history books with some of those great winters. A genuine WTF moment tonight. Just extraordinary.

[radiohead]

2 minutes ago, Mythic Cold said:

How would those charts compare historically? 

I don't think the UK would have seen uppers that cold since 1991? Not 100% sure though.

 

[Had Worse]

Just waiting for the knockout blow to land when someone reports that GFS was a mild outlier. 

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Maybe time to update your avatar.

Lol I’ll change it when it hits

[Don]

Just now, radiohead said:

I don't think the UK would have seen uppers that cold since 1991? Not 100% sure though.

 

Probably more January 1987 I would have thought?

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Retrogression to Greenland discussed monday as well in regionals potentially tied to mjo phase 8?

Yes Scott then phase 8/1 for complete retrogression for a northerly afterwards,all roads lead to cold at the moment,lets see if w can get the second bite of the cherry from 192 the a third one later on,seems plausable but don't take my word for it lol

BTW,i hope that your mother is doing OK mate

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Man Without Beard said:

EURO4 sees most of the UK white by Monday night. Not sure how worthwhile this model is these days, but will be interesting to check

 

Looking at the EURO4 recently, it seems to do convection better than most of the other models, you can see it in the charts you posted, so I’d rate it.  

HARMONIE another one that does, here’s 18z take from that one:

 

[bluearmy]

Gefs is a big step towards a cut off scandi upper ridge ....

actually, it’s more than a step ....

it has a mean cut off  scandi upper  ridge by day 9/10!

[radiohead]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Probably more January 1987 I would have thought?

-18 uppers in the SE in 1991 May have even reached -19 on the coast.

[Matt H]

The day 10 mean is seriously impressive.

[Updated_Weather]

12 minutes ago, spayne said:

it’ll all end in tears, ramping up a chart 15 days away, will no one learn..!!!!

Can people not enjoy a model run? People know it’s unlikely to be this extreme.