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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
1 minute ago, Malarky said:

Dead in here! Thoughts on the pub?

I'm just watching as the charts come out, ~ not long until Thursdays and Fridays ,. I'm sure the chat will liven up very soon

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
4 minutes ago, Malarky said:

Dead in here! Thoughts on the pub?

Forgot what they are like, haven't been to one in months!

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

Yeah the SE and EA thread is going off big time and it's not even started yet! 

Like many I'm more concerned about the next 48 hours, but am keeping half an eye on mid term prospects. 

Hoping for a good pub run on top of radar watching!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

 Cold is definitely further west at 120 compared to 126 on the 12z

 

IMG_1948.PNG

IMG_1949.PNG

Aye, not so keen on this one, would rather frontal snow/Atlantic battle, than cold and dry, 18Z poor really, as 12Z had good snow for many areas

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, not so keen on this one, would rather frontal snow/Atlantic battle, than cold and dry, 18Z poor really, as 12Z had good snow for many areas

That's probably the cost of doing business to keep the Scandi high in play later? ?‍♂️ 

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, not so keen on this one, would rather frontal snow/Atlantic battle, than cold and dry, 18Z poor really, as 12Z had good snow for many areas

It will probably just mean a delay ala GEM.

1050mb scandi high on this run...

F191399E-F768-42FF-887E-2CBC68B809E8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
10 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The cold is coming on fast now and has considerable depth with a rapid fall expected overnight in 850 mb temps. Looks to me like an extreme winter event for southeast England tomorrow. 20-40 cm snow potential, blowing snow in exposed areas. Similar if localized results later through the Midlands and Yorkshire. The North Sea is not particularly warm (widely reporting 6-7 C SST) so the modification of the cold surface flow will not be overly significant in terms of spoiling the snow potential through mixing; that milder sector between two advancing prongs of cold may see some mixing issues at first until it fills in. 

BOOM !!!

I still see similar totals as you for both the midlands and south east too Roger.

Think theres been some conservatism to the set up but if anything for me massive totals have begun to look more likely

I note Steve Murr is on an even bigger scale of 50cm south East!

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