Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

Recommended Posts

  • Popular Post
mbrothers Aficionado

mbrothers

Posted
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
  • Popular Post
Posted
4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well I was daft enough to finally get a little excited this morning and the 12Z's seem to have removed any glimmer of hope of snow. Its really a big downgrade for those west the of IOW. ICON, Arpege really backed of the snow risk on Tuesday evening, GFS not really interested and ECM seems to be much further south!!

If you can tell for certain today that no snow will fall on Tuesday night then u should be working at the met 

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted
3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well I was daft enough to finally get a little excited this morning and the 12Z's seem to have removed any glimmer of hope of snow. Its really a big downgrade for those west the of IOW. ICON, Arpege really backed of the snow risk on Tuesday evening, GFS not really interested and ECM seems to be much further south!!

The cold spell is getting prolonged, this will increase your chances for repeated Atlantic attacks to stall above you.

  • Like 23
Link to comment
Share on other sites
daz_4 Community Regular

daz_4

Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Spare a thought for those in Slovakia etc..

ec 00z 

image.thumb.png.1f640dd9c60a59165e8a0bc782bc75de.png

ec12z

image.thumb.png.d290760cde13634ca8147ea2c86c27d9.png

Winter to spring just like that!!

I'm cringing looking at that. This was ECM in the morning for my city. This one probably won't be different.

image.thumb.png.b0ea621d1715c9d6b79ee6e9ec3869aa.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, daz_4 said:

I'm cringing looking at that. This was ECM in the morning for my city. This one probably won't be different.

image.thumb.png.b0ea621d1715c9d6b79ee6e9ec3869aa.png

Fingers crossed for you Daz.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, mbrothers said:

If you can tell for certain today that no snow will fall on Tuesday night then u should be working at the met 

Some people just continue to take charts at face value. It’s very frustrating. Doesn’t matter how many times they’re told how badly models underestimate showers. There will be a lot of surprised people next week!

  • Like 13
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BurwellWeatherWatch Enthusiast

BurwellWeatherWatch

Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
Posted

so it looks like pretty much cross model agreement, albeit with slightly different routes, towards an extension of the cold. These things can easily switch suddenly but quite a turnaround from yesterday. Seems a strong probability rather than a vague likelihood now. Someone should let the BBC week ahead forecast know!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Matthew Gill Contributor

Matthew Gill

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton
  • Location: Nuneaton
Posted
Just now, MattStoke said:

Some people just continue to take charts at face value. It’s very frustrating. Doesn’t matter how many times they’re told how badly models underestimate showers. There will be a lot of surprised people next week!

Yep, showers and streamers come out of nowhere with little warning sometimes 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM 144 hrs.

ECM 168= whoosh!

 

ECM1-144.thumb.GIF.6a41d03fc0380f3b562d348444d27955.GIF

?????

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Friday will be absolutely baltic !!

Yep,Atlantic LP says sod this for a lark!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
13 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Isles of Scilly under the -9 line at 96hrs

Screenshot_20210206-182101_Meteociel.jpg

Their tropical plants ain't gonna like that!  

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bansobaby Newbie

Bansobaby

Posted
  • Location: South Warwickshire
  • Location: South Warwickshire
Posted
7 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s a nice thought..some of the snow that has fallen or falls in the next few days could still be there is 10 days time ! Not often you can say that in most parts of the UK! 

02D514C3-E14C-43BF-8E64-C584B7F7AF21.png

I really hope so, otherwise some folks will be under water....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its cold?

Yes but I was asking what the whoooooossssshhhh was all about lol

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted
1 minute ago, Bansobaby said:

I really hope so, otherwise some folks will be under water....

What?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

Something is afoot 

ECH1-168 (1).gif

ECH0-168 (1).gif

Following GEM.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Something milder just into the south west & Ireland by next weekend ...

61D68A2E-18F5-4A54-831E-74CECD4EDD45.gif

C4E5507C-0601-456D-B977-45307AE41A75.gif

Now that’s what you call an east west split. couple of shoves left?  Great trends today.  

68A97BF5-2292-425B-BE15-A77178AA02AD.png

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

ECM similar to the GEM with very cold air hanging on across the east.

image.thumb.gif.43651fdabea464487aa227431e06c087.gif
 

Again maybe still a few coastal flurries in the east/south east. It others sunny and frosty.

Ironically after the short range uncertainty of previous days. The pattern at day 6/7 probably carries pretty good confidence. Just a question of whether this can evolve further.
 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Latest Weather News

    European State of the Climate 2023 - Widespread flooding and severe heatwaves

    The annual ESOTC is a key evidence report about European climate and past weather. High temperatures, heatwaves, wildfires, torrential rain and flooding, data and insight from 2023, Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Chilly with an increasing risk of frost

    Once Monday's band of rain fades, the next few days will be drier. However, it will feel cool, even cold, in the breeze or under gloomy skies, with an increasing risk of frost. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Dubai Floods: Another Warning Sign for Desert Regions?

    The flooding in the Middle East desert city of Dubai earlier in the week followed record-breaking rainfall. It doesn't rain very often here like other desert areas, but like the deadly floods in Libya last year showed, these rain events are likely becoming more extreme due to global warming. View the full blog here

    Nick F
    Nick F | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather 2
×
×
  • Create New...