Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS gets the warm front across to the east (stalling along the A1 roughly), before dying out.

The GEM doesn’t get further than SW England and South Wales. In fact there are still scattered snow showers in east by next weekend.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

If ecm follows the gfs then i dont know what to say anymore!!!good luck to everyone in regards to the snow for the next 4 or 5 days!!

[Cold Winter Night]

Phenomenal output from a coldies' perspective.

Are we watching a Classic unfold?

Always at day 10. But as I am writing this, the snow and frost is already entering the East of the Netherlands and there will be no mild between now and day 10.

Everyone please appreciate how incredibly rare it is what we are watching right now.

[Djdazzle]

Normally as a cold spell starts, there’s nobody in the mod thread! Crazy 12z output so far prolonging, and actually strengthening, the cold.

[ancientsolar]

Don't think I have ever seen so much blue coldness over the south, let lone violet. which is normally reserved for the highlands

[Frosty.]

Wow, I’ve just deduced, now there’s a word I’ve never used on netweather..or for that matter..anywhere before?..anyhoo..it might be cold on my birthday, 22nd Feb according too the GEFS 6z..anyway..enough of that tosh..Shirley you only want to hear about the severe wintry spell for the SE?..well, it sure looks severe..and I’m happy for you guys..really I am..enjoy! ...oh yeah, this is only round one..I’ve noticed the models toying with a Scandi high and more severe cold possibilities?..anyway..first things first..enjoy your snaw!..

ps..you guys deserve a medal..I can’t keep up, you’re so dedicated..I thought I was but nothing compared to you guys..hats off!..respect!

Edited February 6, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Matt H]

12 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

This post was removed

Within a day the GFS has shifted from a quick breakdown of the cold spell to potentially unleashing an even colder easterly wind (as have the other models). No overhyping at all, things could become very interesting later on in February.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Blessed Weather

[Stabilo19]

Incredible GFS output lately. Most of the country below freezing from tomorrow until the end of the run. Very good setup with a freezing cold continent.

Big ramp but February 2021 could go down in the history books for cold. Just need to work on the snowfalls! 

[Griff]

Gem is colder, and more amplified... 186

[Southern Storm]

14 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

This post was removed

It's the trend that matters!

There will be a few surprises for some locations over the coming days, if we get round 2 then you would expect snow to appear closer to T0

Edited February 6, 2021 by Blessed Weather

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Griff said:

Gem is colder, and more amplified... 186

Wait till you see it's day 10 chart..

It's almost unbelievable, but I think somehow it's possible

[EML Network]

6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Phenomenal output from a coldies' perspective.

Are we watching a Classic unfold?

Always at day 10. But as I am writing this, the snow and frost is already entering the East of the Netherlands and there will be no mild between now and day 10.

Everyone please appreciate how incredibly rare it is what we are watching right now.

And if this verifys look at the atlantic, there's absolutely nothing coming our way from there, that's cold locked in for a long while. 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Wait till you see it's day 10 chart..

It's almost unbelievable, but I think somehow it's possible

Is it turning towards purple?  

[damianslaw]

Not focused too much on the models in recent days as the medium term output had cemented i.e. a cold easterly airflow as it about to happen now.

I was expecting the models to run away with the atlantic somewhat with heights to far to the east to hold it at bay, alas all now show a strengthening of the heights up to 1050mb which would easily fend off the atlantic. 

A possible classic cold spell in the offing, I say possible not definite, low pressure sliding under the heights eventually. A frontal system could become trapped through the spine of the UK later in the week to give more pronounced general snowfall before fizzling out.

Other than the late very cold spell end Feb 18 which came rather to late for my liking its been an age since we had a protracted freezing period of upwards of a week in February.

[Griff]

Nothing to see here

[Frigid]

Wow. Just wow. This winter has certainly been an exciting time for model watching, and as when you thought it wouldn't get better, it has. Stonking charts on the 12Z GFS, straight after a cold period of weather!! These developments are very encouraging as the models are following this trend of a mega scandi high. Looking at this, my CET prediction of 2.5 for February might be too high 

   

[JBMWeatherForever]

As Paul Gambochini would say it's now back to the 80's, and with some classics about to be played. Thames Streamers, Battleground Snow, and eventually significant blizzards !  Both Frankie and the man from Del Monte says yes !!!

[StingJet]

25 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

A fantastic GFS 12z run this afternoon out to t216, it looks increasingly likely that this cold spell isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. This has to be one of the most exciting periods of model watching that I have ever taken part in!

 

If only the face of the "beast (from the east)" , as depicted on the +216 would raise its "lower jaw" the uk would be in the line of fire for some exceptionally low 850's

[Tattooed Fox]

29 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

OMG where is everyone? 

They are watching the rugby

[EML Network]

now that's what you call East Meets West and on this run (Control) East is winning, absolutely the best period of model watching i've ever seen in 12 years of model watching.

[fujita5]

What interests me about the potential 2nd wave of cold, is that it covers more of continental Europe. That will make it increasingly difficult for Atlantic systems to make inroads, and when they do they only have frigid air to pull in ahead of their warm fronts. 

[ICE COLD]

Gem 12z

[Matt H]

Solid GEFS 12z ensemble mean out to t168. Some of the individual runs are going to be fantastic.

[Matthew Gill]

16 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Incredible GFS output lately. Most of the country below freezing from tomorrow until the end of the run. Very good setup with a freezing cold continent.

Big ramp but February 2021 could go down in the history books for cold. Just need to work on the snowfalls! 

Snow would most likely come from streamers I suspect, very difficult to pin point at ling range 

[Frigid]

I'm still cautious cause the models can shift very fast, we've seen it many times so far this winter. But if that came off we may be looking at a Feb 1986 style month!!

Could envisage that high over the UK providing some harsh frosts given the cold airmass we've been in.