Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[ICE COLD]

Think it’s gonna become a cut of scandi high

[ICE COLD]

OMG where is everyone? 

[Howie]

This could actually be quite severe by the looks of it

[Griff]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

OMG where is everyone? 

Looking out their windows already?  

 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

OMG where is everyone? 

I think everyone's on the regional threads, this is looking serious 

[ICE COLD]

It’s gonna be a stonker from here I think ? 

Edited February 6, 2021 by ICE COLD

[sukayuonsensnow]

Hmm where's that blue sector over Belarus/W Russia headed?

It's already -10c in the Netherlands under the orange.........

Speculative of course, but interesting to watch this.......

[Matt H]

A fantastic GFS 12z run this afternoon out to t216, it looks increasingly likely that this cold spell isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. This has to be one of the most exciting periods of model watching that I have ever taken part in!

 

[Duncan McAlister]

Ding ding, Round 2 

[Captain Shortwave]

The ridge development is slightly more SSW/NNE than the 06z, but extra amplification upstream means a more sustained Atlantic trough. In this case it looks like victory for the easterly by day 9 and the jet stream gets underneath that high.

 

Increasing confidence in an absolute whopper of a high developing near or north east of the U.K. A couple of days ago it was looks unsettled at this timeframe and before.

It could be better as this won’t deliver the beast, but again it is a step and we now have a genuinely cold continental flow.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Snowman.]

I can hear the roar.

 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Looking out their windows already?  

 

And very impatiently waiting for the streetlights to come on?

[Man With Beard]

So GFS so far has:

- As you were for snow chances until Wednesday

- Return to the greater snow threat through the spine of the country Thursday/Friday

- A remarkably cold few days at the end of the week and into the weekend (check it antifreeze and pipes!!)

- No realistic end to the freeze 

Apart from that, nothing much of note

 

 

[craigore]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

OMG where is everyone? 

Here.

Quietly watching..

Pinching myself at the thought of this being extended into week 2...

Be a very cold continental feed given that paternal.. 

[Singularity]

Well, the orientation improved again! 

I think it speaks volumes that a slightly worse day 6 position has been overcome by day 8.

Sure, it still sends the cold further south than it could have but it's less so than on the 06z. Some recovery!

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Man Without Beard said:

So GFS so far has:

- As you were for snow chances until Wednesday

- Return to the greater snow threat through the spine of the country Thursday/Friday

- A remarkably cold few days at the end of the week and into the weekend (check it antifreeze and pipes!!)

- No realistic end to the freeze 

Apart from that, nothing much of note

 

 

You forgot the whopping great 1050 scandi high at day 9

[LetItSnow!]

Surely under that Scandinavian ridge with very cold uppers & already imbedded cold & snow at the surface we would be talking -2/3/4/5> maximums and some exceptionally cold nights. Would it be conducive to -20> minima in places. I’m just thinking that if it occurred in Dec. 1981/Jan. 1982 it would be possible this month under the right circumstances.

[Sawel]

GEM also excellent at +168

[Battleground Snow]

I'm here @ICE COLD 

I'm watching the gem more closely than the gfs, think it will be even better 

here it is at 162

Edited February 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[ICE COLD]

What a Beauty at day ten , work to be done on the uppers

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Wow, GEM the cold doesn’t clear the UK at all....bitterly cold in east, West still under surface cold with deep cold ready to surge back

 BFTP

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm here @ICE COLD 

I'm watching the gem more closely than the gfs, think it will be even better 

here it is at 

Wow that is cracking mate . Get in there

[Malcolm Edwards]

So it looks like the major SSW, mjo and la nina is now paying dividends. I'm in disbelief. 

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Looks as though it could get seriously cold in FI not far away from that extreme cold in central europe

[Sawel]

GEM +192

Stunning!