Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Battleground Snow]

Wow, it only took GFS one suite to catch up! Wasn't expecting that.

This has to be the best period of model watching in the 15 years I've been doing it.

[Malarky]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The 6z for 180 compared to the 0z for the same time

  

The 0c 850 line has moved from the east of Holland to the south west of the UK - that's significant!

With the way this is trending I can only see us being under very cold uppers when this date comes around. 

[bluearmy]

1060 Mb high over scandi ?  If it wasn’t for everything that wasn’t possible happening over the past twelve months I’d say that was impossible ! 

[DOdo]

There will be some wind chill at 198 those isobars are being squeezed

[GSP]

I think going into the next weekend the air will get drier, but colder with pipe bursting temps the major problem. This spell is going to reap misery for thousands.

[Uncertainty]

Incredible cold over mainland Europe, any retrogression of that monster high and that’s getting advected right into the U.K. 

I bet there’s plenty of ens which will, even if this run doesn’t...

We await the wording of the MO long range outlook with interest...

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, DOdo said:

There will be some wind chill at 198 those isobars are being squeezed

You're not wrong 

[Tim Bland]

Wow cold spell never ended in the east. Must admit I was wrong yesterday, I thought this was nigh on impossible  

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Starting to remind me a bit of early Jan 2002, max temps for this Sat!

I was just about to post that, so much for the warm up. The apps show 6c by next weekend, I expect a flip

[Howie]

4 minutes ago, Notty said:

... and below freezing during the day next Sunday !

This shows the WAA nicely

[Dazza9525]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Wow, it only took GFS one suite to catch up! Wasn't expecting that.

This has to be the best period of model watching in the 15 years I've been doing it.

Absolutely agree! This is all incredibly addictive. Think I might have a problem! Is there such a thing as snow chasers anonymous (SCA)?

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

You're not wrong 

Unbelievable !

[Methuselah]

Yes, today's GFS looks good; having said that, it did make an utterly gooly of today's LP?

    

[bluearmy]

that upper high should be pretty stable given the WAA to the west and a v cold trough below 

gfs has created it so let’s see how it deals with it in fi 
 

Edited February 6, 2021 by bluearmy

[bradymk]

Good example of cold remaining at the surface as the scandi high is building on GFS. Milder upper air creeps into the UK, with the 0c 850 past the SW and almost all of Wales.

However the surface temps for same time. 13:00 Saturday.

-3/-4c central England. Still freezing at surface in Wales and parts of south west. This would be great for people with snow cover, could hang around for a long time if the transition happens as per this run.

And then the cold upper air filters back in from the east.  

Good to see the trend towards ECM and GEM.

[Continental Climate]

1 minute ago, Notty said:

Unbelievable !

That won't happen, it can't happen!!!

[That ECM]

There’s a trend.

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

that upper high should be pretty stable given the WAA to the west and surface cold trough below 

gfs has created it so let’s see how it deals with it in fi 
 

FI predictably starts to sink it. 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Dazza9525 said:

Absolutely agree! This is all incredibly addictive. Think I might have a problem! Is there such a thing as snow chasers anonymous (SCA)?

I need to get more than 5 hours sleep per night soon, I can't keep taking a nap in my work lunch hour! But its too addictive atm

[GSP]

The Beast from the East 3 years ago was all well and good. But this spell is going to catch a lot of people out.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Comment removed

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Good signals of strong HIGH ridging over Scandinavia, the Atlantic jet may well be forced south.

[Lukesluckybunch]

If this is a new trend we could be looking at easily a 10 day very cold period.more runs needed to be sure

[Weather-history]

This will suck the moisture out of anything, look at those dew points 

[Sky Full]

GFS 0Z -v- GFS 6z for 07:00 16th February......   ( +240h)

                                    500s                                                         850s

0Z        
 

6Z        

Quite an abrupt U turn for two adjacent runs even if it is still 10 days away.  Don’t be fooled into thinking that the later run is more likely to happen than the earlier one though....

Edited February 6, 2021 by Sky Full

[Tim Bland]

Here’s a nice thought..some of the snow that has fallen or falls in the next few days could still be there is 10 days time ! Not often you can say that in most parts of the UK!