Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Daniel*]

I had a scan through ECM temps if that turned out correct I know in SE it would be coldest spell of weather in 30 years.

[Panayiotis]

Caution must be applied with this new evolution however, the building blocks come between 120hrs and 144hrs and the UKMO looks different to the GEM and ECM at that timeframe. If it’s one model you want on board, its the UKMO, so important runs to follow regarding that model.

Note: As stated in other posts by some on here, the GFS is the worst model when disrupting energy (in the correct way). If it’s by itself compared to the other models then it’s best to discard it. Get worried when the ECM and UKMO move towards it - very unlikely however! 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Panayiotis

[Captain Shortwave]

Just to show, ECM day 7 yesterday 

 

Day 6 today

Pretty big changes with the Atlantic fronts being held further at bay, along with a more defined area of high pressure over Norway. Not only that but we are beginning to see more defined cold air advection around the southern flank of that high.
The question is not only can we improve matters later on with severe cold air going into many parts of Europe, but is it possible in the 5-7 day range that the coldest 850s actually leave the U.K. at all.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[PiscesStar]

3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Just to show, ECM day 7 yesterday 

 

Day 6 today

Pretty big changes with the Atlantic fronts being held further at bay, along with a more defined area of high pressure over Norway. Not only that but we are beginning to see more defined cold air advection around the southern flank of that high.
The question is not only can we improve matters later on with severe cold air going into many parts of Europe, but is it possible in the 5-7 day range that the coldest 850s actually leave the U.K. at all.

I agree. I thibk the block will prove more resistant in subsequent runs 

[ICE COLD]

Quick one from me . Gem . Something is brewing only just scanned runs no time .

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Caution must be applied with this new evolution however, the building blocks come between 120hrs and 144hrs and the UKMO looks different to the GEM and ECM at that timeframe. If it’s one model you want on board, its the UKMO, so important runs to follow regarding that model.

Note: As stated in other posts by some on here, the GFS is the worst model when disrupting energy (in the correct way). If it’s by itself compared to the other models then it’s best to discard it. Get worried when the ECM and UKMO move towards it - very unlikely however! 

Indeed, there’s a possibility that Ukmo is better. The energy coming from the states is further back west with sw coming off it. Best let @nick sussex discuss shortwave details tho.

[Battleground Snow]

I'm willing to guess there will be a extremely cold cluster showing at 216-264 on the EPS, especially over De Bilt.

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I had a scan through ECM temps if that turned out correct I know in SE it would be coldest spell of weather in 30 years.

Not just the south east mate!!that looks a freezing run widely across the uk!!!ukmo has improved compared to yesterday!!gfs as well but not as good as 18z last night!!

[Jason M]

22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm willing to guess there will be a extremely cold cluster showing at 216-264 on the EPS, especially over De Bilt.

De Bilt probably won’t be that helpful here as I’d imagine they will be cold regardless of what happens in our back yard. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Jason M

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Not just the south east mate!!that looks a freezing run widely across the uk!!!ukmo has improved compared to yesterday!!gfs as well but not as good as 18z last night!!

The GFS op was nearer the top of the pack and the ensembles are showing the first signs of what the ECM and gem look like

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

One thing is for certain, it could get dangerously cold if we see a proper undercut from the E. This February has potential for a CET to be up there with some classics. 

[MattStoke]

Day time temperatures  for next Friday into the following Monday from that ECM op run.

Many would be looking at 9 consecutive ice days on that run.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Not just the south east mate!!that looks a freezing run widely across the uk!!!ukmo has improved compared to yesterday!!gfs as well but not as good as 18z last night!!

Yep in December 2010 it wasn’t crazy cold down here I know elsewhere in country it was so I wasn’t particularly sure 6 consecutive ice days in parts of SE on ECM 12z from this Sunday to next Saturday. That clearly would be historic.

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The GFS op was nearer the top of the pack and the ensembles are showing the first signs of what the ECM and gem look like

06z and 12z gona look frigid then!!ice days on ecm all the way into the following week!!

[Tim Bland]

ECM gets a 9/10 for cold but only a 4/10 for snow from me. It’s cold throughout but fior 90% of the population it’s very dry with just a dusting. Away from the south east and Scotland I would have thought snow fans would want some kinds of snowy breakdown? It’s high risk but high reward. At this stage in the season I’d gamble!  ECM is far better than cold rain and mud though in FI. If we can’t have snow I’d settle for cold, frosty and sunny  

[Guest]

Sorry if mentioned in previous posts, The Gem looks good for reload

[Djdazzle]

This is a first for me in 18 years of model watching: a cold spell starting as we speak, and we’re looking in the models for an even more severe one!

Something seems to be afoot here - ECM and GEM seem to be shutting the door to a breakdown step by step. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Djdazzle

[Tim Bland]

GEM really is the holy grail for cold and snow fans! It has everything and something for everyone !
 

Snow is the east tomorrow / Monday. Snow along the south coast / south west midweek. Then a push of snow from the west as far as the midlands and north west end of the week...Then we are back to an easterly with snow showers in from the east...

Phew Need a lie down after seeing that run!  Pray the other models follow that soon

[Duane S.]

This is starting to look like the real deal.

An evolving Scandi High was looking like more of a possibility in the past day or so, as more and more runs started holding back the monster low.

I was posting as much last night and clearly fell asleep mid type (the excitement must’ve just got too much! ).

Clearly an appetite for round#2 is staring us in the face now.

A ‘warm up’ from the end of next week now looks strong odds on but every chance there will be nothing ‘warm’ about it! Still far from set in stone yet, but a trend could emerging to remain cold with light winds and dry. That would do very nicely indeed should it happen, as we await another potential attack from the East!

A snowier version of February’86 anyone?

Edited February 6, 2021 by s4lancia

[bluearmy]

did someone order a smashed up tpv for feb ?   I believe a chap with initials SSW may have been involved ........

[philglossop]

The more runs showing that Scandi high, the more its a sensible evolution. Just a gentle reminder, that cold December 2010 had a milder spell mid month before the brutal set in. Could this be going the same way?

[Battleground Snow]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM gets a 9/10 for cold but only a 4/10 for snow from me. It’s cold throughout but fior 90% of the population it’s very dry with just a dusting. Away from the south east and Scotland I would have thought snow fans would want some kinds of snowy breakdown? It’s high risk but high reward. At this stage in the season I’d gamble!  ECM is far better than cold rain and mud though in FI. If we can’t have snow I’d settle for cold, frosty and sunny  

I'm saving this chart for 144 on Friday and will post the actual snow depths people attain to see how close it was 

There seems to be a fierce debate in here whether or not the models are  seeing the convection. I am in the camp that they are underplaying streamers, especially with -12 to -14 air moving over water, but we will see what happens

Edited February 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Liam J]

1 hour ago, Malarky said:

If this comes off. Wow. The potential!

Probably been posted a few times already, but here’s the 00z GEM & ECM at day 10 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm saving this chart for 144 on Friday and will post the actual snow depths people attain to see how close it was 

There seems to be a fierce debate in here whether or not the models are not seeing the convection. I am in the camp that they are underplaying streamers, especially with -12 to -14 air moving over water, but we will see what happens

Tuesday/Wednesday for the sw may hold interest also going by that.

[Ice Day]

Amazing overnight runs.  The extension of this cold spell is now looking the likely option (IMO) as the models have been trending this way now for several days.  Each run pushes the milder air further west so I suspect it won't even get here.   The day 9 (not 10) ECM would need very little adjustment to get the frigid air back over us.

Bonkers to think that there is the potential for days 9 onwards to be equally, if not colder, than the next few days.  For many around the country (especially the eastern side), we may not see temperatures above freezing for a week.... or more?  If the 12z's keep trending the same way this cold spell cold be entering the 'classic' category for many areas.

Anyway, that's my little ramp for the morning.  Have a great day and hopefully this thread will be getting quieter over the next day or so as we all flee to the regionals for our snow fix.  Fingers and everything crossed for you all.