Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Daniel*]

Wow what a tease second wave of very cold easterly winds lurking to east. 

[mulzy]

Atlantic making no progress at day 6 on the ECM - similar to the GEM though not quite as good in my opinion.

[Captain Shortwave]

At just day 6 from the ECM

This could quickly escalate from here. Bitter in the east...

 

Severe frosts with light south easterly winds providing clearer skies.

[Stu_London]

ECM and GEM partying like its 1986

[Daniel*]

The funny thing we could end up with coldest weather late in week no one would have expected that. Previous outputs from GFS turned it milder by Wednesday it’s been awful as the GEFS.

[Battleground Snow]

Can we !?

ECM v gem

Edited February 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The funny thing we could end up with coldest weather late in week no one would have expected that. Previous outputs from GFS turned it milder by Wednesday it’s been awful as the GEFS.

Hang on, only a few days ago if the ECM was to be believed it would not have even started, never mind broke down.

[Daniel*]

I’d actually call what ECM is showing a severe cold spell while by Thursday the snow potential dies away it remains very cold as winds slacken from pressure rise trapping cold, there are bound to be extremely cold nights over snow fields.

[Daniel*]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Hang on, only a few days ago if the ECM was to be believed it would not have even started, never mind broke down.

That wasn't just a few days ago I think that’s approaching a week ago, and EPS was steadfast. The GFS and GEFS had a major wobble. 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’d actually call what ECM is showing a severe cold spell while by Thursday the snow potential dies away it remains very cold as winds slacken from pressure rise trapping cold, there are bound to be extremely cold nights over snow fields.

At 150, there are still -14 pockets over Leeds and Norwich, quite incredible how the Atlantic has been held back so much

Edited February 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, festivalking said:

Spring in the South East by next Sunday on this run

Matches the CFS with a warm up later in Feb- +8c uppers up to Aberdeen after a week of cold and snow id take that  

Edited February 6, 2021 by Kentspur

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

That wasn't just a few days ago I think that’s approaching a week ago, and EPS was steadfast. The GFS and GEFS had a major wobble. 

the GEFS picked it out before the EPS, EPS 2m temps were not indicative of double digit negative uppers.

[Daniel*]

Look how much more amplified to north it’s not enough here but if that trend continued well!

[Griff]

I'm saying trend... 

[Battleground Snow]

Wow 216,

Maybe not quite the gem, but still awesome. Still bitterly cold, especially in the east.

Every hour that the Atlantic gets held back, the more chance we have of getting the WAA up near or through the UK

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Weather-history]

What a contrast from this time last year with storm Ciara

[Panayiotis]

At 216hrs we have an emerging trend, quite surprised both GEM and ECM showing something similar, with northern Scandi heights and the flow returning from the continent. If we get that undercut then it’s Beast from the East 2.0 ((from 2018), the forecast one next week is technically not one ) 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Panayiotis

[Ali1977]

In this run 850s and precip aren’t impressive, but I imagine daytime temps are close to freezing and nighttime temps are severe. 

[Ali1977]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

In this run 850s and precip aren’t impressive, but I imagine daytime temps are close to freezing and nighttime temps are severe. 

NH looking primed for re-attack. Hoping for a 06Z GFS follow on!! 

[Ali1977]

Look at those temps in Europe, crazy potential if we can tap into those - which looks very probable in this run!!

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

In this run 850s and precip aren’t impressive, but I imagine daytime temps are close to freezing and nighttime temps are severe. 

Ice days everywhere away from southern coasts and far west

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

NH looking primed for re-attack. Hoping for a 06Z GFS follow on!! 

Don’t bet on it. The GFS handles these setups so poorly. It will probably continue to try to bring in Atlantic frontal systems and milder air but continue to shunt that further west run by run before eventually catching up to the other models. Yet some still insist on calling a definite end date to any cold spell based on the GFS and its ensembles instead of using experience and considering how other models are handling it

Edited February 6, 2021 by MattStoke

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Look at those temps in Europe, crazy potential if we can tap into those - which looks very probable in this run!!

The way everything has adjusted west in just 12 hours, you can imagine further adjustments on then 12z runs

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

NH looking primed for re-attack. Hoping for a 06Z GFS follow on!! 

If ecm and gem are leading the way then gfs will need a few runs I would think. going to be interesting again. Fascinating year for watching output that’s for sure.

According to ecm people will still be playing in the snow on the 16th.
 

Being sensible for a minute, which is unusual for me, a slow thaw of snow when it comes would be beneficial. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by That ECM

[Griff]

Oh dear, and I was laughing at the CFS