Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Griff]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is say they are leaning towards a cold end to feb.. No sign of an outlier out to Friday

So the mean is no longer trending steeply upwards on the 18z around Wednesday / Thursday... Deserves a chin rub  

[Alexis]

Some records would be broken in Italy if that run came true I would have thought.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Does anyone think there is potential now for an attempted breakdown bringing in some snow that hangs around and we get a reinforcing of cold from the east?

Yes

 

BFTP

[tight isobar]

G,wan the offy run .. the possibilities are endless.. and I’ll be scrutinise.. the supporting @gefs-500s etc.. the inflow is badgering the outs on a marvellous level... this is a coldie fan going to heaven.. and St. Peter draging them thro the gates.. of indulging!!.  Honestly this will I’m sure gain once again.. if not blip then fold..Scandinavia looks very optional as we forwards march!!!@nice aye

[Purga]

Great stuff, the High is pulling N again.

 What will the 0z's bring ???

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi all,hope you are all well and good

just joined the cozy thread to see what's up...

and i smell a Scandi high starting to show traction after next weekend on the models with the Atlantic not getting past the meridian(uk)

i have just got to say a big WOW at these latest gefs ens...

a flat line of -10 or just a smidgen below that until the 11th Feb(Thu),...but can we squeeze more out of this?

this is very exiting and has ticked down nicely to an actual cold spell with the upgrades in the uppers as we get closer

have a good weekend everyone and i hope that we all get a good snowy spell out of this

i have all the things prepared for this cold spell

good luck everyone

[sheikhy]

Ensembles for the midlands flatline to -10 pretty much from sunday all the way to next friday!!!

[radiohead]

Big changes afoot on the 18Z GEFS. Strong signal for a ridge to develop and deep cold to pool into central Europe.

Could we see something like this on the 0Z in the morning....

[GSP]

Took me back a bit when Darren Bett said the word blizzards near the SE and EA coast on Sunday.

[Geordiesnow]

Looking forward viewing the output how the models handle this potential breakdown, it's the classic case of charts being more snowy than meets the eye. Hopefully there be plenty in f variation and we can stay in the cold air(even if its dry), just far too early for spring like weather! 

[tight isobar]

It’s an emotional time for a cold preference fan right now .  @love it..

Edited February 5, 2021 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T192:

I’m posting this not because i think it will happen, actually I don't think it will happen.  I think something like the blocking into scandi will happen earlier, and scupper the mild spell completely.  I think the models on Sunday maybe, will disrupt that T144 bowling ball low and it will slide.  We will see...

[Snowman.]

Slightly too far south still but 1035 mean heights.

[Chasbrown]

2 minutes ago, GSP said:

Took me back a bit when Darren Bett said the word blizzards near the SE and EA coast on Sunday.

Bet that hurt him? 

[Allseasons-Si]

ERM!!!

@De-built...

temps/dew points

^ that's pretty cold right out to the 15th/16th and it wouldn't' take much to cross the thin slither of the north sea westwards from there.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Purga]

The 2M temps for London say a lot!

[Nath]

Lets hope the scandi high can build next weekend.   This is a one in 10 year chance, possibly 1 in 20 years during the coldest part of winter!!

[geordiekev]

20 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Expect some more eye candy from the GEFS 18z as it tries to work out the HP's destination.

Please tell me there's an Atlantic omega block, as things defo look to be falling into place for blocking somewhere.

Small adjustments make massive differences and as Nick says we need the Canadian PV to disrupt and a strong low to our East will help to throw further heights up & help reverse the W/E movement.

So many good options though & whilst plenty of cold about.

If only

[chionomaniac]

Hmmm. Just seen the 18Z GFS. Now we see what we suggested that could happen earlier regarding a possible Scandi Block. With the Atlantic delayed slightly, and a double wave of Atlantic amplification in the offing, then strong possibilities remain with round 2. A few more nudges and we are there. 

I dont know what the GEFS will say, but there is a reason that they are not to be trusted.  I have seen so many flips over the years lol. Perhaps we should rename them as the lemmings ensembles.  They are all quite happy to throw themselves over a cliff when it is obvious that this is a bad move!

[Allseasons-Si]

Some work to get through but the control run...

18z 216 v's 12Z 228

you can see that curve backing SW through S Scandi as aposed to the 12z N-S.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Hmmm. Just seen the 18Z GFS. Now we see what we suggested that could happen earlier regarding a possible Scandi Block. With the Atlantic delayed slightly, and a double wave of Atlantic amplification in the offing, then strong possibilities remain with round 2. A few more nudges and we are there. 

I dont know what the GEFS will say, but there is a reason that they are not to be trusted.  I have seen so many flips over the years lol. Perhaps we should rename them as the lemmings ensembles.  They are all quite happy to throw themselves over a cliff when it is obvious that this is a bad move!

We’ll see the 12z eps-gefs 12z tmoz for scope!!? .. but gut feeling is inclement!.. @lets get a never ending on this.. via minor blips...

[ICE COLD]

Well I missed the gfs 18z run . Another upgrade run . Still well below freezing next Sunday and still brass monkeys at night time . Nice cover of snow for most too . 

Edited February 5, 2021 by ICE COLD

[chionomaniac]

I think I saw a comment earlier, about commenting on the models and sticking to what they show in this thread. But the fun for me is viewing all the outputs and then working out where the information they provide can be used in a constructive way to predict a slightly different outcome that is equally feasible with the help they provide. Hence when you see a ( double) amplification scenario that the models pick up on, it is logical to adjust this to suggest a different scenario that is reasonable but not showing yet.

Still a long way to go, but round two a strong likelihood imo

[Derecho]

10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Hmmm. Just seen the 18Z GFS. Now we see what we suggested that could happen earlier regarding a possible Scandi Block. With the Atlantic delayed slightly, and a double wave of Atlantic amplification in the offing, then strong possibilities remain with round 2. A few more nudges and we are there. 

I dont know what the GEFS will say, but there is a reason that they are not to be trusted.  I have seen so many flips over the years lol. Perhaps we should rename them as the lemmings ensembles.  They are all quite happy to throw themselves over a cliff when it is obvious that this is a bad move!

3 ensemble members already achieve this already by day 10. P2 achieves this perfectly:

 

Well if I were to be really picky, I'd prefer it all to be a tad further north but this is along the lines of what we want to see.

With the high building after the easterly. There is the potential for further very cold days. Even though milder uppers start coming in, the surface flow is still from a very cold continent, so there are further ice days on the GFS op into next weekend.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[Guest]

6 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone want to bet that this east Europe block is more west and north come nearer the time?

 

Good call chionomaniac. Hopefully a trend, good ol GFS...