Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Tim Bland]

Start praying it’s a new trend and not A cold outlier

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Ensembles will be interesting! And the 0Z runs....

Yes especially as GfS often throws to much energy ne in these patterns. 

[radiohead]

Look at that cold pool in Eastern Europe Wow.

[sheikhy]

Ice days all week and -2 widely across england during the day on saturday!!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s still going to be difficult to maintain the cold as the low is reluctant to disrupt a second time . It’s going to start pivoting in response to the upstream pattern so it might be a case of waiting to see if it can go much more vertical.

Hang on a minute, that low to the south of the main low about to pump some WAA Northwards at 186.

[CentralSouthernSnow]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Watch the trend next few GFS runs, front will be no where near that fr East! expect it to make it to Ireland

It will be more south 

[Hotspur62]

Hoping the GFS Is not an outlier after 144 but think it probably will be.

[Tim Bland]

Just need a scandi height rise to push that cold pool our way

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

If GfS is starting to disrupt against the cold block then there must be hope of further improvements. 

Yes, that’s my take on this evenings output too, Phil, I wouldn’t have put money on the GFS to lead with this as it is against it’s bias, so I think tomorrow’s runs will be very interesting.

[Captain Shortwave]

The pub run is but a few tweaks from freeing the beast on this run. Incredible levels of cold entering Central Europe. The development of that Scandinavian high is as dependent on events happening to our east as well as in the Atlantic.

The ridge needs to sheer away to create a cut off high to our north east.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ice days all week and -2 widely across england during the day on saturday!!

I know..  loomin heck..

[gman88667733]

5 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

 

This would be much better than I thought we would be getting currently

[MattStoke]

GFS as usual showing why people shouldn’t call a definite end to a cold spell on a definite date based on its output. Always the most progressive model with breaking down these patterns.

Yesterday it had milder conditions by Thursday. Now it struggles to do so on Friday and in fact gives a good snow event for many. Shame that probably won’t happen as it will likely continue to be pushed westward.

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Look at that cold pool in Eastern Europe Wow.

absolutely.. and coming straight at us.. despite the milder air.. and can't budge the surface temperatures (if it verifies ) 

[feb1991blizzard]

Now if that low heading up towards Greenland now gets absorbed by the PV, there will then be high lat block and then if anyone has noticed, the Jan 87 uppers redux and then some on top is just about to head West - how about the -20c barrier being smashed anyone?

[danthetan]

850hpa temperatures might be near 0c but look at the 2m temps feeding off the continent wow thats at 13.00

[radiohead]

At 210 the cold air is pushing back into the SE... Someone put on the Rocky theme music.

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that’s my take on this evenings output too, Phil, I wouldn’t have put money on the GFS to lead with this as it is against it’s bias, so I think tomorrow’s runs will be very interesting.

Yes Mike. It could be a case of modelling identifying stronger blocking as they get closer to the key point. 

[Tim Bland]

Next sun 12z Vs 18z 

[Notty]

Like I said earlier, the UKMO are very bullish on a very cold end to Feb. This is on topic because they are using their own models and are very measured in their language so something must be up ...

[Cloud 10]

GFS a great example of surface cold.  (and warm air advection aloft)

 

[nick sussex]

The cold pool to the east won’t get west at this point as the high is boxed in and can’t get further north . But the surface flow should be sufficient to keep things cold at ground level .

If you can get the Scandi high further north earlier that would be a big help .

[CentralSouthernSnow]

1 minute ago, Notty said:

Like I said earlier, the UKMO are very bullish on a very cold end to Feb. This is on topic because they are using their own models and are very measured in their language so something must be up ...

They really aren’t. They downgraded there outlook today 

[Thundery wintry showers]

The 12Z ECM today and now the GFS 18Z are picking up on a possibility that after the frontal attack on Thursday/Friday we might well move into a cold and dry regime, rather than a mild and wet one.   NOAA's 8-14 day outlook is also inching in that direction - a couple of days ago it had a low height anomaly right over Britain, but it's now out to the west:

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[johnholmes]

The latest NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 is now out.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

It suggests, on its 8-14 chart, to me, that some kind of upper ridge and probably a surface high close by beneath it in the Greenland area. The major upper trough is SW of the UK and any surface feature is probably going to be in the area at the bottom of the trough, not far, perhaps, from the fairly small -ve anomaly in heights. Just what the actual surface flow might be is not easy to decide. It is possible that they may position in such a way as to keep much of the country cold rather than mild!