Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[sheikhy]

Big snow event later in the week!!gfs has disrupted!!

[TEITS]

Whilst some are looking W at the low pressure for a possible snowy breakdown. Im looking in the other direction.

Could it be that no fronts will get anywhere near at the end of the week (except SW) and the Scandi HP will extend further W than currently modelled? Also could it be the following week sees even colder upper temps -15C.

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z T150 v 12z T156:

it is baby steps here, and it might go nowhere, but just a suggestion of the block holding firmer, crack of light blues south Greenland?  

[radiohead]

18Z GFS is a move in the right direction! If we could just get that ridge to develop a bit further west....

[Tim Bland]

Snow fizzling out, most people burried and still under cold air...GET IN

[CentralSouthernSnow]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

The pub run has an impressive snow event next Friday!

 

Yes a snow to rain event... 

[ancientsolar]

Nice to see the GFS staying dominant into Friday and the atlantic low barely has an influence temperature wise,, mean while the pressure system over Scandinavia .. tries to make a westwards inching. 

 

[phil nw.]

If GfS is starting to disrupt against the cold block then there must be hope of further improvements. 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The low has given up at T156 hrs , it will now become slow moving , also note the shortwave ejected se at that time .

Yep.. I was flicking through the slides from around 138 to 156 and the low was stopped and at one stage heading north west.. I actually had to check myself to ensure I was not flicking the time slots in reverse... 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

The pub run has an impressive snow event next Friday!

 

Watch the trend next few GFS runs, front will be no where near that fr East! expect it to make it to Ireland

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Yes a snow to rain event... 

not seeing much rain for most areas ? Snow fizzles out

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, TEITS said:

Whilst some are looking W at the low pressure for a possible snowy breakdown. Im looking in the other direction.

Could it be that no fronts will get anywhere near at the end of the week (except SW) and the Scandi HP will extend further W than currently modelled? Also could it be the following week sees even colder upper temps -15C.

Can't see it although if it keeps getting pushed back West with every run to this extent then a chance, but could do with any ridge gaining latitude though, would love you to be right.

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The low has given up at T156 hrs , it will now become slow moving , also note the shortwave ejected se at that time .

???

[Alexis]

1050mb Scand High now formed

[sheikhy]

Massive upgrade on the 18z!!

[CentralSouthernSnow]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow depth by Weds ...

 

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

If GfS is starting to disrupt against the cold block then there must be hope of further improvements. 

Ensembles will be interesting! And the 0Z runs....

[Notty]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow fizzling out, most people burried and still under cold air...GET IN

Just like this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1982/Rrea00119820108.gif

[Johnp]

Nothing to see at 174hrs, just a 1050mb Scandi High. 

A wtf moment!

[nick sussex]

It’s still going to be difficult to maintain the cold as the low is reluctant to disrupt a second time . It’s going to start pivoting in response to the upstream pattern so it might be a case of waiting to see if it can go much more vertical.

[High Altitude]

11 minutes ago, Jason M said:

One of the slightly sad things about tech improving is that the complete surprise weather event is getting less and less. I remember in 81 snow moving in from the west and being forecast to turn to rain. I'll always remember the forecaster saying that the mild air was about to reach the east coast and looking out the window to see it hammering down with snow still. The front never did clear Essex and Kent and moved all the way back west the following day!! Because the charts are so good now room for this type of event is almost zero these days.

This is true. But the margin for error still seems to be 3/4 days. Small changes in that time frame can lead to a whole new pattern down stream. The default flow is west to east and the models always seem (from what I can see) to revert to that mind set. Even the meto revert to that after the immediate time frame. Always sit in the fence. I know I’m off topic do I’ll leave it there. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

???

Looks like the Atlantic has stalled between T144 and T168, the 0C uppers line gets no further through Cornwall and is thinking of pushing back? (this is what I thought was going to happen on the ECM earlier)

[ancientsolar]

If the snow turns to rain on Friday.. it will just end up falling on surfaces and turning to ice.. the ground will be absolutely freezing. 

Do we have some uppers to go with these GFS charts?

[Alexis]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It’s still going to be difficult to maintain the cold as the low is reluctant to disrupt a second time . It’s going to start pivoting in response to the upstream pattern so it might be a case of waiting to see if it can go much more vertical.

True, but we then have -24C 850s lurking on the continent.

[TSNWK]

Friday is another day on this run..