Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone else drumming their fingers.  Now up to T+6 for me lol.  Must be a great pub run coming up with a renewed Scandi high! We wish. 

Takes a lot more time to compute the monstrous snow amounts it’s about to churn out.

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Something for the south west?  Are there any here or did they all give up ? Where is @BARRY?

trying not to get to excited Tim 

 

[Man With Beard]

This is the moment for me when the action really begins. The cold pattern was secured days ago, but only now are we close enough to start forecasting the snow with any confidence. 5 or 6 days with potential to snow - anywhere. Would you bet against a trough forming in the north sea at some point? Or the front for Sunday extending west? Or the low passing by the south west being a lot more significant than it looks now? You wouldn't bet against any of these things. But now's when it really starts on the models.

[rug]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Something for the south west?  Are there any here or did they all give up ? Where is @BARRY?

Im here. Bring it on!

 

[nick sussex]

Already a slowing upstream here . PV held a bit further back and heights better in the nw Atlantic.

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, BARRY said:

trying not to get to excited Tim 

 

Nightmare this one. Everything tells you it will correct south but you can't stop yourself imagining the whole lot coming ashore!

[That ECM]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Already a slowing upstream here . PV held a bit further back and heights better in the nw Atlantic.

[Blueshadow]

7 minutes ago, BARRY said:

trying not to get to excited Tim 

 

Am quietly keeping an eye on it myself Barry, know what our luck is like on the south coast of Devon. 

[That ECM]

How long were we looking at that flipping low over us east, west, north and south

[High Altitude]

I don’t post often, but a long time lurker, going back to BBC snow watch days. Only thing I’ll add is that over the years, Dec 2010 as an example, once the cold is entrenched the break down is always delayed. Back in 2010 I remember the models breaking it down after 4/5 days, then it’s extended etc etc. In the end it lasted a month. Granted it wasn’t a snow fest every day, but the cold held out. As long as this spell evolves as shown then I’d be surprised to see any break down making it much further than skirting the south before cold reasserts itself. The models are always to quick to break cold spells down. 

[Tim Bland]

23 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thats a big change towards ecm mate!!!

Is that a good thing? Ps anyone know what the EPS look like tonight

[Tim Bland]

Snow depth by Weds ...

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is that a good thing? Ps anyone know what the EPS look like tonight

 

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is that a good thing? Ps anyone know what the EPS look like tonight

 

The cold lovers in Greece, Turkey and Romania will want that chart to come off!

[sheikhy]

Gfs going towards ecm at 120 hours

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, High Altitude said:

I don’t post often, but a long time lurker, going back to BBC snow watch days. Only thing I’ll add is that over the years, Dec 2010 as an example, once the cold is entrenched the break down is always delayed. Back in 2010 I remember the models breaking it down after 4/5 days, then it’s extended etc etc. In the end it lasted a month. Granted it wasn’t a snow fest every day, but the cold held out. As long as this spell evolves as shown then I’d be surprised to see any break down making it much further than skirting the south before cold reasserts itself. The models are always to quick to break cold spells down. 

One of the slightly sad things about tech improving is that the complete surprise weather event is getting less and less. I remember in 81 snow moving in from the west and being forecast to turn to rain. I'll always remember the forecaster saying that the mild air was about to reach the east coast and looking out the window to see it hammering down with snow still. The front never did clear Essex and Kent and moved all the way back west the following day!! Because the charts are so good now room for this type of event is almost zero these days.

[gman88667733]

18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Something for the south west?  Are there any here or did they all give up ? Where is @BARRY?

I'd be right in the best spot in that! 

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Something for the south west?  Are there any here or did they all give up ? Where is @BARRY?

All but given up! 

[Premiere Neige]

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

One of the slightly sad things about tech improving is that the complete surprise weather event is getting less and less. I remember in 81 snow moving in from the west and being forecast to turn to rain. I'll always remember the forecaster saying that the mild air was about to reach the east coast and looking out the window to see it hammering down with snow still. The front never did clear Essex and Kent and moved all the way back west the following day!! Because the charts are so good now room for this type of event is almost zero these days.

I've had a surprise snowfall when sleet/rain was forecast and surprise rainfall when snow was forecast already this winter...

[Tim Bland]

Thurs eve 12z Vs 18z

[Notty]

Disruption central GFS12z op t+144

[Notty]

What LP?

[Tim Bland]

Very snowy start to Friday for most ️

[nick sussex]

The low has given up at T156 hrs , it will now become slow moving , also note the shortwave ejected se at that time .

[Matt H]

The pub run has an impressive snow event next Friday!

 

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Thurs eve 12z Vs 18z

min max temperatures, Thursday night is just like any other night with min max temperatures, absolutely below freezing right into somerset and Devon ,,, the low pressure seemingly being delayed by 24 hours .. and may'be not making it at all.