Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

ECM 12 op,  a week on Monday (15th Feb) 00.00hrs

Wow freezing still . They’ll be 7 to 8 days straight of ice days

Edited February 5, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Cold Winter Night]

24 hours ago I compared the Friday noon charts from EC Op. Wednesday's 216h with Thursday's 192h.

Today we can add 168h.

Call me crazy, but you can see how much latitude the High has gained. Modelled ever more North and West, the cold in E-Europe ever more South, the Atlantic low ever more South.

What will tomorrow's 144h look like?
What if today's 168h-216h are underestimated too?

[Paul]

UKV 15z has shifted the Sunday prec a bit north, with some sizeable totals showing and signs of long reaching streamers..

 

For the following days, lots of showers packing into the east and quite widespread snow cover. Here's Monday as an example, but Tues and Weds follow suit with snow totals building. And hints of some snow moving up into southern areas on Tuesday as well. 

 

 

[Man With Beard]

Worth a note - the extremely rare "channel streamer" sets up on the ECM on Tuesday - bringing snow to the most snow barren parts of the UK, South Devon and Cornwall, and possibly the IOW. Even the Isles of Scilly are in the sleet zone!

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s in Fahrenheit but still very cold at the surface next weekend especially where any snow lingers 

Ice days still.

Wow.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Was about to say before Paul beat me to it...

But quite a significant improvement on the UKV 15z in my opinion for Sat Night & Sunday. The pictures below show the 12z and 15z for 2am on the Sunday:

Edited February 5, 2021 by Ben Sainsbury

[Cloud 10]

Well,if nothing else the ECM should boost the business of Tunisian ear-muff sellers.

 

Still lots to resolve in the medium-longer term.

 

[Summerstorm]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Ice days still.

Wow.

Bare in mind that is for 6pm as it says 12 CST at the bottom. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Summerstorm

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow freezing still . They’ll be 7 to 8 days straight of ice days

That's a night temperature though 

A week on Sunday is above freezing

 

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Bare in mind that is for 6pm as it says 12 CST at the bottom. 

Yep, by the Monday on the ecm it’s 10-11c in the west at 6am with all that milder air. Takes longest to reach the east of course. All conjecture at this stage!

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Worth a note - the extremely rare "channel streamer" sets up on the ECM on Tuesday - bringing snow to the most snow barren parts of the UK, South Devon and Cornwall, and possibly the IOW. Even the Isles of Scilly are in the sleet zone!

I’d love to see that happen as it was part of the conclusions of the Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee from a few days back !

Thats the best chance for those areas with a shortwave approaching and ahead of it changing the flow to a more ese.

Or of course a shortwave getting close enough for some frontal snow .

Edited February 5, 2021 by nick sussex

[Lukesluckybunch]

Please correct me if this doesn't make sense,but with the snow forecast in the East and southeast.with the ongoing easterly wind wouldn't you expect that snow band to pivot around and push more further inland rather then retreat back to the coast,at present it's looking like Norfolk Suffolk and Kent will get quite a lot perhaps as much as 20cm.I am staying in Bicester Oxfordshire would somebody please like to tell me am I likely to get snow here or perhaps I'm too far west?

Edited February 5, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch

[Anthony Burden]

ECM showing a complete week of some fantastic wintery weather snow a plenty ice days

all thrown in,let’s all get out and enjoy it could be winters last roar or maybe not.

[Chesil View]

10 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Worth a note - the extremely rare "channel streamer" sets up on the ECM on Tuesday - bringing snow to the most snow barren parts of the UK, South Devon and Cornwall, and possibly the IOW. Even the Isles of Scilly are in the sleet zone!

any chance of coastal south Dorset catching a bit of that action , MWB?

[rug]

9 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Worth a note - the extremely rare "channel streamer" sets up on the ECM on Tuesday - bringing snow to the most snow barren parts of the UK, South Devon and Cornwall, and possibly the IOW. Even the Isles of Scilly are in the sleet zone!

Oh my word, I’ll pray to any deity to make his happen........

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ecm 12z up to 168 hours!!this is how i expected the 144 hour chart to look on ukmo but i dunno what happened lol!!!also winds are east north east from 48 hours to 144 hours so more areas getting in the act for snow showers!!!ukmo a bit to south east right now!!

[TSNWK]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s in Fahrenheit but still very cold at the surface next weekend especially where any snow lingers 

blommin heck thats another ice day week tomorrow for the vast bulk of England - interesting that Scotland is warmer - indication of cold surface flow from continent I guess for England ?

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Please correct me if this doesn't make sense,but with the snow forecast in the East and southeast.with the ongoing easterly wind wouldn't you expect that snow band to pivot around and push more further inland rather then retreat back to the coast,at present it's looking like Norfolk Suffolk and Kent will get quite a lot perhaps as much as 20cm.I am staying in Bicester Oxfordshire would somebody please like to tell me am I likely to get snow here or perhaps I'm too far west?

It’s just a small scale feature that’s going to run across that SE corner before sliding away. The surface easterly winds won’t blow the front further inland unfortunately! You’d be really pushing it for snow in Bicester....may see a little bit of lucky, but not a great deal. Too far west.

[danm]

57 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

we should not assume this is a one way street - what has swung east could well yet swing west a bit 

Yes and snow depth charts out to Tuesday aren’t likely to include convection. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s just a small scale feature that’s going to run across that SE corner before sliding away. The surface easterly winds won’t blow the front further inland unfortunately! You’d be really pushing it for snow in Bicester....may see a little bit of lucky, but not a great deal. Too far west.

Yes agree with you..but still likely to see some snow showers right?

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes agree with you..but still likely to see some snow showers right?

Certainly possible - all luck though, much like thunderstorms in summer! Some places might see a string of snow showers, others may miss out. Keep an eye on the radar on the day is the best tool to use.

[Mike Poole]

HARMONIE 12z take on Sunday’s snow chances:

 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, danm said:

Yes and snow depth charts out to Tuesday aren’t likely to include convection. 

I don't buy into this at all, i must admit i can only speak for the 2 locations i have been in the last 10 years but they literally nailed the convective lying snow totals to a tee in 2018 Easterly, also the 2010 and 2013 Easterlies, i find if anything its battlegrounds the models don't get right, particularly the Euro4, it so often had the snowline somewhere like Wigan inferring Manchester was going to see lying snow, and in reality Saddleworth didn't get any falling snow at 600ft and 1000ft on the hills it was just a brief whitening you could see quickly disappearing.

[Climate Man]

32 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow freezing still . They’ll be 7 to 8 days straight of ice days

Midnight...

 

 

[Mike Poole]

Interesting model output again tonight, I’m interested in what happens at T144, here GEM and ECM:

As modelled, no way that weak block will stop the Atlantic low or send it under.  But I wonder how much uncertainty there is about that low at this time?  I wonder if it might look weaker when it is at T96 in 2 days time?  

And after the mild interlude if it is an interlude, what next?  

I think I would like to have the cold air in place, tomorrow or Sunday, before trying to predict nature of the breakdown, and what happens afterwards.