Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[chris55]

UKMO trending the wrong way at 144 with the Atlantic Low edging north east pulling up an Iberian ridge ahead. Still a way to go on the eventual modelling of this though, will await ECM with interest. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by chris55

[Kreftysoton]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Anyone calling the cold spell over at the end of the week is being a bit premature. The block is putting up a bit more of a fight it seems.

It will be so tough with all the energy in the eastern seaboard probably as strong as its been all winter. Will have to be so strong to keep pushing back low after low.

[sheikhy]

Just now, chris55 said:

UKMO trending the wrong way at 144 with the Atlantic Low trending north east pulling up an Iberian ridge ahead. Still a way to go on the eventual modelling of this though, will await ECM with interest. 

Yeh was expecting better at 144 hours when looking at the 120 hour chart!!still good but expected to slide a bit more!!ukmo looks poor though before that for a lot of people!!we need a more east north east component!!

[Matt Jones]

I don't think it really matters here the end result is less cold air by Thursday that takes any snow risk away for most. If I can get a covering out of this cold snap I will be happy enough. For me the UKMO 144hr didn't look good yesterday evening or this morning.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Matt Jones

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Aspege showing channel low moving more north into southern counties Tuesday. Icon says no. Gfs scrapes the coast. 

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

And then i look at the ukmo between 72 and 120 hours and winds are south easterly which means maybe not as much shower activity with drier air of the continent!!

Hi bud. Winds don't follow isobars that's an easterly fetch I believe. 

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Don't troughs tend to crop up at short notice though, and aren't usually well modelled?

I really think that many more people will get the snow that what the models are currently showing.

Yep. As has been repeated a million times but some people just don’t listen. Showers will be far more widespread than any model is showing. Happens every time and then people act surprised.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh was expecting better at 144 hours when looking at the 120 hour chart!!still good but expected to slide a bit more!!ukmo looks poor though before that for a lot of people!!we need a more east north east component!!

Things seem to have trended the wrong way today with this cold spell/snap in both the shorter term i.e. weekend and next week!  Hopefully things will look up again as it hasn't even started yet?!

[Cold Winter Night]

9 minutes ago, Notty said:

UKMO -v- GFS Op at T+144

Better than 06z I think

It's been a long time since we last saw agreement between UKMO and GFS at 144h!

It is looking quite likely now that the Atlantic will not push all the way through. It will be halted, before the cold returns, helped by a Scandi High.

The question then will be: Where will the battlefield be?

This forum might break out in a Southwest vs Northeast fight .
The line could end up somewhere between Germany and West of Ireland, with, in my opinion, the most likely position being right where GFS and UKMO show it to be.

[Malcolm Edwards]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Yep. As has been repeated a million times but some people just don’t listen. Showers will be far more widespread than any model is showing. Happens every time and then people act surprised.

Same thing happened to us here in west cornwall 2018 when it looked like a miss for us and last minute we got our snow. I believe everyone is in for a chance this time. 

 

[Tim Bland]

From winter to spring in a week. No IMBY fights next weekend! 

[Battleground Snow]

Gem starting to show powerful streamers setting up on Sunday and Monday now.

This is a good sign on a global model that far out.

[beefy201]

This could be what we need (in The Midlands) nice streamer setting up could be around all day the arparge model has been performing well with its precipitation forecast during most of the cold outbreaks

[chionomaniac]

Anyone want to bet that this east Europe block is more west and north come nearer the time?

 

[icykev]

Can not really moan about GEM @ +66, keep it coming!

Looking for heights to build around +120

+78 screaming streamers

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by icykev

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

This could be what we need (in The Midlands) nice streamer setting up could be around all day the arparge model has been performing well with its precipitation forecast during most of the cold outbreaks

Good heavens.   If I'm reading that correct there is some patchy drizzle in the south east and snow sleet shows in across south Yorkshire into Cheshire. 

What is this model please and its reputation

Edited February 5, 2021 by TSNWK

[Tim Bland]

Precip ensembles for London show why Sunday & Monday isn’t a bust for the south east... 

[beefy201]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Good heavens.   If I'm reading that correct there is some patchy drizzle in the south east and snow sleet shows in across south Yorkshire into Cheshire. 

What is this model please and its reputation

Sorry spelt it wrong its the arpege I have found its precipitation forecasts the best this winter in my line of work, not to say  its always right mind you 

[Battleground Snow]

Gem putting much more of a fight up compared to the Ukmo and gfs with a stronger scandi high at 150

I think the ECM will be similar later, probably just a delay though

[icykev]

GEM having a go @138 heights there!

[ICE COLD]

I’ll take the GEM 12z at day 6

[That ECM]

Ah a normal winter chart.

Which is why we should enjoy the 5 day cold spell.

Edited February 5, 2021 by That ECM

[chionomaniac]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

I would hope so but knowing our luck probably not!

When I see 2 areas of amplification with a weak trough in between at that kind of timeframe, then it is easy to envisage a slightly different amplification scenario with a little tweaking. So, better amplification nearer the UK, or to our west, then we have a Scandi high and not an EST Europe block.

[XtremeUKWeather]

22 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Yes, substantial, notable and huge downgrades are unfolding at speed with every passing model suite for those not right near the east coast. At this rate even the likes of Leicester are going to be wondering what all the fuss is about. 

If these were Northerly winds, this thread would be calling 'Winter is over' - as London might see a flake, it's all stations go.

Really average event being signposted for a vast swathe of the entire nation as we speak.

Certainly not a widespread notable SNOWY event that some have been discussing. 

Huge disappointment after 2 entire weeks of micro analysis and what felt like 1 million hurdles to jump.

Let's hope for some later upgrades.

GFS Has the winds easterlies for the northern half and more NE’ly for southern parts. very good for setting streamers up

[Man With Beard]

One more update on my forecast for next week. Moved the "snow sun/mon" line further south in accordance with ARPEGE/AROME. Accepted the likelihood of milder air pushing in later in the week on GFS + others, though still time to revert back to more of a slider scenario!