February cold spell discussion and chat

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

On 05/02/2021 at 12:22, Norrance said:

To give a taster of what may be coming. Here are a couple of pics from the Southern Central Highlands. The one in the dark from early this morning and the other from yesterday afternoon.

Looks stunning, one can dream for a covering like that 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

21 hours ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

The amount of overhyping that happens in this forum should be banned. This cold spell is no beast. It’s your average cold spell with a snow event in one part of the country. Not country wide or wide spread. Everything is watered down and I’m sure by Friday it’s turning mild for the foreseeable 

This couldn’t have aged any worse at the moment. 

I don’t think it’s too overhyped. Netherlands and Germany are likening this event to 1978, and there could be ice days for over a week and a half. As for the banning part!? You’ve lost me there. 

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

The Met Office are forecasting zero ice days here. Very underwhelming.

They might be showing a temperature of 1 or 2 degrees but this doesn’t factor in the windchill which will make it feel like much colder and definitely sub zero 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

This couldn’t have aged any worse at the moment. 

I don’t think it’s too overhyped. Netherlands and Germany are likening this event to 1978, and there could be ice days for over a week and a half. As for the banning part!? You’ve lost me there. 

We don’t live in Germany.. 

[Methuselah]

Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

We don’t live in Germany.. 

Smart Alec!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

We don’t live in Germany.. 

Doesn’t matter! We could still see Lake effect type snow for days on end in many eastern parts, all the way from Kent to Northumberland. Places could have feet of snow by the end of the week. Hardly overhyping, it’s a serious event. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Southwest have yet to see a flake or a channel low. 

Wednesday and Thursday could be the day for you. Possible N France or channel low sweeping through. 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Wednesday and Thursday could be the day for you. Possible N France or channel low sweeping through. 

Aspege and icon have it clipping the coast or in the channel at the moment it’s very knife edge Tuesday 

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

22 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

We don’t live in Germany.. 

Quote

Well we have had snow on the ground since Christmas Eve apart from 2 or 3 days.  It has been snowing since Wednesday morning although it did turn sleety Thursday morning but have in excess of a foot. Today increasingly cold with blowing snow with serious drifting setting in now so maybe these conditions will work down across the country as the cold spreads in from the east and cheers some people up

 

[AmatuerMet1963]

On 05/02/2021 at 13:51, syed2878 said:

 Nothing for here either the yellow warning that met issued yesterday they cancelled it today as I expected to be honest I think this cold spell has been overhyped especially here on in that weather Yes don’t get me wrong it looks good for South East UK East UK and Scotland every where else I don’t think much will come of it.

Well. like many stories, you have to be prepared for the script to be re written. Tonight BBC weather is now saying the strong , maybe 30mph East winds will blow a stream of snow showers maybe tonight or on Sunday, "all the way from East to West", getting at times as far as Ireland!!! So the N West region could get quite some blowing snow showers by Sunday into monday.

Quite surprised really .  But on other hand, its the very strong winds with wind chill to -3%C "Daytime feel" thats feeding these snow showers over to us in N West.  We will see what happens, is all you can do and wait what ever nature intends to hand out. The Winds got up last few hours, Poked nose out of kitchen window and closed it again in a hurry!!! so think leave radiators on a little overnight. BBC weather watchers are going to have a ball next few days. The winds really getting going now, almost already half a gale here!"I howling against our wall.. suppose its safe to say, "Not until the fat lady sings!!"

Batten down the hatches!!!  "Tis not over yet"!!!

[AmatuerMet1963]

5 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Doesn’t matter! We could still see Lake effect type snow for days on end in many eastern parts, all the way from Kent to Northumberland. Places could have feet of snow by the end of the week. Hardly overhyping, it’s a serious event. 

I posted a bit of news just now.  The Beeb admits that the conveyor belt of possibly heavy snow showers will cross from East to West, even giving some snow sprinkles as far as Ireland!!! 

So the N West Lancashire and Manchester inland may still get some, and OMG that wind outside has really increased to almost gale force, its starting to howl around the windows with that whistling sound. So anything could happen during Sunday Monday and Tuesday. brrrr

[Frigid]

32 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

I posted a bit of news just now.  The Beeb admits that the conveyor belt of possibly heavy snow showers will cross from East to West, even giving some snow sprinkles as far as Ireland!!! 

So the N West Lancashire and Manchester inland may still get some, and OMG that wind outside has really increased to almost gale force, its starting to howl around the windows with that whistling sound. So anything could happen during Sunday Monday and Tuesday. brrrr

Manchester will be bone dry and the temperatures are a bit underwhelming considering the 850hpa temps. On the bright side, MetO is now forecasting snow on Tuesday, could be one of those streamers!

[AmatuerMet1963]

5 hours ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

They might be showing a temperature of 1 or 2 degrees but this doesn’t factor in the windchill which will make it feel like much colder and definitely sub zero 

yes the law of school days physics. If you blast some water with a hair dryer at 2%     That will drop the actual temp of the water below freezing, rather like trying to cool off in summer, poor cold water on you, it evaporates, cooling you. How ever on whether wind chill actually make it more likely to snow , not rain Im actually not sure. Windchill is really a study or condition on humans how our bodies feel colder, rather than the type of weather you may get. I suppose its somewhere inbetween>>>???

[DanDorsetUK]

Not to sure how many of you have spotted just how far west this precip is in relation to predicted this evening. It's a huge swing west. Already raining here in Poole wasn't forecast this early at all. Just goes to show never trust precip charts this week!

[hillbilly]

Pi$$ed down here all day,now touned to snow,already white on high ground!

 

[ANYWEATHER]

11 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

yes the law of school days physics. If you blast some water with a hair dryer at 2%     That will drop the actual temp of the water below freezing, rather like trying to cool off in summer, poor cold water on you, it evaporates, cooling you. How ever on whether wind chill actually make it more likely to snow , not rain Im actually not sure. Windchill is really a study or condition on humans how our bodies feel colder, rather than the type of weather you may get. I suppose its somewhere inbetween>>>???

It's the evaporation of moisture from our skin  ......0c /32f with a wind of 12 mph will result in a wind chill of minus 5c/23f ....hope that helps..!

[Roger J Smith]

Potential for 20-40 cm snowfalls in southeast England. This will set in late tonight as colder uppers arrive from Germany. Some loss to mixing possible near sea level and in core of London heat island but higher portions of the southeast could easily see 30 cm and I would not even rule out isolated 50 cm falls. 

Fairly powerful sea effect streamers will also arrive late tonight or Sunday morning in the Midlands, Yorkshire. May set in earlier than that further north.

[ancientsolar]

Starting to see some sleet on the net weather radar in the SE , looks like the cold air is starting to do its thing.

[DJ Fart]

11 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Potential for 20-40 cm snowfalls in southeast England. This will set in late tonight as colder uppers arrive from Germany. Some loss to mixing possible near sea level and in core of London heat island but higher portions of the southeast could easily see 30 cm and I would not even rule out isolated 50 cm falls. 

Fairly powerful sea effect streamers will also arrive late tonight or Sunday morning in the Midlands, Yorkshire. May set in earlier than that further north.

Will be very, very localised if anyone does see depths anywhere near that by the end of tomorrow. I'd love to be wrong, of course! 

[ANYWEATHER]

The Atlantic  has finally come to a holt...The East is now awakening. ...

[Roger J Smith]

Posted this information in our February contest thread a few days ago, to compare the predicted cold spell to similar events at this stage of the month in past years. The list contains all five-day CET averages that hit the span of days 5-9, 6-10, 7-11, 8-12 or 9-13, and achieved an average of -1.5 C or lower. This happened 27 times in 249 years with daily data. There are also comparisons with cold spells that fell in other parts of the month, especially those in more recent years. The ranks are only comparing the coldest value in the table, not the duration of cold. Although Feb 1947 does not show up near the top of this list the duration was much longer with cold already in place for two weeks before, and lasting four more weeks afterwards. 

The list is arranged chronologically, the notes below the table are listed in no particular order.

 

=== <<< COLD 5-day INTERVALS of PAST CET DAILY YEARS 1772 to 2020 >>> ===

YEAR ___ rank ________ 5-9 Feb __ 6-10 Feb __ 7-11 Feb __ 8-12 Feb __ 9-13 Feb ___ milder CET to 15th

1773 ____ 18 ___________ -1.6 _____ (-1.4) ______ -1.9 _______ -1.6 _______ -1.7 _______ 8.2 15th

1784 ____ 13 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- _______ -2.3 _______ -2.3 _______ cold to 24th

1799 ____t11 ___________ -2.5 _____ -1.6 _______ ------ _______ ----- _______ ----- ________ 6.5 15th

1803 ____t16 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ -1.6 _______ -2.0 _______ ----- ________ 6.1 15th

1816 ____ 03 ___________ -1.6 _____ -3.1 _______ -3.8 _______ -4.4 _______ -3.4 ________ 4.2 16th

1841 ____ 09 ___________ -2.8 _____ -2.5 _______ ----- ________ ----- _______ ----- ________ 7.4 14th

1845 ____ 08 ___________ ----- _____ ----- _______ -1.7 ________ -2.9 _______ -2.5 ________ cold to 26th

1847 ____ 07 ___________ ----- _____ ----- _______ -2.4 ________ -2.9 _______ -3.0 ________ 9.9 17th

1855 ____ 04 ___________ -2.1 _____ -3.0 _______ -3.4 ________ -4.3 _______-4.3 ________ cold to 25th

1860 ____t16 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- ________ ----- _______ -2.0 ________ cold to 25th

1864 ____ t22___________(-1.4) ____ -1.5 ________ ----- ________ ----- _______ ----- ________ 8.1 12th

1870 ____ 10 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- ________ -1.7 _______ -2.7 ________ cold to 23rd

1895 ____ 01 ___________ -6.8 _____ -7.1 _______ -6.5 ________ -5.9 _______ -5.3 ________ cold to 7 Mar  

1900 ____t14 ___________ -1.5 _____ -1.9 _______ -2.1 ________ -2.1 _______ -1.9 ________ 8.0 19th

1902 ____t19 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- ________ ----- _______ -1.8 ________ cold to 23rd

1917 ____ 02 ___________ -5.0 _____ -4.4 _______ -3.3 ________ -1.8 _______ ----- ________ cold to 20th

1919 ____t14 ___________ ----- _____ (-1.4) ______ -1.9 ________ -2.1 _______ -1.6 ________ cold to 20th

1947 ____t19 ___________ -1.8 _____ -1.7 _______ -1.6 ________ -1.7 _______ -1.5 ________ cold to 17 Mar

1978 ____ 21 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- ________ ----- _______ -1.7 ________ cold to 23rd

1985 ____ 05 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ ----- ________ -1.7 _______ -3.5 ________ cold to 23rd

1986 ____t11 ___________ ----- _____ -2.0 ________ -2.4 ________ -2.5 _______ -2.5 _______ cold to 5th Mar

1991 ____ 06 ___________ -2.9 _____ -3.3 ________ -3.1 ________ -2.5 _______ -1.8 _______ cold to 21st

2012 ____t22 ___________ ----- _____ ----- ________ (-1.4) _______ -1.5 _______ ----- _______ 7.9 17th

________________________________________________________

Some other cold spells not quite in the intervals analyzed above (first half of Feb only)

In 1830, 2-6 Feb average was -5.3, that cold spell yielded to 5.8 on 8th

In 1853, 11-15 Feb average was -1.7 but this spell is known to have produced heavy snowfalls.

In 1912, 1-5 Feb average was -3.2 and by 9th it was 9.0.

In 1929, 12-16 and 13-17 Feb averaged -6.1 but this spell did not qualify during the intervals above.

In 1940, 10-14 Feb averaged -1.5 and it warmed to 8.0 by 22nd-23rd.

In 1947, after the qualifying cold spells, the lowest five day average was -4.2 (21-25).

In 1954, 1-5 Feb averaged -3.3, it stayed cold to 7th but slowly warmed to 5.9 by 14th. 

In 1956, 1-5 Feb averaged -3.5, it was 6.3 by 6th but turned cold again for most of the month.

In 1963, 1-5 Feb averaged -2.7, the rest of the month was cold although no five day interval 5-14 qualified.

In 1969, 8th was -3.8 but no intervals qualified, the coldest five days came later (15-19 Feb -2.3).

In 1970, 12th-16th averaged -1.1, quite cold for more recent decades. It reached 8.5 by 22nd.

In 1979, 14th-18th averaged -1.8. It stayed quite cold with 4.9 on 23rd the only near normal day to 2nd March.

In 1983, 9th-13th managed -0.2, but the whole month was rather cold until the 26th.

In 1996, 4th-8th averaged -0.6, and it warmed to 6.3 on the 11th.

In 2007, 5th-9th averaged -0.2, and it warmed to 8.0 on the 12th.

In 2009, 2nd-6th averaged -0.2, and it warmed to 7.7 on the 17th.

In 2018, the late Feb early Mar cold spell had an average of -2.2 for 26 Feb to 2 Mar. 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[ArHu3]

10 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

This couldn’t have aged any worse at the moment. 

I don’t think it’s too overhyped. Netherlands and Germany are likening this event to 1978, and there could be ice days for over a week and a half. As for the banning part!? You’ve lost me there. 

1979 it is not but I'm happy with what we've got, finally after 8 years it's probably cold again 

[Roger J Smith]

Snow chances should improve steadily this morning as colder 850s just arriving now on east coast, temps and dew points falling steadily all through Netherlands and western Germany, and daytime convection more vigorous with higher tops, readings on hills in Germany show how unstable the profile is with this air mass, so all things considered, any lingering rain or sleet in southeast should change over to snow around 0800-0900h. 

While -7 850s can be acceptable for snow, -10 is probably more of a guarantee. Assuming the hourly forecasts on GFS are accurate the values are just now reaching -10 near the Thames estuary and the east coast. 

I think conditions for snow should continue to improve from now to mid-day.

[Doctor96]

Many on here get excited when we have minus 11 uppers and talk of snow . However currently where I live 12 miles inland from coast it is rainy with temp of 1.7 c and the uppers are -11 c . We really need for low ground ( majority ) pretty cold air to get snow . Will the east coast really see snow on the models this week or is the bbc correct sleet 

[Light Without Heat]

3 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

Many on here get excited when we have minus 11 uppers and talk of snow . However currently where I live 12 miles inland from coast it is rainy with temp of 1.7 c and the uppers are -11 c . We really need for low ground ( majority ) pretty cold air to get snow . Will the east coast really see snow on the models this week or is the bbc correct sleet 

Snowing currently in Hull similar distance!