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North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Sale, Cheshire
  • Location: Sale, Cheshire

    I hope the ppn sticks around for all our members who are starting to see the snow fall... a good few hours this evening should give a decent amount that could stick around for a while!

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    I had to get out before the sun melted it all. 

    Some brilliant walking conditions this morning apart from the sheer depth of snow, almost a foot fell here last night and not a Met O warning in site. made for some good photographs though, altho

    Heaviest single fall of snow for several years here and the heaviest in April since 1981.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    This is going to get put to the test alright, local experience and the ever growing signal for streamer activity from the short range mods Mon/Tues

    VS

    This from the MetO

    Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

    Sunny spells with occasional snow showers, mainly in eastern areas, throughout the period.

    Feeling very cold with widespread overnight ice and frost, and strong easterly winds.

    Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sat 6 Feb 2021

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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

    Heavy snow Friday morning too potentially, highly uncertain but potentially disruptive especially west of the region. Not at all marginal. 
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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

    Heavy snow Friday morning too potentially, highly uncertain but potentially disruptive especially west of the region. Not at all marginal. 
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    Just nipping to the BANK with that right now!

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    6 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

    There will be subtle differences to shower/streamer distribution between Monday and Tuesday. See ICON 12z . Extremely subtle but try not to worry about being too far north or too far south , aside from streamers there will be general scattered showers too probably. 

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    Lincs to > Derbyshire streamer 75% confidence - 10-20cm+ from N Lincs, parts of S Yorks and into Chesterfield 

    Chance of 10-20cm around this area (between Leeds and Nottingham) is ~50% (still quite high) but reflecive of uncertainty in the streamer position

    A direct hit west of the Pennine 150m contour would result in 5-10cm

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
    3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

    Heavy snow Friday morning too potentially, highly uncertain but potentially disruptive especially west of the region. Not at all marginal. 
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    Would that be the beginning of a prolonged breakdown? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
    3 minutes ago, snowdrifter said:

    Would that be the beginning of a prolonged breakdown? 

    Very very uncertain at present. Currently favoured is high pressure moving in with warmer air aloft but possibly staying very cold at the surface. Too early to say. Definitely a snow risk especially for western parts of the region later in the week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
    5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Lincs to > Derbyshire streamer 75% confidence - 10-20cm+ from N Lincs, parts of S Yorks and into Chesterfield 

    Chance of 10-20cm around this area (between Leeds and Nottingham) is ~50% (still quite high) but reflecive of uncertainty in the streamer position

    A direct hit west of the Pennine 150m contour would result in 5-10cm

    Cheers Kasim. I think the streamer’s likely position is a tad too far south for us currently but very very fine margins. 

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    Posted
  • Location: St helens, Merseyside 46m asl
  • Location: St helens, Merseyside 46m asl

    Heavier rain now temp down to 3.8°c

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    Posted
  • Location: High Crompton, Shaw (213m/699ft asl)
  • Location: High Crompton, Shaw (213m/699ft asl)

    Well the latest update from the Met app has me happy.. I don't know why though as the last update had none... they may as well scrap the 5 day forecast and just do a 1 day one, even then probably be wrong - but there is something  nice about seeing those snow symbols again 😂

     image.thumb.png.1c154f9ed57d8795eb61bd56f6602776.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

    12z GFS has this very very broad idea for Monday lunchtime. Not to be taken literally but a good indicator of possible position.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

    All but stopped here at the moment but looking at the radar there’s more on its way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    7 minutes ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

    Well the latest update from the Met app has me happy.. I don't know why though as the last update had none... they may as well scrap the 5 day forecast and just do a 1 day one, even then probably be wrong - but there is something  nice about seeing those snow symbols again 😂

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    It makes me happy when your happy with the app. 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

    12z GFS has this very very broad idea for Monday lunchtime. Not to be taken literally but a good indicator of possible position.

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    I make that about t48 now.

    GFS, GEM, EURO4 & the people who live here lol.

    But the Met still says NO!!!

    Hmmm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
    1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

    The first one was t54, here's the second at t60.

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    Some could be under a decent streamer for several hours!

    This has been modeled from about t108 if I remember rightly so I will be mighty impressed if it's correct.

     

    The GEM is an extreme model. Should be taken with caution. But if we take the general pattern then we may get something even here 

    Edited by SP1986
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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

    Sorry for the running commentary lol. 12z ARPEGE has the main streamer further south into the north midlands & Cheshire potentially , but plenty of opportunity for showers across our patch. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    A fairly decent day here so far, cold wind, but dry with bright sunny spells at times and blue sky. Temp currently 4.6 degrees. We appear to be missing today's precipitation - rare for Cumbria to be the driest part in the whole of N England and unusual to see lots of rain in Lancashire but not here. Alas we have more than our fair share.

    Hoping we catch a few snow showers over the coming days, a cm or two cover would be nice, especially given it won't clear.. but at the same time, will make for treacherous walking conditions on icy pavements once the frost gets to work.

    Attention turning to the radar from tomorrow onwards, looking to our east and hoping the Pennines don't gobble it all up.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    3 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

    The GEM is an extreme model. Should be taken with caution. But if we take the general pattern then we may get something even here 

    I know mate, however in this situation I'm paying it more attention due to this from Matt Hugo:

    "Short-term convergence zones very difficult to model, some models rarely get put to the test for obviously reasons across NW Europe, different story for the Great Lakes, one of the reasons why I think the GEM model is good in this setup..."

    Plus there is Euro4, GFS and a couple of others on board now which the GEM started picking up around t100.

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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

    Massive snow event across the NW on the 12z GFS Thursday night. Supports ICON. 
    West of the region worst affected (assuming there would be a shadow further east). Deep snow with drifting a real possibility especially in the west, Merseyside etc. 
     

    DON’T get excited as I bet in reality it won’t get this far. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
    1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

    I know mate, however in this situation I'm paying it more attention due to this from Matt Hugo:

    "Short-term convergence zones very difficult to model, some models rarely get put to the test for obviously reasons across NW Europe, different story for the Great Lakes, one of the reasons why I think the GEM model is good in this setup..."

    Plus there is Euro4, GFS and a couple of others on board now which the GEM started picking up around t100.

    Oh without doubt we will see settling snow at some point. I remember 2018 and how easy the showers made it across from the east. Unfortunately at that point it was slightly marginal at first and when it became less marginal the showers disappeared. 

     

    This time though there will be absolutely no marginality about it.. what falls will stick.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nelson 160mASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow ,sunny warm days or freezing cold frosty ones.
  • Location: Nelson 160mASL

    Looking at the Radar of the colder weather north to here, any snow stops going west from Carlisle to Lancaster ...about 5 miles east of the M6 the snow just stops in a near on straight line southwards...Will this line grow and come to us?

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    Posted
  • Location: Walton le Dale, Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, icy, snowy etc
  • Location: Walton le Dale, Preston, Lancashire

    2.5°C and clearing skies here now

     

    No rain, blue skies but lots of looming black clouds in the distance. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

    Really hope some of these charts come off for later next week. 

    Would be a massive event for the region. Widespread heavy snow falling at temps well below freezing. Not even sure if there would be a snow shadow in Manchester as the 10m wind charts show a southerly.

    ANYWAY lots to keep us interested before then, but one can dream. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Littleborough,Greater manchester 164m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer storms, hot summer days and Snow :)
  • Location: Littleborough,Greater manchester 164m asl

    When can we expect negative dew points in the region? Had snow at 11am but not much in the way of sleet etc since 

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