North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Day 10]

Day 5 Fax.

is that a trough I see in the distance just about to cross the North Sea.

Long way out, but these are the features to keep an eye for next week.

Hopefully some crop up before then.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Day 10

[WillinGlossop]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Day 5 Fax.

is that a trough I see just in the distance just about to cross the North Sea.

Long way out, but these are the features to keep an eye for next week.

Hopefully some crop up before then.

New fax charts I’m duly informed are out 730pm... that’s yesterday’s 

Edited February 5, 2021 by WillinGlossop

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, WillinGlossop said:

New fax charts I’m informed are out 730pm... that’s yesterday’s 

My bad, model fatigue. Interested to see it later then.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Looking at this thread it appears to have been a westerly front meeting with an existing Easterly and providing breakdown snow.

 

Although I am sure the many on here old enough to remember it will be able to clear things up. I've heard this referred to many times as one of the holy grails for snow lovers on the West Coast, and there's a remote possibility of a rerun in the next few weeks depending on the track of the current Atlantic Low. 

It was a stalling occluded front that bumped into cold air, it only slowly inched it's way east. It was a relatively narrow band. There was a blocking high to the NE, behind the front there was a NW flow. The front fizzled over the Pennines eventually and the cold pool held in place until the Friday. We had 18 inches.

[matty40s]

Cant believe this one got past you all, could see it shining from Stoke, picture taken from Charnock Richard, amazed not to see lightning out of this structure, now over Lancaster.

Shows the amount of instability ready to kick off.

2nd pic blackpool, now.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

As others said, I suspect some places will miss out but that is just life. However I still suspect places like East Cumbria, greater Manchester and perhaps even Merseyside to get some snowfall.

I looked back at the charts for the Beast and it was more of a ESE'ly flow whilst this time for the most part, it could be more ENE'ly so we see how it plays out. No two set ups are exactly the same.

Do hope for a snowy breakdown but that is too far out to speculate.

Yes the ENE flow bodes better for Cumbria, however, for anything more widespread we need a trough feature or convergence line. It was a trough on 28 Feb 18 that delivered about 4 inches tops here. I'm reminded of 26 Jan 96 when it was more if a east, ENE flow, then we had over 6 inches from a trough feature.

I'm not expecting much on Sunday perhaps a rogue light shower or two. Monday and more particularly Tuesday hold greater promise for something more substantive here. Might see some wet snow on the back edge of the front tomorrow evening, would be nice for a cm or two to create a white base which will not go anywhere fast, it will freeze solid.

[Day 10]

5 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

New fax charts I’m duly informed are out 730pm... that’s yesterday’s 

Here it is

[Chris.R]

@Day10

I mentioned the trough we got on 27th February 2018 the other day as an example of what can happen in this type of set up. I got about 2 inches from that and then about another inch from showers over the next few days. I can’t really complain about what I got..

[Kasim Awan]

5 hours ago, raul_sbd said:

What are your take on things @Kasim Awan as things stand now? Are you going to create one of those snow risk maps for the wknd - next week, will b really nice to have your output on things

The interest is Monday & Tuesday for prolonged streamers producing prolonged light to moderate snow east of the M6. The locations yet to be decided but I feel the Barnsley to Manchester streamer is a hit. Above 200m in the East is in for a pumelling.

[Joe Bloggs]

To be honest, I’m completely exhausted with the run up to this cold spell. I’m sick to the back teeth of seeing chart after chart showing a complete omission of snow falling (or indeed lying) across the entirety of NW England, including eastern parts. 
 

I will be using this as a test of the NWP. If the majority of these models are correct, I will not see ANY snow lying here, not even a dusting, and barely any even falling. If that happens, then fair enough. I will give them more credit in future. Past experience just makes me incredibly dubious. 

Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture. Look at this at T+60 for Christ sake. If you saw that at T+3000 you’d have an image of polar bears crossing the M62 but now I’m getting the impression of fleeting showers with the main source of most people’s weather forecasts (the apps) showing it to be bone dry. Not one flake of snow. 
 

The outcome of this spell will be a learning curve. 
 

[Day 10]

9 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

@Day10

I mentioned the trough we got on 27th February 2018 the other day as an example of what can happen in this type of set up. I got about 2 inches from that and then about another inch from showers over the next few days. I can’t really complain about what I got..

Yes mate, turned out not too bad at all.

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

To be honest, I’m completely exhausted with the run up to this cold spell. I’m sick to the back teeth of seeing chart after chart showing a complete omission of snow falling (or indeed lying) across the entirety of NW England, including eastern parts. 
 

I will be using this as a test of the NWP. If the majority of these models are correct, I will not see ANY snow lying here, not even a dusting, and barely any even falling. If that happens, then fair enough. I will give them more credit in future. Past experience just makes me incredibly dubious. 

Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture. Look at this at T+60 for Christ sake. If you saw that at T+3000 you’d have an image of polar bears crossing the M62 but now I’m getting the impression of fleeting showers with the main source of most people’s weather forecasts (the apps) showing it to be bone dry. Not one flake of snow. 
 

The outcome of this spell will be a learning curve. 
 

GEM now at t72

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

To be honest, I’m completely exhausted with the run up to this cold spell. I’m sick to the back teeth of seeing chart after chart showing a complete omission of snow falling (or indeed lying) across the entirety of NW England, including eastern parts. 
 

I will be using this as a test of the NWP. If the majority of these models are correct, I will not see ANY snow lying here, not even a dusting, and barely any even falling. If that happens, then fair enough. I will give them more credit in future. Past experience just makes me incredibly dubious. 

Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture. Look at this at T+60 for Christ sake. If you saw that at T+3000 you’d have an image of polar bears crossing the M62 but now I’m getting the impression of fleeting showers with the main source of most people’s weather forecasts (the apps) showing it to be bone dry. Not one flake of snow. 
 

The outcome of this spell will be a learning curve. 
 

It's very difficult to predict how the Pennine shield will behave. Based on what I am seeing regarding temperature, heights and duration, I would suggest 1-3cm between the M6 and the 100 metre Pennine contour, possibly 4-8cm if a trough or streamer/convergene sets up. Quite easily 10-20cm over and on the eastern flank of the Pennines.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[chris78]

4 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

To be honest, I’m completely exhausted with the run up to this cold spell. I’m sick to the back teeth of seeing chart after chart showing a complete omission of snow falling (or indeed lying) across the entirety of NW England, including eastern parts. 
 

I will be using this as a test of the NWP. If the majority of these models are correct, I will not see ANY snow lying here, not even a dusting, and barely any even falling. If that happens, then fair enough. I will give them more credit in future. Past experience just makes me incredibly dubious. 

Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture. Look at this at T+60 for Christ sake. If you saw that at T+3000 you’d have an image of polar bears crossing the M62 but now I’m getting the impression of fleeting showers with the main source of most people’s weather forecasts (the apps) showing it to be bone dry. Not one flake of snow. 
 

The outcome of this spell will be a learning curve. 
 

What a great post.  Sometimes I might see a post like as hopecasting, but that was really well argued and I do think past experiences have to count for something.  If I lived in the east of the region or anywhere away from the west coast I would be hopeful too 

[Joe Bloggs]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's very difficult to predict how the Pennine shield will behave. Based on what I am seeing regarding temperature, heights and duration, I would suggest 1-3cm between the M6 and the 100 metre Pennine contour, possibly 4-8cm if a trough or streamer/convergene sets up. Quite easily 10-20cm over and on the eastern flank of the Pennines.

This is the thing Kasim, I didn’t think there was much of a Pennine shield for convective showers. Fronts from the west with a SE’ly wind drying out the precipitation in Manchester , yes, but in most easterlies of the past showers have hopped over the Pennines pretty easily and died further west. 
 

Most of the models (but not all) have showers very abruptly stopping at the Pennine chain this time. 
Edit - always love reading your thoughts btw, some of the most accurate short range forecasts on the net IMO. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Joe Bloggs

[Joe Bloggs]

5 minutes ago, chris78 said:

What a great post.  Sometimes I might see a post like as hopecasting, but that was really well argued and I do think past experiences have to count for something.  If I lived in the east of the region or anywhere away from the west coast I would be hopeful too 

Thanks mate. Just had to get it off my chest.

[Summerstorm]

19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's very difficult to predict how the Pennine shield will behave. Based on what I am seeing regarding temperature, heights and duration, I would suggest 1-3cm between the M6 and the 100 metre Pennine contour, possibly 4-8cm if a trough or streamer/convergene sets up. Quite easily 10-20cm over and on the eastern flank of the Pennines.

Interested on what you are thinking for the south of the region I.e. Cheshire/Merseyside and into North East Wales out of interest?

Unsure on whether it would be better depending on the wind direction as we have less influence from the Pennines.  

Finding your posts very informative by the way so thanks for that 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Summerstorm

[luvsnow]

Hi Guys,

I don't normally post on the threads even though I've been a member since 2009.  I found this website on the internet and just wondered what your thoughts are?

https://www.windy.com/articles?snowAccu,53.587,-2.435,5

[iand61]

Never mind what the weekend holds for the North West, Jo Blyth is doing the forecast on Granada so it ain’t all bad

[Troubleatmill]

1 minute ago, luvsnow said:

Hi Guys,

I don't normally post on the threads even though I've been a member since 2009.  I found this website on the internet and just wondered what your thoughts are?

https://www.windy.com/articles?snowAccu,53.587,-2.435,5

I use windy all the time, very nifty graphics and get loads of ECM data

[Kasim Awan]

12 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

This is the thing Kasim, I didn’t think there was much of a Pennine shield for convective showers. Fronts from the west with a SE’ly wind drying out the precipitation in Manchester , yes, but in most easterlies of the past showers have hopped over the Pennines pretty easily and died further west. 
 

Most of the models (but not all) have showers very abruptly stopping at the Pennine chain this time. 
Edit - always love reading your thoughts btw, some of the most accurate short range forecasts on the net IMO. 

The showers are eroded because the lack of 510DAM increases mixing near the ground and thus the shield effect increases. 

[Kasim Awan]

9 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Interested on what you are thinking for the south of the region I.e. Cheshire/Merseyside and into North East Wales out of interest?

Unsure on whether it would be better depending on the wind direction as we have less influence from the Pennines.  

Finding your posts very informative by the way so thanks for that 

 

Again lighter showers 1-3cm possibly up to 4-8cm further east with a streamer.

[luvsnow]

2 minutes ago, Beano said:

I use windy all the time, very nifty graphics and get loads of ECM data

Yes, looks really good!  I'm hoping to see some snow accumulations on there for us this weekend

[Joe Bloggs]

41 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The interest is Monday & Tuesday for prolonged streamers producing prolonged light to moderate snow east of the M6. The locations yet to be decided but I feel the Barnsley to Manchester streamer is a hit. Above 200m in the East is in for a pumelling.

Sounds great.

[Geordiesnow]

38 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

To be honest, I’m completely exhausted with the run up to this cold spell. I’m sick to the back teeth of seeing chart after chart showing a complete omission of snow falling (or indeed lying) across the entirety of NW England, including eastern parts. 
 

I will be using this as a test of the NWP. If the majority of these models are correct, I will not see ANY snow lying here, not even a dusting, and barely any even falling. If that happens, then fair enough. I will give them more credit in future. Past experience just makes me incredibly dubious. 

Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture. Look at this at T+60 for Christ sake. If you saw that at T+3000 you’d have an image of polar bears crossing the M62 but now I’m getting the impression of fleeting showers with the main source of most people’s weather forecasts (the apps) showing it to be bone dry. Not one flake of snow. 
 

The outcome of this spell will be a learning curve. 
 

I just use the models PPN as a guide, we all know there be less PPN on the western side of the pennines but that is not to say there will be none. I think Manchester will be fine and should see snowfall(might see some as early as tomorrow night), the hills are not as extensive or as high as they are further north so less chance of showers not making it through.

The areas that are not likely to see much if any snowfall will be between North Lancashire(so here) down to around Wigan and the Cumbrian coast barring a trough/front or a streamer. Love to be proven wrong mind and have been many times so that might be a good omen.