North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[matty40s]

On 27/10/2021 at 22:04, Badgers01 said:

Have Derwent water and Buttermere joined up yet that used to be the first sign of trouble ! ? 

I remember us camping by Buttermere one year in the Volksmobile, we could hear lots of activity late on, and woke up to find all the tents gone and us in almost a foot of water.....luckily, being air cooled, we managed to get off the field/lake.

[damianslaw]

39 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

There seems to have been a lul in rainfall here and looking at the system  on the radar it appears to have nudged up and this could my well be it.

Anywhere northwards is being hit.

Very brief lull.. rain quickly came back. However there has been a shift north in the front.. but there are developing waves on it.. and I suspect it has reached it's most northerly position. It will ever so slowly shift southward next 24 hrs which means the Lake District will bear the full force for quite some time. The similarities with 18-19 Nov 2009 and 5 Dec 2015 are startling synoptic wise. 

[Badgers01]

On 27/10/2021 at 23:39, damianslaw said:

Very brief lull.. rain quickly came back. However there has been a shift north in the front.. but there are developing waves on it.. and I suspect it has reached it's most northerly position. It will ever so slowly shift southward next 24 hrs which means the Lake District will bear the full force for quite some time. The similarities with 18-19 Nov 2009 and 5 Dec 2015 are startling synoptic wise. 

I am sure after 2009 the rainfall event was described as a 1 in 100 years event … are we really looking at the 3rd time in 12 years ..??

Edited October 27, 2021 by Badgers01

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

I am sure after 2009 the rainfall event was described as a 1 in 100 years event … are we really looking at the 3rd time in 12 years ..??

I doubt we will see the same rainfall totals as either of those events.. just that the synoptics are similar. Indeed such synoptics seem to be happening more and more often. 

[Frost HoIIow]

Incredible differences in our region today. Not a spot of rain here but still pretty miserable and overcast....not even a tiny bit of blue sky. Looks like it'll be our turn for the rain tomorrow but not as severe as Cumbria and North Lancashire.

[damianslaw]

Just now, Frost HoIIow said:

Incredible differences in our region today. Not a spot of rain here but still pretty miserable and overcast....not even a tiny bit of blue sky. Looks like it'll be our turn for the rain tomorrow but not as severe as Cumbria and North Lancashire.

Like to know what causes fronts to become stuck in situ for so long over the Lake District and barely edge southward.. 

[Thunder Snow]

Very heavy rain currently and very breezy

[Barmada_Casten]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I doubt we will see the same rainfall totals as either of those events.. just that the synoptics are similar. Indeed such synoptics seem to be happening more and more often. 

In all fairness, I was actually only a few miles from Seathwaite in 2009 which was the location for the most amount of rainfall ever recorded in 24 hours in the UK until 2015. This event is reminding me very much if that. Where it was a case of ‘oh yeah we’re gonna get a lot of rain and it will flood to - hang on this is serious.’

If the rain co tiniest at this intensity until tomorrow evening and potentially, worst case scenario Friday afternoon - then this could be much, much worse. We are seeing significant flooding with another 24 hours if the same ahead of us.

it is surprising have blazè some people are being about this.

[Frost HoIIow]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Like to know what causes fronts to become stuck in situ for so long over the Lake District and barely edge southward.. 

This SW/SSW flow is like turning the taps on for you lot. Then you have the topography of high fells so this wind direction causes cloud formation & enhanced rainfall which is hard to clear eastwards - county Durham has been mostly dry compared to Cumbria. Similar in the western upslopes of Scotland I suspect when they have a westerly. Another notoriously wet zone.

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

This SW/SSW flow is like turning the taps on for you lot. Then you have the topography of high fells so this wind direction causes cloud formation & enhanced rainfall which is hard to clear eastwards - county Durham has been mostly dry compared to Cumbria. Similar in the western upslopes of Scotland I suspect when they have a westerly. Another notoriously wet zone.

Orographic uplift is the reason. Warm moist air rising over the fells and depositing the goods. Same situation happens in Snowdonia and West Highlands. Also there is no landmass to break any of the energy it funnels it's way through the Irish Sea and the Lake District is the first bit of land it hits.

Edited October 27, 2021 by damianslaw

[Barmada_Casten]

Rain seems to have increased in intensity here. The morning is going to be Interesting and not in a good way.

[Thunder Snow]

BBC latest weather seemed to have most of the heavy rain easing but late afternoon tomorrow.

 So hopefully not into friday?

[Barmada_Casten]

6 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

BBC latest weather seemed to have most of the heavy rain easing but late afternoon tomorrow.

 So hopefully not into friday?

Worst case scenario is it stops around tomorrow afternoon, which is essentially pretty much 36 hours of persistent moderate to heavy rainfall and will cause some damaging flooding.

The worst case scenario I envisage is the rain persisting beyond  tomorrow afternoon and into Friday which would turn this Into a ‘superevent’.

Another worrying thing to throw into the mix is that there is no significant period of dryness forecasted i the next few days timeframe.

[Barmada_Casten]

Looking at the radar It would appear the rain and intensity in the Irish Sea appears to have intensified. The next few hours are crucial. 

[Thunder Snow]

Thankfully the rain band has pushed further north and lost its intensity i think most of Cumbria has been spared

[Iceaxecrampon]

9 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

Have Derwent water and Buttermere joined up yet that used to be the first sign of trouble ! ? 

Such a contrast. River at Grange in Borrowdale was dry riverbed “rubble” in September. Walkable. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Hiley Website

WWW.LOWESWATERCAM.CO.UK

September seems a distant memory.

[Barmada_Casten]

The system has petered out and rain has all but ended here, which will give flooding and river levels a chance to subside quickly.

It is surprising how quickly kevels go down once the rain stops.

[A Face like Thunder]

A month's worth of rain in 24 hours according to this morning's radio news. Whitehaven the joint wettest place in the UK yesterday with 49mm of rain. Not a drop here in the south of the region although v cloudy and breezy this morning.

[Day 10]

Last chart of FI again, but gut feel is this isn't just pie in the sky this year.

Pretty sure the GFS kept pushing Greenland Heights early on in 2010, will this signal grow?

[Thunder Snow]

Rain has stopped but still breezy

[Barmada_Casten]

Oh blimey, I have just looked at the radar. A band if intense rainfall is on-course. 

[Thunder Snow]

 

[severe snowstorm]

On 28/10/2021 at 09:55, Day 10 said:

Last chart of FI again, but gut feel is this isn't just pie in the sky this year.

Pretty sure the GFS kept pushing Greenland Heights early on in 2010, will this signal grow?

I hope you're right. Another 2009/2010 type winter would be amazing. It's the hope that does for us every time!

[matty40s]

Over to the west.