North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Joe Bloggs]

06z GFS gives 10cm of snow here in total between Saturday and Thursday. 
 

Upgrades.. 

[frosty ground]

Gust of 40mph with snow over the weekend,

[Iceaxecrampon]

Fun probably starts Monday to be fair for the majority of the region E streamers piling over the hill  - how far they get over is another matter.

Reload from the SW Friday - not put it up as too far out at +201 - at least it will be on the cool side.

[cheshire snow]

9 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

06z GFS gives 10cm of snow here in total between Saturday and Thursday. 
 

Upgrades.. 

8cm here up until Thursday from 06GFS baring one day went temperature reaches 5c the cold spell extends to 17th February on the 06GFS

All coming together nicely 

C.S

[Snowmusic]

Meto app has just updated to give us here in Bolton non at all after Saturday. That seems a bit odd...

[jam2010]

1 minute ago, Snowmusic said:

Meto app has just updated to give us here in Bolton non at all after Saturday. That seems a bit odd...

Same here just cloud, I suppose they will be updated quite a bit in the next couple pf days.

[severe snowstorm]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the exact extent of the warnings at this range. They are creeping West which is encouraging and the precise positioning of troughs and features are not nailed on yet. Even if you are located slap bang in the middle of the warning, note the accompanying text that says some places will miss the showers so no guarantee even then. From where I'm standing, things seem to be slowly upgrading.

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, Had Worse said:

Been on MOD thread.

If you click the @northwestsnow it will bring up his profile and most recent posts.

I'm working

I'm confident of snow in an Easterly...

hopefully lots of the region will do well...

[Snowmusic]

1 minute ago, Dexter said:

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the exact extent of the warnings at this range. They are creeping West which is encouraging and the precise positioning of troughs and features are not nailed on yet. Even if you are located slap bang in the middle of the warning, note the accompanying text that says some places will miss the showers so no guarantee even then. From where I'm standing, things seem to be slowly upgrading.

Yep looking at the ecm and gfs snow charts I think we’ll be unlucky not to get any at all. We right on the edge of the yellow warning for Sunday 

[Frosty the Snowman]

11 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Fun probably starts Monday to be fair for the majority of the region E streamers piling over the hill  - how far they get over is another matter.

Reload from the SW Friday - not put it up as too far out at +201 - at least it will be on the cool side.

 

This feature keeps popping up shooting the precip right across the country out into the Irish Sea above Liverpool on various models, over the past few days. Presumably some sort of organised trough is shifting westwards to enable that. These areas probably want to keep a close eye on development of this feature, as should it come off you are looking at very significant snowfall.

 

I think the day it's actually shifted between Sun and Mon but beyond that it's been consistent across different runs. The areas between the red bars here seem highly likely to affected, Cumbria would be feeding off general easterly precipitation anyway, so I wouldn't worry about not being included in this. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Frosty the Snowman

[northwestsnow]

Furthermore I'm not posting in the model thread at the moment.

Its fast turning Into an IMBY frenzy.

Not for me.

[Frosty the Snowman]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Furthermore I'm not posting in the model thread at the moment.

Its fast turning Into an IMBY frenzy.

Not for me.

Judging by a few comments in other regional threads regarding this situation from moderators, it's a subject best avoided now we've had a collective spleen vent on it.

 

Let's focus on the weather!

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Furthermore I'm not posting in the model thread at the moment.

Its fast turning Into an IMBY frenzy.

Not for me.

A couple of us have had a message from @Paul about the NvS and imbyisms. Its come to a head and they are trying their best to tackle it subject to the speed of the postometer.

[snowdrifter]

23 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

 

This feature keeps popping up shooting the precip right across the country out into the Irish Sea above Liverpool on various models, over the past few days. Presumably some sort of organised trough is shifting westwards to enable that. These areas probably want to keep a close eye on development of this feature, as should it come off you are looking at very significant snowfall.

 

I think the day it's actually shifted between Sun and Mon but beyond that it's been consistent across different runs. The areas between the red bars here seem highly likely to affected, Cumbria would be feeding off general easterly precipitation anyway, so I wouldn't worry about not being included in this. 

Hope your'e right, I'll take that - bang in the middle of that...

[Manchester_Sunset]

I'm not getting hopeful much now 

 

[pip22]

I expecting the weather warning to extend west tommorow maybe.

[The Northern Ramper]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Furthermore I'm not posting in the model thread at the moment.

Its fast turning Into an IMBY frenzy.

Not for me.

100% agree

I read it twice a day but rarely post, it’s massively gone down hill compared to other years.

Even the standard of analysis has downgraded.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Manchester_Sunset said:

I'm not getting hopeful much now 

 

Any snow for the north west will be convective in nature imo.

[Manchester_Sunset]

There is this one tho

[Troubleatmill]

5 minutes ago, snowdrifter said:

Hope your'e right, I'll take that - bang in the middle of that...

I have known in years gone by that if we get a straight easterly the showers can get through the Pennines, NE wind no chance. We will see hey mate. If we see them; this far west then Blackburn, Burnley, Colne ect are in for a treat!

[Interitus]

3 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

Indeed

And on the basis of 40 years local knowledge of the area and a very unstable Easterly flow i would like to up my prediction but will stay within the rules of the game the myth of this area been bad for snow from the east was put to bed long before the Beast of 2018 people in this thread looking at PPN charts and taking as gospel then more fool you I am not ramping this up and if I am wrong then so be it I will hold my hands up and take it on the chin.

Transition day is Saturday then we are locked in to cold spell also breakdown is delayed again on this morning charts so could well be still in this cold spell into the next weekend as well.

Enjoy your snow its on its way.

C.S

 

Most of the North west typically gets naff all from an easterly, BFTE was no different. Sure, maybe a few cm here and there, and if that floats your boat then fair enough, but it's not the foot plus that some charts are touting for eg the eastern side of the Pennines or East Anglia.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Paul

[snowdrifter]

9 minutes ago, Beano said:

I have known in years gone by that if we get a straight easterly the showers can get through the Pennines, NE wind no chance. We will see hey mate. If we see them; this far west then Blackburn, Burnley, Colne ect are in for a treat!

Absolutely - my lad lives in nr Blackburn - I've told him to get the snow shovel ready...

[Joe Bloggs]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Any snow for the north west will be convective in nature imo.

Fully agree. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

23 minutes ago, Manchester_Sunset said:

I'm not getting hopeful much now 

 

Sunday just the start.

[chris78]

1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Most of the North west typically gets naff all from an easterly, BFTE was no different. Sure, maybe a few cm here and there, and if that floats your boat then fair enough, but it's not the foot plus that some charts are touting for eg the eastern side of the Pennines or East Anglia.

For some in the region easterlies are great.   Now for me out on the West a big fall is incredibly unlikely, so for anyone living in those areas your get real comment would apply to every single snow forecast ever made/   i think lots of us here look at others in the N.West predicting ONLY 8cm of snow with disappointment and think...you dont know your born!  

Edited February 4, 2021 by Paul