North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[dodge]

For once we haven't got a shield/dome/shadow from precipitation coming up from the South West...if anything it's getting a little kick as it comes up to higher ground north and north east of Manchester.  Nothing of deluge proportions but just enough to laugh in your face for even considering doing anything meaningful outdoors.

Edited October 24, 2021 by dodge

[iand61]

56 minutes ago, dodge said:

For once we haven't got a shield/dome/shadow from precipitation coming up from the South West...if anything it's getting a little kick as it comes up to higher ground north and north east of Manchester.  Nothing of deluge proportions but just enough to laugh in your face for even considering doing anything meaningful outdoors.

Yeah more annoyance value here than anything else.

[severe snowstorm]

In contrast, a largely dry day here so far, mostly cloudy, but all the showers are being eaten up by the Welsh Mountains as they move up from the SW. Another breezy day.

[A Face like Thunder]

However, across Cheshire, we had showery rain for much of the morning, giving way to partly cloudy, partly blue skies this afternoon, with a bit of a breeze to temper the temperatures. 

[severe snowstorm]

After dodging all the showers most of today, finally had the briefest of heavy showers about 30 mins ago but was a blink and you miss it type affair. It has turned out to be two very useable days for outdoor activities here this weekend. Looks like we have fared better than other parts of the region today.

[iand61]

You certainly did better than here, a dry few hours through the afternoon but a pretty wet morning and a few heavy showers since it started to go dark.

TBH. and given Saturdays forecast for today, I expected better but I suppose it’s only to be expected given the time of year.

 

[damianslaw]

An unpleasant week ahead for Lake District. Mid-week looking very wet and very mild, moisture leaden SW airstream.. frontal system becoming unstuck. These are the type of synoptics that result in flooding, similiar to Nov 2019 and Dec 2015... thankfully the ground is not as saturated as then, and the forecasted amounts won't reach those levels.

Looking forward to the weekend, and seeing thre trough finally kicked eastwards!

[HafrenLMP1]

Wasn't overly impressed with the Countryfile forecast; this week looks to be mild/ very mild. As if that's a good thing, when it brings rain & wind I'm not sure it is. Give me cold & dry.

[damianslaw]

Just now, HafrenLMP1 said:

Wasn't overly impressed with the Countryfile forecast; this week looks to be mild/ very mild. As if that's a good thing, when it brings rain & wind I'm not sure it is. Give me cold & dry.

Last week of October is I suspect statistically more likely to be very unsettled and consequently wet than settled and dry.. and also mild or very mild. Always remember many a October half term sat inside looking out at the rain, far more so than the Feb half term.

[severe snowstorm]

On 24/10/2021 at 23:11, damianslaw said:

Last week of October is I suspect statistically more likely to be very unsettled and consequently wet than settled and dry.. and also mild or very mild. Always remember many a October half term sat inside looking out at the rain, far more so than the Feb half term.

Yes, I can relate to this. Back in the 80s/90s, we had a period of going to the Lakes for October half term for walking holidays, but stopped doing this as it usually ended up wet most days. This week certainly looks to be true to form again.

[A Face like Thunder]

Looks like a settled couple of days here in the south of the Region, although having said that, we've just had the briefest of showers! 

[A Face like Thunder]

13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

An unpleasant week ahead for Lake District. Mid-week looking very wet and very mild, moisture leaden SW airstream.. frontal system becoming unstuck. These are the type of synoptics that result in flooding, similiar to Nov 2019 and Dec 2015... thankfully the ground is not as saturated as then, and the forecasted amounts won't reach those levels.

Looking forward to the weekend, and seeing thre trough finally kicked eastwards!

Yellow weather warning now issued for rainfall in the NW on Wednesday through to Thursday. I suspect the Lake District will be in the firing line, which would be a pity in half term week, but as suggested, not unusual for this time of the year.

[Had Worse]

Training maybe?

[Frost HoIIow]

Not to be taken seriously of course but....

[Had Worse]

Extra layers at the ready. 

Cold and wet for bonfires if it comes off.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Had Worse

[Thunder Snow]

Going to be very wet across Cumbria Wednesday and Thursday 

[Frost HoIIow]

16 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Going to be very wet across Cumbria Wednesday and Thursday 

It is needed though. Reservoir levels are still well below normal at Haweswater & Thirlmere. If we get a dry winter and spring some areas could be in trouble. Sunday's readings should be available tomorrow or Weds on United Utilities webpage so it might have increased a bit but can't see it being a lot different to last weeks. Still some much needed rain on the way though.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

It is needed though. Reservoir levels are still well below normal at Haweswater & Thirlmere. If we get a dry winter and spring some areas could be in trouble. Sunday's readings should be available tomorrow or Weds on United Utilities webpage so it might have increased a bit but can't see it being a lot different to last weeks. Still some much needed rain on the way though.

Yes will help.. but would prefer the amounts forecast to be spaced out over say 2 weeks at least, not 2 days! 200m plus for the fells can only mean one thing.. flooding.

These synoptics delivered the floods of Nov 09 and Dec 15. A miserable spell ahead. 

Edited October 25, 2021 by damianslaw

[Had Worse]

DL, I think you meant 200mm of rain.

I think 200m would completely change the look of the UK and Noah would be rather busy.

[A Face like Thunder]

Amidst the tears of Corrie last night, I was amused by nerdy Sam's reference to '125mm of rain falling on Weatherfield last Wednesday  night,  beating the previous record of 102mm by a clear margin'. The scriptwriters had obviously been looking at this website! 

[severe snowstorm]

An overcast start to the day, but looks like the bulk of the rain has cleared through overnight here which is a positive as I was expecting a wet morning. We may see the odd pocket of drizzle during the remainder of today, but I doubt anything of note so not a bad day ahead considering the forecast yesterday. Tomorrow onwards looks like a different prospect though.

[Day 10]

Very interesting GFS & ECM this morning mid to longer term.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Had Worse said:

DL, I think you meant 200mm of rain.

I think 200m would completely change the look of the UK and Noah would be rather busy.

Sometimes looks like 200m! A thoroughly wet period ahead.. it's raining now and hardly any let up forecast for rest of the week. Poor time to he on a half term break in the Lakes.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

Very interesting GFS & ECM this morning mid to longer term.

Hopefully longer drier sunnier periods than what we have now.

[The Northern Ramper]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Sometimes looks like 200m! A thoroughly wet period ahead.. it's raining now and hardly any let up forecast for rest of the week. Poor time to he on a half term break in the Lakes.

Delivering tomorrow all day in the Lakes