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North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl

Lovely day again… blue skies warm sunshine ☀️ 

after errands in Denton and Hyde… washed the car, made carrot ginger and lemongrass soup… was delicious and ate outside which was a bonus… chilly evening now… 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Heard this fly over just now. Pretty loud considering it was a good few miles to the west. Looks like it took off from a carrier in the North Sea.

Screenshot_20210920-233404.thumb.png.c6eb6797e7454eab143fbb50f027abc2.pngScreenshot_20210920-233327.thumb.png.6e6ccc15b6c3a53efa5c8832c0d93106.png

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
11 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Heard this fly over just now. Pretty loud considering it was a good few miles to the west. Looks like it took off from a carrier in the North Sea.

Screenshot_20210920-233404.thumb.png.c6eb6797e7454eab143fbb50f027abc2.pngScreenshot_20210920-233327.thumb.png.6e6ccc15b6c3a53efa5c8832c0d93106.png

I don't think they are capable of launching from a carrier. Looks like they switched the transponder on where the blue line starts. The tell tale sign of where the aircraft departed is shown by the trail line changing colour. Usually yellow to green to turquoise and various shades of blue and purple as it gains height and the reverse when coming into land. 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Got this email today from United Utilities about the drought. Watch this October will be the wettest on record.

Screenshot_20210921-145717.thumb.png.dedc0188efc33adf7b096c132c9bbd9b.pngScreenshot_20210921-145727.thumb.png.43258319363e000d4d252383e5d003e0.pngScreenshot_20210921-145736.thumb.png.6be56f933bac46a798eb04fe15af6359.png

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

This caught my eye today.

89759668_Screenshot2021-09-21at15-24-08CrosbyWaterTemperatureUnitedKingdomSeaTemperatures.thumb.png.21292e04ccbac73924ce56a939e0f773.png

Could be nothing but I'll be keeping an eye on it as we lead upto Winter.

Well below average and always a big factor for snow chances living here by the coast.

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

This caught my eye today.

89759668_Screenshot2021-09-21at15-24-08CrosbyWaterTemperatureUnitedKingdomSeaTemperatures.thumb.png.21292e04ccbac73924ce56a939e0f773.png

Could be nothing but I'll be keeping an eye on it as we lead upto Winter.

Well below average and always a big factor for snow chances living here by the coast.

I am cautiously optimistic about this Winter. And even a bit further into Autumn too. There's some very odd weather patterns at present.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
On 21/09/2021 at 17:12, Frost HoIIow said:

I am cautiously optimistic about this Winter. And even a bit further into Autumn too. There's some very odd weather patterns at present.

Completely agree mate.

I've been having a look at the solar cycle last 20 years, last time we had a very similar spotless pattern over about a 5 year period was the lead up to Dec 2010.

Obviously many other factors but as ever very interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Completely agree mate.

I've been having a look at the solar cycle last 20 years, last time we had a very similar spotless pattern over about a 5 year period was the lead up to Dec 2010.

Obviously many other factors but as ever very interesting.

It's interesting to note that both 1947 and 1979 were very close to sunspot max?

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

It's interesting to note that both 1947 and 1979 were very close to sunspot max?

Clearly there was other factors (known or unknown) at play. And it was a generally colder world back then at the poles especially in the former so probably a better chance of relying on other favourables at the solar max? 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Clearly there was other factors (known or unknown) at play. And it was a generally colder world back then at the poles especially in the former so probably a better chance of relying on other favourables at the solar max? 

Wake me up when it snows!

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
On 15/09/2021 at 22:29, Had Worse said:

16 goals?

22 goals now ??

we were playing my birth place high Wycombe I’ve never been there apart from being born there… 41 years ago… 

lovely sunset over Manchester very pretty this evening 

hoping for more of the powdery white snow this winter… we never really had more than 4-5” at any one time but it was persistent 

Edited by WillinGlossop
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
3 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Completely agree mate.

I've been having a look at the solar cycle last 20 years, last time we had a very similar spotless pattern over about a 5 year period was the lead up to Dec 2010.

Obviously many other factors but as ever very interesting.

Many similarities with 2010 this year I feel, solar cycle being one..

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
4 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Completely agree mate.

I've been having a look at the solar cycle last 20 years, last time we had a very similar spotless pattern over about a 5 year period was the lead up to Dec 2010.

Obviously many other factors but as ever very interesting.

Lol we get earlier every year...

Go back 2 pages

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Definitely something going on. 1065mb Greenland high not to be shiffed at. Late in the run the Azores takes a holiday and cold gradually creeping into Europe from the NE. If only it was a month further down the line and we'd have some brutal uppers!

gfs-0-336.png?18gfs-0-384.png?18gfs-1-384.png?18

This is an interesting one with the original Russian high becoming a bit of a monster extending west.

gfs-0-324.png?18

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

First raised the possibility of a 2010/2011 style winter with Summer Blizzard back in the summer. He wasn't keen on the analogue.

There were some mumblings a few years back about winter 10/11 being a hangover from the 2009/2010 SSW. I think if we have similar pattern to start the coming winter then we may have to look at the two SSWs (the one in winter 09/10 and the one last winter) to see if there are any similarities. Could possibly be one reason for cold winter clustering.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
On 21/09/2021 at 19:23, Day 10 said:

Completely agree mate.

I've been having a look at the solar cycle last 20 years, last time we had a very similar spotless pattern over about a 5 year period was the lead up to Dec 2010.

Obviously many other factors but as ever very interesting.

Here's that pattern @Frost HoIIow

1240082668_Screenshot2021-09-22at09-39-03SolarCycleprogressionSolaractivity.thumb.png.2fc2f1b0d816575b3fe46ad7ed5d2cf7.png1128327405_Screenshot2021-09-22at09-39-19SolarCycleprogressionSolaractivity.thumb.png.ddfe85ab6d118a38e2c3438df77ccdf6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
On 22/09/2021 at 00:02, cheshire snow said:

Lol we get earlier every year...

Go back 2 pages

I was just casually browsing the summer output until you piped up with the vortex, now I've switched to Winter mode in September because of you! ❄️❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
33 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I was just casually browsing the summer output until you piped up with the vortex, now I've switched to Winter mode in September because of you! ❄️❄️

Sorry  let's hope for  ❄ 

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

Sorry  let's hope for  ❄ 

Some will need to hope for snow ❄ more than others. @Kasim Awan doesn't need to hope much and @WillinGlossop less than me. You will need the most.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
1 hour ago, Had Worse said:

Some will need to hope for snow ❄ more than others. @Kasim Awan doesn't need to hope much and @WillinGlossop less than me. You will need the most.

Well yes they both live in the highest part of the region so goes without saying really for me its the excitement a cold spell may bring.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Not a bad day today a fresh breeze but in the sun still pleasant enough and still a bit of a kick to it around lunchtime, the sun doesn't become properly weak until October really. Met Office text forecast says some rain tonight but I doubt it, possibly some at weekend but we've been here before and zilch.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
19 hours ago, CreweCold said:

First raised the possibility of a 2010/2011 style winter with Summer Blizzard back in the summer. He wasn't keen on the analogue.

There were some mumblings a few years back about winter 10/11 being a hangover from the 2009/2010 SSW. I think if we have similar pattern to start the coming winter then we may have to look at the two SSWs (the one in winter 09/10 and the one last winter) to see if there are any similarities. Could possibly be one reason for cold winter clustering.

Yes winter talk in September, why not, its the autumn equinox today.. beats talking about the non-descript weather we have now any way..

I think the SSW this year was more akin to 2013 one, both happened in January, and there was a cold spell (Jan 2013) early Feb this year, which both whimpered out, but the cold came back - notably so in March 2013, and again in April this year but not quite the same depth, but it was signficantly colder than normal. I don't fancy a winter 13-14, worse winter of the last 30 years, worse than the incredible mild of 15-16, at least it became somewhat colder as that winter wore on, 13-14 one just one storm after another and not a glimmer of any cold weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes winter talk in September, why not, its the autumn equinox today.. beats talking about the non-descript weather we have now any way..

I think the SSW this year was more akin to 2013 one, both happened in January, and there was a cold spell (Jan 2013) early Feb this year, which both whimpered out, but the cold came back - notably so in March 2013, and again in April this year but not quite the same depth, but it was signficantly colder than normal. I don't fancy a winter 13-14, worse winter of the last 30 years, worse than the incredible mild of 15-16, at least it became somewhat colder as that winter wore on, 13-14 one just one storm after another and not a glimmer of any cold weather.

Nothing will ever be worse than that November-December 2015. I still haven’t fully got over it. Mind bendingly mild, incredibly wet and not even a glimmer of sunshine. The worst weather I’ve ever lived through. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
On 22/09/2021 at 20:21, damianslaw said:

Yes winter talk in September, why not, its the autumn equinox today.. beats talking about the non-descript weather we have now any way..

I think the SSW this year was more akin to 2013 one, both happened in January, and there was a cold spell (Jan 2013) early Feb this year, which both whimpered out, but the cold came back - notably so in March 2013, and again in April this year but not quite the same depth, but it was signficantly colder than normal. I don't fancy a winter 13-14, worse winter of the last 30 years, worse than the incredible mild of 15-16, at least it became somewhat colder as that winter wore on, 13-14 one just one storm after another and not a glimmer of any cold weather.

Yes winter 2013/14 and also 2019/20 were probably the worst of the last decade. Mild winters like 2015/16 gave some snow in mid Jan as well as a snowy March day I can vividly remember. 

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