North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[severe snowstorm]

9 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

GFS has 3 hrs breakdown frontal snow from 3pm onward Saturday.

Thats it.

To be fair we have a few pipes perilously close to freezing up here and they're  ready for a bit of a warm up.

Easterly? forget it paltry snizzle snizzle and more snizzle -  as for the Winter  - decent Hoar frosts on the local fields and marsh but Alpine conditions in all the favoured Cumbrian areas -  lockdown?  - whats not to miss?

Maybe next year.

Yeah, it certainly seems that everything has to be just right for an Easterly to deliver for Western of parts of the region, and that never came together as hoped in this event. I have really enjoyed the dry frosty mornings though, and will miss this next week when we have day after day of rain lashing against the window, but hey, at least it will be mild....

I'm sure February and March are the snowiest months of the year so winter isn't over by a long chalk. Energy for convection is increasing all the time now, so whilst any snow that does accumulate will hang around for less time, we could start to see some impressive daytime snow showers if the conditions are right.

 

 

[Troubleatmill]

1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

GFS has 3 hrs breakdown frontal snow from 3pm onward Saturday.

Thats it.

To be fair we have a few pipes perilously close to freezing up here and they're  ready for a bit of a warm up.

Easterly? forget it paltry snizzle snizzle and more snizzle -  as for the Winter  - decent Hoar frosts on the local fields and marsh but Alpine conditions in all the favoured Cumbrian areas -  lockdown?  - whats not to miss?

Maybe next year.

Yeah managed one walk from Hartsop to Thornthwaite crag and High street before Xmas and that's been it this winter...really missing it and not getting any younger

Edited February 12, 2021 by Beano

[Iceaxecrampon]

5 minutes ago, Beano said:

Yeah managed one walk from Hartsop to Thornthwaite crag and High street before Xmas and that's been it this winter...really missing it and not getting any younger

Looks well gnarly - good effort. Cold making your mobile freeze? - mine usually packs up after a few minutes so I don't rely on any GPS I'm old school map and compass.

Starting to creak as well? - yes a season missed  - time waits for no man.

 

[russwirral]

an air of upgrade to the models this morning for some snow tomorrow, certainly for the south of the region.

The models have had a habit of getting extents wrong recently, could there be some surprises tomorrow?

[Iceaxecrampon]

11 minutes ago, russwirral said:

an air of upgrade to the models this morning for some snow tomorrow, certainly for the south of the region.

The models have had a habit of getting extents wrong recently, could there be some surprises tomorrow?

06z has GFS downgrade for Sat.

[damianslaw]

Rain radar shows an odd yellow pixel in the Irish Sea gone nowhere for 2 hours..

Yes quite often cold spells have fizzled out with little aplomb. Usually a gradual mixing of the cold uppers that take time to infiltrate to low surface. This is about to happen this weekend, the air is very dry and forecast to squeeze the life out of the frontal event, hence it is breaking up but at the same time thicknesses and uppers are increasing ahead of it, by the time the second front of Sunday arrives there will only be a small thin layer of relative cold at the surface, and hence rain will fall rather than snow.

Still hopefully for a bit of snow to fall later afternoon, a bonus would be a light cover, we are not far off a fair cover but things not aligning well. Will be a nowcast as ever, always chance for an upgrade on the day..

[Chris.R]

Not as cold as expected last night, minimum was -1.4°C but was a bit above -1 after midnight. Currently 1.2°C and rising.

[Chris.R]

Don’t know what to make of WRF. It doesn’t show any precip making it Saturday or Sunday until the end of the run at 0Z Monday. Think I’ll just nowcast.

[raul_sbd]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Don’t know what to make of WRF. It doesn’t show any precip making it Saturday or Sunday until the end of the run at 0Z Monday. Think I’ll just nowcast.

Probably then the fronts will not reach our shores Chris.. oh well, chasing the next one perhaps back end of the month. Hopefully at least dry and sunny next week after initial rain..

[Rain Lady]

1 hour ago, Dexter said:

Yeah, it certainly seems that everything has to be just right for an Easterly to deliver for Western of parts of the region, and that never came together as hoped in this event. I have really enjoyed the dry frosty mornings though, and will miss this next week when we have day after day of rain lashing against the window, but hey, at least it will be mild....

I'm sure February and March are the snowiest months of the year so winter isn't over by a long chalk. Energy for convection is increasing all the time now, so whilst any snow that does accumulate will hang around for less time, we could start to see some impressive daytime snow showers if the conditions are right.

 

 

March always the most likely month for snow up here.  Another 6 weeks of winter potential.  One of the heaviest "spring" falls , albeit lasting only a day in the warm sunshine, was April 1st 1966.   Drifts which developed overnight were half way up the kitchen window.  Trees and bushes were weighed down.

 

[Rain Lady]

Apparently this thing is currently getting itself wound up in the Atlantic.   Those of us clingiing on in the western fringes had better get wellies ready.

 

[russwirral]

25 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

06z has GFS downgrade for Sat.

whereas the BBC have upgraded their forecast, was 3 hrs of snow before, now over 6 hrs...  As Chris says - Nowcasting (is that what this winter will be known for)

[Troubleatmill]

46 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Looks well gnarly - good effort. Cold making your mobile freeze? - mine usually packs up after a few minutes so I don't rely on any GPS I'm old school map and compass.

Starting to creak as well? - yes a season missed  - time waits for no man.

 

Me too! Never rely on GPS, do have it as I believe you can't have too much, compass only let me down once at ore gap on Bowfell spinning like I was at North pole . yep knees are bit knackered, but still got it in us hey! Who knows Borris might let us out before this season is done and we can enjoy some.

For where we live, pffft can't be many places worse! 

[Troubleatmill]

18 minutes ago, Rain Lady said:

March always the most likely month for snow up here.  Another 6 weeks of winter potential.  One of the heaviest "spring" falls , albeit lasting only a day in the warm sunshine, was April 1st 1966.   Drifts which developed overnight were half way up the kitchen window.  Trees and bushes were weighed down.

 

Sounds amazing!! In some ways it makes sense why March is the most likely month doesn't it, the Irish sea is at at its coldest & the polar vortex starts to breakup (hopefully). Just a shame the sun has more strength so it's hard to stick around.

[The Northern Ramper]

The warmer sun is often slated in Spring as it melts the snow faster however it also aids those beefy snow showers to develop over that cold Irish Sea.

[Geordiesnow]

Cant see much snow tomorrow, even if the radar shows precipitation, I suspect most will evaporate before it touches the ground.

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Beano said:

Me too! Never rely on GPS, do have it as I believe you can't have too much, compass only let me down once at ore gap on Bowfell spinning like I was at North pole . yep knees are bit knackered, but still got it in us hey! Who knows Borris might let us out before this season is done and we can enjoy some.

For where we live, pffft can't be many places worse! 

"Iron" Ore gap.

That's probably why

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Just got in from the usual Terrier drag  - bit of a breeze got up and it's interesting windchill  - the letterbox is flapping so I know it's a S Easterly.

BBC has snow for 15:00 tomorrow - blink and miss it.

[damianslaw]

Might see a snowflake at 3pm tonorrow according to BBC! 

[Snow free zone]

4 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Time to dust off the deckchairs .

Our boiler has already decided its had enough, second day running I've had to defrost the thing, and it's one of those new fangled condensing boilers, the ones that never freeze up. Going to move the outlet pipe as its exposed to the E wind, that's where the problem is. 

[Joe Snow]

Sunny but very cold out today a lovely winters day 1c currently. Tomorrow a possible ice day quite widely and will feel really raw in the wind with the cloud cover. Much milder next week but for how long can’t help but think Winter may have a sting in its tail this year   

[Rain Lady]

NW forecast has suddenly found us a bit of snow for the rest of the day.  It is going more cloudy looking east.  Pressure rising still.  Is the cold Siberian slab hanging on.

 

 

7 hours ago, Wiggi001 said:

For those who missed sun up and it's another cool dry day!

 

[Rain Lady]

Too bitter cold to think.  Posted last comment in wrong place  --

NW forecast has suddenly found us a bit of snow for the rest of the day.  It is going more cloudy looking east.  Pressure rising still.  Is the cold Siberian slab hanging on.

Also, most of the day there's been a lot of blue coloured air pollution looking SE.  

[swainclubber]

Few flakes of snow blowing around here. Bit of action to the east 

[Helm wind]

Looks very much like this unexpected precipitation is going to split whilst drifting north and miss us. Pretty much sums up this winter! Can't believe we've been so close so many times, yet missed all of it this winter.