North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[severe snowstorm]

23 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I saw that but that only begs the question for me, why was the warning cancelled or not updated?

 

Perhaps the likelihood is not considered that great at this stage, but if freezing rain is still in the forecast for Sunday in tomorrow morning's update, I'd be surprised if an ice warning isn't issued tomorrow.

[Spah1]

What's the ECM up to ????

Hhhhhhmmmmm.

[Frost HoIIow]

As Ian says it's not been a poor winter. The previous two were certainly that it's just there's been so much potential with the deep cold air but it has delivered just light coverings across the majority of the region. I guess I shouldn't complain as there's parts of the UK that haven't even had a covering of snow all winter. Maybe even 3 years.

[itsnowjoke]

Think I might come back in summer if we have one

[cheshire snow]

This is the result of freezing rain taken in the USA many fatalities according to recent reports has to be the worst kind of weather

 

C.S

[The Northern Ramper]

44 minutes ago, iand61 said:

It used to happen every winter though, just like heavy snow from an easterly was pretty much guaranteed around here.

What was different back then I don’t know but the region hasn’t moved and the Pennines are still in the same place so it must be a warming climate or just years of continuous bad luck.

We went through years of crap in the 90’s, 00’s as well though and we still managed a 2009,10,13,18 after these years of crap. 
If we look at other decades there’s only 2 or 3 winters from each that stand out.

Yes we did crap from this easterly in comparison to 91,96,13,18etc but we’ve got many winters left of the 20’s

[Frosty the Snowman]

Bloody hell. Quiet in here. 

 

We all given up on Sat/Sun then? 

[Day 10]

Evening guys,

Well were to start with this disaster of a Winter!

I'll get this up and coming letdown of a weekend out of the way first, I'm glad this time I didn't take any potential disruptive heavy snowy breakdown seriously it has never looked on to me. After numerous day 5 charts showing Narnia for this region and then getting watered down every single time then I just wasn't getting sucked in again and in all honesty, 80% infact no as I live on the Wirral 100% of the time it's just always pure hope anyway.

Head screwed on, snow tinted goggles off - this weekend looks poor.

Breakdown? what breakdown?

Saturday 3pm - UKV

A weakish front comes in up against the very cold block to the east maybe giving some half decent falls to Ireland, Wales & maybe Southwestern parts of England before pulling apart and fragmenting before reaching here. Cold, windy & cloudy sounds about right to me, bloody crap!

 

Sunday 3pm - UKV & ECM

Another front comes in from the west this time with a bit more oomph to it and some mild air aloft, still very cold at the surface so the possibility as some may have already mentioned, not a lovely blizzard like snowy breakdown but the extremely hazardous and and quite rare freezing rain! Lovely - NOT!!!

 

So for me I think I'm going to take a break from the forum and get back to my family.

This isn't the end of Winter as I think there may well be one more shot of freezing cold weather to come, I do not think that block is going anywhere fast and I think the weekend and maybe a few days after that is just a milder/less cold blip.

With charts like this from the UKMO & ECM in the medium term I think those who STILL have not seen any lying snowfall and those greedy buggers who just want more , then I all think we have one more spell to come. Winds from the East & then from the North before Spring?

UKMO & ECM

It's been a real blast in here this Winter I've loved every minute of it, I'll be keeping an eye on the charts in the backround and if something of interest starts to show up I'll come back but for now I'm off as I'm totally model/chart/MetO warning knackered!

Stay safe & be careful if you get caught in that freezing rain (pretty sure the Wirral will miss it, the BBQ will probably be out).

 

 

 

[johnwirral]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

What's the ECM up to ????

Hhhhhhmmmmm.

May be a chance for the SW of the region on Saturday 

[Spah1]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Evening guys,

Well were to start with this disaster of a Winter!

I'll get this up and coming letdown of a weekend out of the way first, I'm glad this time I didn't take any potential disruptive heavy snowy breakdown seriously it has never looked on to me. After numerous day 5 charts showing Narnia for this region and then getting watered down every single time then I just wasn't getting sucked in again and in all honesty, 80% infact no as I live on the Wirral 100% of the time it's just always pure hope anyway.

Head screwed on, snow tinted goggles off - this weekend looks poor.

Breakdown? what breakdown?

Saturday 3pm - UKV

A weakish front comes in up against the very cold block to the east maybe giving some half decent falls to Ireland, Wales & maybe Southwestern parts of England before pulling apart and fragmenting before reaching here. Cold, windy & cloudy sounds about right to me, bloody crap!

 

Sunday 3pm - UKV & ECM

Another front comes in from the west this time with a bit more oomph to it and some mild air aloft, still very cold at the surface so the possibility as some may have already mentioned, not a lovely blizzard like snowy breakdown but the extremely hazardous and and quite rare freezing rain! Lovely - NOT!!!

 

So for me I think I'm going to take a break from the forum and get back to my family.

This isn't the end of Winter as I think there may well be one more shot of freezing cold weather to come, I do not think that block is going anywhere fast and I think the weekend and maybe a few days after that is just a milder/less cold blip.

With charts like this from the UKMO & ECM in the medium term I think those who STILL have not seen any lying snowfall and those greedy buggers who just want more , then I all think we have one more spell to come. Winds from the East & then from the North before Spring?

UKMO & ECM

It's been a real blast in here this Winter I've loved every minute of it, I'll be keeping an eye on the charts in the backround and if something of interest starts to show up I'll come back but for now I'm off as I'm totally model/chart/MetO warning knackered!

Stay safe & be careful if you get caught in that freezing rain (pretty sure the Wirral will miss it, the BBQ will probably be out).

 

 

 

Couldn’t agree more. From 29th Dec to Sunday there has been interest. I’ve had 2/3cm from showers and found the most amazing place to take the kids sledging (Clough Head, Rossendale) where we sledged on New Years Eve in 3/4 inch snow. I’m a bit fatigued also. The Mrs is always having a go at me in Winter for never having my phone out of my hand. Let’s see where we are in 7 days. Maybe more northern blocking? Until then I’d better back to doing the DIY I’ve put off. 

[severe snowstorm]

Freezing rain is fairly rare in this country thankfully. Some of the ice storms they have in the NE USA are insane and a fairly regular occurrence. I'm actually trying to remember the last significant freezing rain event I witnessed and I think I have to go back as far as the mid 90s when I lived in the Midlands. I think it was New Year's Eve 95, but could have been 96. I don't think I've witnessed a freezing rain event on that scale since.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

Couldn’t agree more. From 29th Dec to Sunday there has been interest. I’ve had 2/3cm from showers and found the most amazing place to take the kids sledging (Clough Head, Rossendale) where we sledged on New Years Eve in 3/4 inch snow. I’m a bit fatigued also. The Mrs is always having a go at me in Winter for never having my phone out of my hand. Let’s see where we are in 7 days. Maybe more northern blocking? Until then I’d better back to doing the DIY I’ve put off. 

Yes I'm glued rather too much I feel to the radar and this forum between late November and roughly early March when interest begins to wane somewhat. This year more than ever I've been glued.. last year I took a month off in February because the models and charts were very depressing viewing with weeks of rain and wind. Thank goodness there has been much more variety this year, and the balance swayed against the atlantic winning the battle. Mind had we had last winter this winter, then many hours would have been freed up doing something else I imagine.. not that there is anything wrong with spending time in this forum.

 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Dexter said:

Freezing rain is fairly rare in this country thankfully. Some of the ice storms they have in the NE USA are insane and a fairly regular occurrence. I'm actually trying to remember the last significant freezing rain event I witnessed and I think I have to go back as far as the mid 90s when I lived in the Midlands. I think it was New Year's Eve 95, but could have been 96. I don't think I've witnessed a freezing rain event on that scale since.

We had a bout of freezing rain in February 2012 I think or was it 2013, no I think it was 2012 after a number of cold days following a decent snowfall on the 4th. First half of Feb 12 often not mentioned, it was very cold.

[Had Worse]

Sorry chaps, not been on much today. Had a shower failure this morning.

One of those cartridge types which screws to a back plate. Three of the four screw pots had sheared, these being the ones that kept the cartidge in place. Water pi55ing out in all directions and no money to repair it.

[HafrenLMP1]

Was out on the bike today for a 20 miler; and almost the perfect winter riding conditions - cold, and mainly clear blue skies;  the strong bitter wind from the east was the only annoyance. I'd much rather these type of days than the normal endless dross of wind & rain from Nov - March. 

My only real moan is the lack of snow; it seems nowadays, our area needs the absolutely perfect set up to deliver a proper fall; Feb/March 2018 was the last one. A number of light dustings are pretty pathetic. 

We're getting to that time of year when if we get any snow, I feel it's all 'too little too late'. Where are you when we have dark mornings & evenings? 

[damianslaw]

BBC apps confusing again, the UK forecast map shows band of snow Irish Sea 3pm Saturday into SW Scotland by 6pm well it just vanishes into thin air.. odd.. checked the keswick app forecast heavy snow showers all afternoon, here bone dry...another nowcast situation I feel..

Edited February 11, 2021 by damianslaw

[NickyB]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

BBC apps confusing again, the UK forecast map shows band of snow Irish Sea 3pm Saturday into SW Scotland by 6pm well it just vanishes into thin air.. odd.. checked the keswick app forecast heavy snow showers all afternoon, here bone dry...another nowcast situation I feel..

Not just the BBC app - my chance of ‘snow grains’ increased for Saturday. 

[Frost HoIIow]

11C on Tuesday will feel balmy compared to the bone chillingly cold winds we've got at the moment with the met office going for -10C wind chill on Saturday morning. How the long the mildness lasts who knows but I wouldn't bet against the cold surging back for another go late in the month and onwards.

It's often the case after a sudden stratospheric warming to see a cold spell into March too. I don't really see March as a proper spring month anyway. Meteorologically it is but it's very rarely a warm month at the best of times. Often the heating is still needed, the trees are still bare throughout. The only give away that warm days lie close ahead is the increasing daylight. For me April is when spring properly kicks in. 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[iand61]

5 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

11C on Tuesday will feel balmy compared to the bone chillingly cold winds we've got at the moment with the met office going for -10C wind chill on Saturday morning. How the long the mildness lasts who knows but I wouldn't bet against the cold surging back for another go late in the month and onwards.

It's often the case after a sudden stratospheric warming to see a cold spell into March too. I don't really see March as a proper spring month anyway. Meteorologically it is but it's very rarely a warm month at the best of times. Often the heating is still needed, the trees are still bare throughout. The only give away that warm days lie close ahead is the increasing daylight. For me April is when spring properly kicks in. 

I hope it’s a repeat of April 2020 but without the full lockdown restrictions.

 

[severe snowstorm]

The metoffice are forecasting the risk of the odd snow flurry tomorrow afternoon and still going for outbreaks of rain, snow and possible freezing rain on Sunday. Then, milder and at times wet and windy during next week. The extended outlook mentions the potential for cold weather to re-establish from 20th February. Too far away yet to know whether this will happen, but encouraging nonetheless. Would be great to squeeze out another significant cold spell before winter ends. In the meantime, back to our old friend the Atlantic.

[Wiggi001]

For those who missed sun up and it's another cool dry day!

[Weather-history]

The fact is a lot of  cold spells don't end with a snowy breakdown.

For instance 25 years ago after the great snow of 5th/6th February 1996, the low following Friday just barged through.

Winter 1963 didn't end with a snowy breakdown, the great freeze of early January 1982 just faded out. The frigid blast of mid February 1979 just faded out

 

[Troubleatmill]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The fact is a lot of  cold spells don't end with a snowy breakdown.

For instance 25 years ago after the great snow of 5th/6th February 1996, the low following Friday just barged through.

Winter 1963 didn't end with a snowy breakdown, the great freeze of early January 1982 just faded out. The frigid blast of mid February 1979 just faded out

 

That's so true, I guess here in the NW we are just hopeful of a snowy breakdown as we tend to be left a bit green with envy of those in the east in these set ups.

Apart from more sun than I expected this easterly has gone to plan, certainly for the low western parts....at least some of the copious amounts of rain water has been 'sucked up' by the dry air. Hope next week isn't one of them weeks where fronts just sit over us for days and the east stays dry. Salt in the wounds if they do

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Dexter said:

The metoffice are forecasting the risk of the odd snow flurry tomorrow afternoon and still going for outbreaks of rain, snow and possible freezing rain on Sunday. Then, milder and at times wet and windy during next week. The extended outlook mentions the potential for cold weather to re-establish from 20th February. Too far away yet to know whether this will happen, but encouraging nonetheless. Would be great to squeeze out another significant cold spell before winter ends. In the meantime, back to our old friend the Atlantic.

GFS has 3 hrs breakdown frontal snow from 3pm onward Saturday.

Thats it.

To be fair we have a few pipes perilously close to freezing up here and they're  ready for a bit of a warm up.

Easterly? forget it paltry snizzle snizzle and more snizzle -  as for the Winter  - decent Hoar frosts on the local fields and marsh but Alpine conditions in all the favoured Cumbrian areas -  lockdown?  - whats not to miss?

Maybe next year.

[Iceaxecrampon]