North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[snowdrifter]

Been sitting on this one, hoping it wouldn't be relevant, but no surprise...

[chicken soup]

abc.. Utterly depressing.. The worst region in the country by far this for snow.. The 25 year wait for a decent snow event continues. 

Edited February 11, 2021 by chicken soup

[Miamay]

Lovely morning today - pond frozen over last night. Wind is starting to get up 

[Joe Bloggs]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Interesting variations, I reckon it has been the snowiest winter around here since 2009-10 and the best winter in terms of wintriness since the cold winter cluster of 2008-13.

 

Agreed, cold and snowy winter here. 

[Had Worse]

12 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Agreed, cold and snowy winter here. 

Ditto

[SP1986]

Cold night last night!! -3.7C minimum in the end. Not as cold as expected but will be colder on Friday night.

 

[Joe Bloggs]

Anecdotally it seems like East Lancs is poorly placed for snow in general as the area often misses showers, especially on a NW’ly. 
 

Southern areas of the NW (especially SE) slightly better IMO. Would be interesting to see if this has changed over the years. 

[Weather-history]

Why the hell did the Met Office issue such an early warning and now they have cancelled for the region?

Ridiculous.

[Frosty the Snowman]

1 hour ago, chicken soup said:

abc.. Utterly depressing.. The worst region in the country by far this for snow.. The 25 year wait for a decent snow event continues. 

 

Probably be another 25 years wait, I'm unlikely to wait that long 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Id say this winter so far has been cold but barely any snow yet again, managed 0.3/0.4 cm on the 8th Jan which didnt thaw for 24 hours then a very light graupel dusting on the 24th Jan which thawed within a couple hours. The wait for more than 1cm of snow goes on.

[Weather-history]

What is it with the Met Office this winter? They have not had a good winter. 

Yesterday, they dished out warnings for snow and ice for Saturday including NW England. Today, those warnings have gone for NW England. Why issue these warnings so far advanced given the uncertainty? It looks ridiculous. They could have held off until Friday and pinpoint the area to the best of their ability. 

They issued unwarranted amber warnings and then not issue what should have been amber warnings. 

Their text forecasts have been at times poor using terms such as "wintry" rain, "snowy" showers and issuing text forecasts that if they looked at the radar would realise that the text forecast needs rewriting. 

[russwirral]

12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

What is it with the Met Office this winter? They have not had a good winter. 

Yesterday, they dished out warnings for snow and ice for Saturday including NW England. Today, those warnings have gone for NW England. Why issue these warnings so far advanced given the uncertainty? It looks ridiculous. They could have held off until Friday and pinpoint the area to the best of their ability. 

They issued unwarranted amber warnings and then not issue what should have been amber warnings. 

Their text forecasts have been at times poor using terms such as "wintry" rain, "snowy" showers and issuing text forecasts that if they looked at the radar would realise that the text forecast needs rewriting. 

yeh the bbc have been like this... forecast for dry days... then apply a nowcast element.  Its happened about 10 times this week.  Showers move in, the radar looks full, and the forecsast goes from dry to light snow for the next hour...

 

Almost a 1984 element of rewriting stories to fit reality so they build credibility.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by russwirral

[chris78]

56 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

What is it with the Met Office this winter? They have not had a good winter. 

Yesterday, they dished out warnings for snow and ice for Saturday including NW England. Today, those warnings have gone for NW England. Why issue these warnings so far advanced given the uncertainty? It looks ridiculous. They could have held off until Friday and pinpoint the area to the best of their ability. 

They issued unwarranted amber warnings and then not issue what should have been amber warnings. 

Their text forecasts have been at times poor using terms such as "wintry" rain, "snowy" showers and issuing text forecasts that if they looked at the radar would realise that the text forecast needs rewriting. 

Yesterdays warning though did say high level of uncertainty.      Now, I can see the argument that people dont read or understand how the warning operate, so they should take that into account.  Personally I am more than happy with being treated like an adult, in that they were saying....look there is a chance, although small that a disruptive event could happen, we are keeping it yellow as its very uncertain.  I can then do what I want with that info, and keep an eye on things.   I would hate them to reduce their warnings because they felt...well people dont really understand how all this works, they will take it as gospel, so best keep our mouths shut.  That to me seems to be tailoring things to the lowest common denominator.

 

For my location at least the warning have been spot on as the usually are. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

What is it with the Met Office this winter? They have not had a good winter. 

Yesterday, they dished out warnings for snow and ice for Saturday including NW England. Today, those warnings have gone for NW England. Why issue these warnings so far advanced given the uncertainty? It looks ridiculous. They could have held off until Friday and pinpoint the area to the best of their ability. 

They issued unwarranted amber warnings and then not issue what should have been amber warnings. 

Their text forecasts have been at times poor using terms such as "wintry" rain, "snowy" showers and issuing text forecasts that if they looked at the radar would realise that the text forecast needs rewriting. 

Met Office have lost the plot, warnings springing out of nowhere for an event that has already started or in some cases been and gone.

The Saturday warning sounds very sketchy, frankly no clue where the snow may fall. It's a significant reduction in area of scale, don't be surprised if areas shown yellow yesterday and removed today are added back in again.

 

[snowdrifter]

Despite no snow, to see a frozen lake and sea foam is rare indeed, just a shame there hasn't been any decent snow to go with it. Nice sunshine though... 

[severe snowstorm]

28 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Yesterdays warning though did say high level of uncertainty.      Now, I can see the argument that people dont read or understand how the warning operate, so they should take that into account.  Personally I am more than happy with being treated like an adult, in that they were saying....look there is a chance, although small that a disruptive event could happen, we are keeping it yellow as its very uncertain.  I can then do what I want with that info, and keep an eye on things.   I would hate them to reduce their warnings because they felt...well people dont really understand how all this works, they will take it as gospel, so best keep our mouths shut.  That to me seems to be tailoring things to the lowest common denominator.

 

For my location at least the warning have been spot on as the usually are. 

Good post - spot on. Whilst the metoffice have certainly been poor in some areas of their forecasting recently, I have no problem with them issuing a yellow warning in advance, which will have been based on information available at the time and as you say the uncertainty was clearly stated. Therefore, I don't really understand the issue people have with this. The whole point of the matrix is so that people can understand the uncertainty and level of impact so that they can then make informed judgements.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Dexter

[Frost HoIIow]

-7.5C was the low here this morning the coldest of the winter. Had we had full snow cover it would've easily been below -10C. But there's only patches of snow left here in north facing areas. Poor effort really. Sums up the winter though - a lot of falling and settling snow but nothing particularly heavy. Probably March will give us something better, it often does!

[Spah1]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Why the hell did the Met Office issue such an early warning and now they have cancelled for the region?

Ridiculous.

Their worst call of the season. 
 

Probably the trainee having a go. 

[Spah1]

58 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Good post - spot on. Whilst the metoffice have certainly been poor in some areas of their forecasting recently, I have no problem with them issuing a yellow warning in advance, which will have been based on information available at the time and as you say the uncertainty was clearly stated. Therefore, I don't really understand the issue people have with this. The whole point of the matrix is so that people can understand the uncertainty and level of impact so that they can then make informed judgements.

The problem is why post it on Wednesday for Saturday? No need to. 

[severe snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

The problem is why post it on Wednesday for Saturday? No need to. 

Because it's an advanced weather 'warning'? They have done the same thing for years with yellow warnings. What if they had waited until the afternoon before to issue the warning and the event had kept upgrading day on day leading up to Saturday in terms of the snow depths predicted? I can absolutely guarantee that there would be people on here questioning why they left it so late. They can't win sometimes. I'll be the first to agree that metoffice nowcasting has been really poor at times recently and some warnings have been issued late or not at all when needed, but I really don't understand the issue with issuing an advanced warning accompanied by an impact and probability matrix.

[chris78]

23 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

The problem is why post it on Wednesday for Saturday? No need to. 

But there was a need for anyone planning for Saturday.   Now at the moment we (I work for a conservation charity) we have no volunteers, but normally we would have sturday volunteering, the advanced notice would give me time to make contingency plans,  on the understanding that I may not need them as the event is unlikely or uncertain at least.    

A last minute warning does not afford me that time to come up with a contingency.

Remember most on here see the warnings and think...great possible snow....thats not what they are there for, they exist to give me and others forewarning to plan for disruption.     So here the reaction to a failed warning is...you bastards I was looking forward to that.....whereas my professional reaction is.....great my session can go ahead, but Im glad I  was prepared. 

Edited February 11, 2021 by chris78

[Spah1]

21 minutes ago, chris78 said:

But there was a need for anyone planning for Saturday.   Now at the moment we (I work for a conservation charity) we have no volunteers, but normally we would have sturday volunteering, the advanced notice would give me time to make contingency plans,  on the understanding that I may not need them as the event is unlikely or uncertain at least.    

A last minute warning does not afford me that time to come up with a contingency.

Remember most on here see the warnings and think...great possible snow....thats not what they are there for, they exist to give me and others forewarning to plan for disruption.     So here the reaction to a failed warning is...you bastards I was looking forward to that.....whereas my professional reaction is.....great my session can go ahead, but Im glad I  was prepared. 

I understand your point.

They have the best data and people working there however. 

Their warning suggested there may be disruptive snow as far as Yorkshire and now only 24hrs later they are suggesting disruptive snow will not reach the NW. With that level of uncertainty just wait.  There was no need to put that warning out there yesterday I think it was a mistake. 

[Spah1]

28 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Because it's an advanced weather 'warning'? They have done the same thing for years with yellow warnings. What if they had waited until the afternoon before to issue the warning and the event had kept upgrading day on day leading up to Saturday in terms of the snow depths predicted? I can absolutely guarantee that there would be people on here questioning why they left it so late. They can't win sometimes. I'll be the first to agree that metoffice nowcasting has been really poor at times recently and some warnings have been issued late or not at all when needed, but I really don't understand the issue with issuing an advanced warning accompanied by an impact and probability matrix.

See my post to Chris. 

There was no need to put it out that early considering the uncertainty. Christ it's only Thursday and the warning is for Saturday. 1 Day makes no difference. A poor mistake,. 

[Spah1]

Anyway....

Just look at the afternoons ICON. A band of snow makes it to Ireland then fades as it reaches the NW. It's virtually impossible to get frontal snowfall here. 

[severe snowstorm]

10 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

See my post to Chris. 

There was no need to put it out that early considering the uncertainty. Christ it's only Thursday and the warning is for Saturday. 1 Day makes no difference. A poor mistake,. 

In that case, why not just issue the warning when an event has started each time? That way they can be 100% sure it's warranted and will face no backlash.......

The warning is not a guarantee that the event will occur, hence the matrix. I would like to know how the fact it was issued yesterday and adjusted today has caused anyone any inconvenience or hardship?