North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Chris.R]

32 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Admire your optimism but been burnt a little too many times with prospects of fronts coming in from the Atlantic against colder air for our region

Mid March 2004, the amber alert given by the met office for mid January 2013 only for it too develop a low and it all sank southwards. Early February 2012, for western parts, eastern parts did pretty well though.

I can only think of the front that ended the January 2013 cold spell that really delivered anything in the last decade.

 

 

 

? Feb 2006 - 10 cm; 
23 Dec 2009 - 10 cm; 

13th Jan 2010 - 5 cm; 

18th Feb 2010 - 2 cm; 

21st Feb 2010 - 5 cm;

25th Jan 2013 - 5 cm;

13th Feb 2013 - 5 cm;

21st March 2013 - 5 cm;
8th March 2018 - 10 cm;

18th Jan 2019 - dusting— several hours heavy snow followed by ice pellets;

22nd Jan 2019 - dusting - several hours heavy snow.

these were all good events for me and that was when I was in Crosby.

 

 

 

[frosty ground]

Latest GFS has the front over Ireland and delayed I think people are chasing rainbows with this breakdown uppers slowly mixed out with the cold at the surface then a quick pulse of a dying front to finish of the cold 

 

which is a shame because the whole region can do really well at the breakdown especially a slow protracted one.

the sun is out and it’s -4 and it’s glorious 

[frosty ground]

 

delayed fragmented front 

[russwirral]

28 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

? Feb 2006 - 10 cm; 
23 Dec 2009 - 10 cm; 

13th Jan 2010 - 5 cm; 

18th Feb 2010 - 2 cm; 

21st Feb 2010 - 5 cm;

25th Jan 2013 - 5 cm;

13th Feb 2013 - 5 cm;

21st March 2013 - 5 cm;
8th March 2018 - 10 cm;

18th Jan 2019 - dusting— several hours heavy snow followed by ice pellets;

22nd Jan 2019 - dusting - several hours heavy snow.

these were all good events for me and that was when I was in Crosby.

 

 

 

This is pretty bonkers compared to me, I live within maybe 10 miles of both of these areas, (Halewood is about 6km away) , and arguably we live furter in Land.  yet my records are vastly different.  Ive even checked photos i took.

 

? Feb 2006 - 10 cm;   Ahh - you mean March 12th 2006.  we had about 12cm. from a stalled front from the west
23 Dec 2009 - 10 cm;   I think we managed about 6cm 

13th Jan 2010 - 5 cm;  about the same

18th Feb 2010 - 2 cm;  Cant remember this one

21st Feb 2010 - 5 cm; Neithr this one

25th Jan 2013 - 5 cm; yeh we had snow every friday for about 3 weeks... these two where the biggest if I remember correctly

13th Feb 2013 - 5 cm; ^

21st March 2013 - 5 cm; we had about 2cm. We went to Hong Kong the following day.  I took My Prince2 Foundation exam on this day on the outskirts of Chester, I remember we had maybe a dusting, Ellesmere port had none as I drove on the M53 through it to the exam centre.  Chester had about 7cm.  Where as Broughton 6 miles south of where I live had 40cm in one night.

8th March 2018 - 10 cm;  we had less than 2cm  it was mostly Dry.  Snow would pump up from the south east and die between chester and wales.  

18th Jan 2019 - dusting— several hours heavy snow followed by ice pellets; Less than 1cm

22nd Jan 2019 - dusting - several hours heavy snow. Less than 1cm

 

Its so infuriating that we come so close ...every ...time....

My neice is 9 going on 10.  Shes never made a snowman in her garden, never been sledging. never seen deep snow.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by russwirral

[frosty ground]

GFS 06z doesn’t delay the front it obliterates it leavin the U.K. in a could south easterly unfortunately the uppers have all mixed out hence no break down

[russwirral]

The block is fighting back on the 6z GFS... atlantic just cant get in

[Joe Snow]

Beautiful crisp winters morning down to -4c here last night and likely to be even colder tonight maybe an ice day tomorrow. Cold block looks more stubborn than first forecast on the 6z too. 

[Snow free zone]

1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

 

Why does this keep happening

Edited February 10, 2021 by Snow free zone

[alr1970]

Still 0C here, was -4.5 overnight. On my morning exercise ride, I rode my bike straight across the top of the last puddle remaining from Christoph near the river. It's still a couple of inches deep so either frozen solid or thick enough to bear my weight.

[cheshire snow]

Weather warning out for Saturday for our region snow ice and possibility of freezing rain.

C.S

[cheshire snow]

No mild spell on the GFS 06z run temperature no higher than 6c and that's only 1 day out to the 25th Feb.

Cold air fighting back?

C.S

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

? Feb 2006 - 10 cm; 
23 Dec 2009 - 10 cm; 

13th Jan 2010 - 5 cm; 

18th Feb 2010 - 2 cm; 

21st Feb 2010 - 5 cm;

25th Jan 2013 - 5 cm;

13th Feb 2013 - 5 cm;

21st March 2013 - 5 cm;
8th March 2018 - 10 cm;

18th Jan 2019 - dusting— several hours heavy snow followed by ice pellets;

22nd Jan 2019 - dusting - several hours heavy snow.

these were all good events for me and that was when I was in Crosby.

 

 

 

Different scenarios, Chris.

For instance 23rd December 2009 was a front coming up from the south, not an Atlantic breakdown

21st February 2010 was a small low that tracked across the region, that wasn't an Atlantic breakdown, so was 18th February 2010. They were systems  already embedded in a cold airmass.

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Weather-history

[Chris.R]

@russwirral

Yeah that’s right 12th March 2006, knew it was sometime around then.

 

Crazy the differences over a few miles. Maybe I should’ve stayed in Crosby then lol.

Edited February 10, 2021 by Chris.R

[Chris.R]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Different scenarios, Chris.

For instance 23rd December 2009 was a front coming up from the south, not an Atlantic breakdown

21st February 2010 was a small low that tracked across the region, that wasn't an Atlantic breakdown, so was 18th February 2010. They were systems  already embedded in a cold airmass.

 

 

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Different scenarios, Chris.

For instance 23rd December 2009 was a front coming up from the south, not an Atlantic breakdown

21st February 2010 was a small low that tracked across the region, that wasn't an Atlantic breakdown, so was 18th February 2010. They were systems  already embedded in a cold airmass.

 

Ok i’ll get my coat

[Frosty the Snowman]

Just got a light snow flurry here, certainly looks a bit heavier than radar says it is.

 

 

Looks as though showers from the NE could be making it through - we'll know for certain when we see what this does

 

 

[Troubleatmill]

1 hour ago, russwirral said:

This is pretty bonkers compared to me, I live within maybe 10 miles of both of these areas, (Halewood is about 6km away) , and arguably we live furter in Land.  yet my records are vastly different.  Ive even checked photos i took.

 

? Feb 2006 - 10 cm;   Ahh - you mean March 12th 2006.  we had about 12cm. from a stalled front from the west
23 Dec 2009 - 10 cm;   I think we managed about 6cm 

13th Jan 2010 - 5 cm;  about the same

18th Feb 2010 - 2 cm;  Cant remember this one

21st Feb 2010 - 5 cm; Neithr this one

25th Jan 2013 - 5 cm; yeh we had snow every friday for about 3 weeks... these two where the biggest if I remember correctly

13th Feb 2013 - 5 cm; ^

21st March 2013 - 5 cm; we had about 2cm. We went to Hong Kong the following day.  I took My Prince2 Foundation exam on this day on the outskirts of Chester, I remember we had maybe a dusting, Ellesmere port had none as I drove on the M53 through it to the exam centre.  Chester had about 7cm.  Where as Broughton 6 miles south of where I live had 40cm in one night.

8th March 2018 - 10 cm;  we had less than 2cm  it was mostly Dry.  Snow would pump up from the south east and die between chester and wales.  

18th Jan 2019 - dusting— several hours heavy snow followed by ice pellets; Less than 1cm

22nd Jan 2019 - dusting - several hours heavy snow. Less than 1cm

 

Its so infuriating that we come so close ...every ...time....

My neice is 9 going on 10.  Shes never made a snowman in her garden, never been sledging. never seen deep snow.

 

 

 

 

My mood is dwindling by the second

Preston : Dec 2009 & 2010 about 6cm each

....the end

Amazed how many fronts move up from the south and stop at Southport before slipping away. Nothing in 2018...nadda

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Beano

[Alexis]

I think we're looking at 2 or 3 very cold nights and then that's the end.

Very poor.

[Manchester_Sunset]

Can't see anything happening today 

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, Manchester_Sunset said:

Can't see anything happening today 

We have lost the wall to wall sunshine and clouds are bubbling up so we never know

[Spah1]

Looks to me on the Models it fizzles out ???

Exeter must see it making inroads. 

[Frosty the Snowman]

12 minutes ago, Manchester_Sunset said:

Can't see anything happening today 

If these showers can't start surviving the Pennines could be some good falls. 

 

Each one seems to be getting further than the last so far. 

[chicken soup]

9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Looks to me on the Models it fizzles out ???

Exeter must see it making inroads. 

Thier just covering thier asses I think in the unlikely event it gets here. 

[Frosty the Snowman]

 

There's the two main directions snow have come from next week. No wonder @chicken soup was so adamant that Easterly's would be crap in this neck of the woods. Awful cold spell, woke up to a covering one day and dustings the rest but with 600m hills to kill precip from one direction and 500m hills to kill it from another direction, no wonder it's dung.

 

All eyes on breakdown. 

[Frosty the Snowman]

13 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Thier just covering thier asses I think in the unlikely event it gets here. 

 

To be fair that's exactly what the warning is saying 'Unlikely but High Impact'

[Weather-history]

Clear skies have now become a bit more convective. Maybe odd flurries here and there