North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Heading this way bit by bit

Thought the winds were ENE.. so that would make any bands  of showers go in a WSW direction?? 

[iand61]

The BBC website has run a story throughout the day about the snow in the South and yet there are still no photographs of any deep snow other than a couple taken in Scotland.

surely in times when no event is more than a couples of metres from a camera, someone would have sent in pictures of the snow.

or was it a widespread letdown.

[Frigid]

MetO is forecasting snow for the whole day tomorrow in Manchester, hoping this doesn't suddenly change.

[Thunder Snow]

5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

I am surprised, you have the best looking patch on the radar!

I know Andy but nothing 

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, Frigid said:

MetO is forecasting snow for the whole day tomorrow in Manchester, hoping this doesn't suddenly change.

Probably will change 

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Thought the winds were ENE.. so that would make any bands  of showers go in a WSW direction?? 

You are correct with the track and wind direction but if you look at the Sat 24 link I posted up the page, you will see the precipitation slowly edging North as that line of showers does.

[severe snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Thought the winds were ENE.. so that would make any bands  of showers go in a WSW direction?? 

That's correct, but perhaps it is following/forming along the convergence line which is giving the impression it is moving North?

Edited February 7, 2021 by Dexter

[cambs_ry]

6 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

You asked for my thoughts yesterday - convective easterly snow showers do usually make it over the Pennines to affect Manchester.  They sometimes die further west. 

According to a fair few models (but not all), Manchester will get snow showers tonight and tomorrow. 

They haven’t throughout today, so why will tonight/tomorrow be different? Is it just a matter of intensity, i.e. heavier pulses making it over before fizzling out, or stronger winds transporting them faster?

I will keep tempering my expectations, I’ve come from Edinburgh and experienced that proper dumping in early March 2018 - I’ve been spoilt!

[Wardlegacy]

4 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

You are correct with the track and wind direction but if you look at the Sat 24 link I posted up the page, you will see the precipitation slowly edging North as that line of showers does.

Is it likely to be building on its northern flank  with the convergence zone making its movement look northwards?

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, MancRM95 said:

They haven’t throughout today, so why will tonight/tomorrow be different? Is it just a matter of intensity, i.e. heavier pulses making it over before fizzling out, or stronger winds transporting them faster?

I will keep tempering my expectations, I’ve come from Edinburgh and experienced that proper dumping in early March 2018 - I’ve been spoilt!

 

Explanation

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Wardlegacy said:

Is it likely to be building on its northern flank  with the convergence zone making its movement look northwards?

Yes, that's my thinking too.

[A Face like Thunder]

The wonderfully named Sara Blizzard referred to 'snow streams' for the NW tomorrow on tonight's local TV news bulletin. Catch one and you could get some significant snow, miss it and you'll get none, is roughly what I heard her say.  

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, MancRM95 said:

They haven’t throughout today, so why will tonight/tomorrow be different? Is it just a matter of intensity, i.e. heavier pulses making it over before fizzling out, or stronger winds transporting them faster?

I will keep tempering my expectations, I’ve come from Edinburgh and experienced that proper dumping in early March 2018 - I’ve been spoilt!

Heavier showers basically. And I think slightly colder air. They were never meant to today but there are consistent signs in the models of them making it over the hills tomorrow. But still quite uncertain.  

I lived in Edinburgh during December 2010 - now that was an experience.

[WillinGlossop]

-2c Dew -5c dandruff still falling... icicles extended 6-7 inches... 

[Joe Bloggs]

7 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

 

Explanation

That’s a better explanation! 

[Joe Bloggs]

Also nicked from the Yorks thread 

https://snowwatch.org/status/a/482

[Spah1]

Thats as far as the front gets next Friday. 
 

Move on. 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

Thats as far as the front gets next Friday. 
 

Move on. 

If you could legally drive to Aberdaron, you'd get some action.

[NickyB]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Thats as far as the front gets next Friday. 
 

Move on. 

[Kasim Awan]

Ok folks here is my current assessment for tonight and Monday.

Vorticity (convection) is building now, and will continue to build overnight. It will remain highest over Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire and South Derbyshire which are currently favoured for high totals of 10-20cm. Locally 25cm can't be ruled out in the vicinity of this area, say Chesterfield or south Sheffield area.

I am expecting moderate scattered showers further north into the Peak District, East Manchester, East Cheshire, East Cumbria and further north into "central" and West Yorkshire. Here, a covering of up to 5cm is possible by the morning, especially above 200 metres. The instability will wave northwards during the morning so I can see an area of more organized converge move into north Sheffield, Glossop, East Manchester area (more of us in this forum) through Monday, and potentially Monday evening as the streamer further south reduces in it's convective potential. This will result in more convection further north due to convective laws, and subsequently more snow showers late Monday into early Tuesday for Halifax, Huddersfield, Manchester. This is unlikely to be as intense as the streamer further south, the Humber > Chesterfield > Ashbourne one, however will be enough to produce a 2-5cm covering  and in places 10cm >200m in the East.

This pattern, I expect, will be quite repetitive through Monday and even Monday evening. So I can see further big accumulations in "the south", - relative to us, and relatively short lived heavy showers further north., before a switch to more northerly convection through Monday.

As a prognosis of streamer activity, uncertainty here is relatively high so I expect this to "go wrong" in some regard, for example the switch further north may occur earlier on, or the two streamers may exist in tandem

In terms of western progression, fortunately wind speed and instability is ample to allow showers to climb over the Pennines now. Lighter yes but enough for accumulation. So in general a dusting to 2cm locally west of the M6 > east of the M6 1-5cm, say 3-4cm under the lucky event of a streamer in this region, east of the 100 metre contour in the East Manchester region > 2-8cm, and 5-15cm over and on the Eastern flank of the Pennines even to low levels.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Spah1]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Ok folks here is my current assessment for tonight and Monday.

Vorticity (convection) is building now, and will continue to build overnight. It will remain highest over Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire and South Derbyshire which are currently favoured for high totals of 10-20cm. Locally 25cm can't be ruled out in the vicinity of this area, say Chesterfield or south Sheffield area.

I am expecting moderate scattered showers further north into the Peak District, East Manchester, East Cheshire, East Cumbria and further north into "central" and West Yorkshire. Here, a covering of up to 5cm is possible by the morning, especially above 200 metres. The instability will wave northwards during the morning so I can see an area of more organized converge move into north Sheffield, Glossop, East Manchester area (more of us in this forum) through Monday, and potentially Monday evening as the streamer further south reduces in it's convective potential. This will result in more convection further north due to convective laws, and subsequently more snow showers late Monday into early Tuesday for Halifax, Huddersfield, Manchester. This is unlikely to be as intense as the streamer further south, the Humber > Chesterfield > Ashbourne one, however will be enough to produce a 2-5cm covering  and in places 10cm >200m in the East.

This pattern, I expect, will be quite repetitive through Monday and even Monday evening. So I can see further big accumulations in "the south", - relative to us, and relatively short lived heavy showers further north., before a switch to more northerly convection through Monday.

As a prognosis of streamer activity, uncertainty here is relatively high so I expect this to "go wrong" in some regard, for example the switch further north may occur earlier on, or the two streamers may exist in tandem

In terms of western progression, fortunately wind speed and instability is ample to allow showers to climb over the Pennines now. Lighter yes but enough for accumulation. So in general a dusting to 2cm locally west of the M6 > east of the M6 1-5cm, east of the 100 metre contour in the East Manchester region > 2-8cm, and 5-15cm over and on the Eastern flank of the Pennines even to low levels.

Looks like my 1cm bet is safe! 

[Had Worse]

Does that mean we get double portions Kasim?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like I'll be in the dry patch between the two streamers...couldn't make it up after looking in an ok spot up until this morning.

Looks like I'll be staring at grey scenes then as per.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by CreweCold

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like I'll be in the dry patch between the two streamers...couldn't make it up after looking in an ok spot up until this morning.

Looks like I'll be staring at grey scenes then as per.

 

Feel for you mate. I do think you'll see a flake or 2, hopefully 2 million or more.

[raul_sbd]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Ok folks here is my current assessment for tonight and Monday.

Vorticity (convection) is building now, and will continue to build overnight. It will remain highest over Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire and South Derbyshire which are currently favoured for high totals of 10-20cm. Locally 25cm can't be ruled out in the vicinity of this area, say Chesterfield or south Sheffield area.

I am expecting moderate scattered showers further north into the Peak District, East Manchester, East Cheshire, East Cumbria and further north into "central" and West Yorkshire. Here, a covering of up to 5cm is possible by the morning, especially above 200 metres. The instability will wave northwards during the morning so I can see an area of more organized converge move into north Sheffield, Glossop, East Manchester area (more of us in this forum) through Monday, and potentially Monday evening as the streamer further south reduces in it's convective potential. This will result in more convection further north due to convective laws, and subsequently more snow showers late Monday into early Tuesday for Halifax, Huddersfield, Manchester. This is unlikely to be as intense as the streamer further south, the Humber > Chesterfield > Ashbourne one, however will be enough to produce a 2-5cm covering  and in places 10cm >200m in the East.

This pattern, I expect, will be quite repetitive through Monday and even Monday evening. So I can see further big accumulations in "the south", - relative to us, and relatively short lived heavy showers further north., before a switch to more northerly convection through Monday.

As a prognosis of streamer activity, uncertainty here is relatively high so I expect this to "go wrong" in some regard, for example the switch further north may occur earlier on, or the two streamers may exist in tandem

In terms of western progression, fortunately wind speed and instability is ample to allow showers to climb over the Pennines now. Lighter yes but enough for accumulation. So in general a dusting to 2cm locally west of the M6 > east of the M6 1-5cm, east of the 100 metre contour in the East Manchester region > 2-8cm, and 5-15cm over and on the Eastern flank of the Pennines even to low levels.

Can you represent that graphically on a map @Kasim Awan? Accumulation is quite clear but the streamer distribution/timing bit confusing or complicated lol