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North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Another snow shower, still light but slightly heavier than the last one. 2.2°C.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Just had a look at the latest GFS run WTF!!!!

gfsnh-1-354.thumb.png.b71c75bc406ebbbe30818f1a9d8ba71d.png

@Miamay I think we'd be able to have modern day pictures of ice floes in the Mersey!

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
8 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Looks as though that band over Kent is finally on the retreat which should open up the North Sea for business as the afternoon progresses. 

They are under the warning until tomorrow morning. I’ll be surprised if it’s retreating already. 

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
9 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Looks as though that band over Kent is finally on the retreat which should open up the North Sea for business as the afternoon progresses. 

Just dipped in the SE thread, general mood is it's a let down although think Kent and around Colchester have done quite well. Pretty much in line with the Mets amber warning. Seems just not heavy enough in most places and surfaces sodden....sounds like home!

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl

Latest fax for tomorrow. Trough/convergence zone still in roughly the same place. However, Euro 4 indicates potential for multiple streamers.

image.thumb.png.3a07ed9ad4fe6b0fc13ce69dafa8bbc6.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
1 minute ago, Dexter said:

Latest fax for tomorrow. Trough/convergence zone still in roughly the same place. However, Euro 4 indicates potential for multiple streamers.

image.thumb.png.3a07ed9ad4fe6b0fc13ce69dafa8bbc6.png

 

Looks slightly further south if anything

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
12 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Just had a look at the latest GFS run WTF!!!!

gfsnh-1-354.thumb.png.b71c75bc406ebbbe30818f1a9d8ba71d.png

@Miamay I think we'd be able to have modern day pictures of ice floes in the Mersey!

I have to say we probably would. Continental Europe would have a polar bear fest whilst here it would overall surpass 2010 quite easily in this local area.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
9 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Latest fax for tomorrow. Trough/convergence zone still in roughly the same place. However, Euro 4 indicates potential for multiple streamers.

image.thumb.png.3a07ed9ad4fe6b0fc13ce69dafa8bbc6.png

 

Hopefully that is one of many.

If little flurries are making it to here, then when the wind strengthens further tonight and the showers pep up then I'd be shocked not to at least see a covering this far west by Wed.

Just now.

1725518650_Screenshot_2021-02-07WeatherRadar-LiveUKRainfallRadarNetweather.thumb.png.1eb02eed214e45695998afc3a4bb8c2c.png

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
9 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Latest fax for tomorrow. Trough/convergence zone still in roughly the same place. However, Euro 4 indicates potential for multiple streamers.

image.thumb.png.3a07ed9ad4fe6b0fc13ce69dafa8bbc6.png

 

Is it me or has the CZ dipped a little further south?

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
3 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Is it me or has the CZ dipped a little further south?

Definitely trending South ☹️

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

I posted the link to 06z EURO4 earlier - the streamer goes into the North Midlands instead. GEM shows southerly corrections too. 

But lots and lots of uncertainty and there still could be general showers. Other models slightly better for us, including the Arpege I think. 
 

Basically it’s time to bin the high-res and watch the radar instead. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
22 minutes ago, Beano said:

Just dipped in the SE thread, general mood is it's a let down although think Kent and around Colchester have done quite well. Pretty much in line with the Mets amber warning. Seems just not heavy enough in most places and surfaces sodden....sounds like home!

I was speaking to a friend in Kent this morning. They had had heavy overnight snow which had settled but had stopped by 11am. Still very grey here but just a few flakes in the air at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

I posted the link to 06z EURO4 earlier - the streamer goes into the North Midlands instead. GEM shows southerly corrections too. 

But lots and lots of uncertainty and there still could be general showers. Other models slightly better for us, including the Arpege I think. 
 

Basically it’s time to bin the high-res and watch the radar instead. 

I know this is different but ALL models predicted the northern extent of the last two snowfalls wrong, so surely convergence zones are even more difficult to model, it wouldn't take much of a correction north really.

It wouldn't surprise me if a trough feature crops up anyway once showers band together crossing the north sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
3 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

The showers just aint making it here, are the showers forecast tonight when the winds pick up?

Nothing of note was predicted for today in the NW, not even flurries, which bodes well for when shower activity does pep up tomorrow

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Posted
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside

The convection is very lacklustre so far. Come on North Sea I thought you were supposed to be the snow machine heh. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl

HARMONIE via Met.ie

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Posted
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat, thunderstorms and winter snow
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL
8 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

What temps are we expecting in the day Monda/Tuesday onwards? Not sure which sites are the most accurate? I would love ice days so every flake that falls sticks and blows about.

For Sandbach I've used Xc weather that tends to be the most accurate in terms of temp locally more so than BBC and the MO. I'm hovering around 1c max throughout much of the week with the risk of ice days increasing as the week goes on particularly if we get snow cover to lower overnight temps so with your height ice days definitely likely particularly mid week onwards. Dew points are low too so any snow will be the powdery type that sticks around and ices over. Fingers crossed you get a good covering of snow too - Stoke/ North Staffs looking well placed. Hoping S Cheshire can get in on the act tonight into tomorrow/Tuesday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl

Well today has been better than I was expecting this far West at this stage. Flurries on and off for the past couple of hours or so, with some moderate in intensity. The recent one started to put a dusting down at the peak, which melted soon after. Very encouraging signs.

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

Seems to be a few prams losing toys in the SE thread at the moment.

for Christ sake it’s a good job they don’t live in this region where even a threat of nothing is usually downgraded.

meanwhile my persistent fall of snow continues, it’s the white frozen version of the type of rain that wouldn’t even stop the cricket but it’s better than nowt.

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