North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Joe Bloggs]

3 minutes ago, jam2010 said:

Think im going to call it a night, love the positivity in here even after all the let downs recently, I feel like I've had the sinking feeling since last week. I just can't see anything getting over the hills. Keep the positve vibes, I will check in tommorow again ha can't keep me away.

We’ve had the best winter in south Manc in many a year so far!!! The only think we’ve missed is a deep snow fall (we’ve had several light coverings).. Not so good in your patch maybe? This is maybe why I feel more chilled. I do want more though.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Joe Bloggs

[jam2010]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

We’ve had the best winter in south Manc in many a year so far!!! The only think we’ve missed is a deep snow fall. Not so good in your patch maybe? This is maybe why I feel more chilled. I do want more though.

Yeah, south Manchester has done ok I think, North Manchester did get 2cm for an hour after the storm a few weeks ago, but evreything has missed us ha, i have took screenshots and think how did it even miss us. Fingers crossed the whole of Manchester and then the North west gets that big dump (we would still want more ha)

[Kasim Awan]

The stuff on Monday will be slightly better primed to get over the hills

I am currently in the process of writing a Pennine precipitation shadow function

Takes parameters and resolves the trend of precipitation intensity from E to W over the Pennines

[Frosty the Snowman]

Ok. Giving up for the night. Seen a few minutes of falling snow and a abundance of sleet and rain.

 

Hopefully the next few days is somewhat more interesting. Otherwise I might get a shovel and start digging up the Pennines myself. 

[Had Worse]

Nothing to see here.

[Joe Bloggs]

The 18z runs (including the GEM) has pushed the streamer potential slightly further south sadly. However there is still shower potential shown at times. 

[Frost HoIIow]

I think the window of opportunity for snow is between now and Wednesday morning. I could be wrong but after that I reckon pressure might be too high for any proper precipitation. It will be bitterly cold but no snow.

[Joe Bloggs]

Everywhere in the NW should see a tiny dusting apart from parts of Cumbria and Manchester City Centre (don’t take this seriously but made me laugh) 

[Frosty the Snowman]

Just for fun. Max/Min 2m temps for the end of what will surely be known in years to come as That GFS

 

[Joe Bloggs]

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The stuff on Monday will be slightly better primed to get over the hills

I am currently in the process of writing a Pennine precipitation shadow function

Takes parameters and resolves the trend of precipitation intensity from E to W over the Pennines

Sounds like this would save us a lot of heartache ! Good news about Monday , we’ll see how we get on. 

[cambs_ry]

21 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The stuff on Monday will be slightly better primed to get over the hills

I am currently in the process of writing a Pennine precipitation shadow function

Takes parameters and resolves the trend of precipitation intensity from E to W over the Pennines

I'm a fairly new Manchester resident and I'm not familiar with any proper snowfall here, beyond the transient stuff the other week. What sort of set-up does Manchester fare well in?

Watching the radar loop as the precipitation crosses the Pennines at the moment and it's like Andy Burnham has erected a gigantic physical shield over GM!

[carl1980]

Looking dry here now everything being gobbled up by the hills

[Joe Bloggs]

19 minutes ago, MancRM95 said:

I'm a fairly new Manchester resident and I'm not familiar with any proper snowfall here, beyond the transient stuff the other week. What sort of set-up does Manchester fare well in?

Watching the radar loop as the precipitation crosses the Pennines at the moment and it's like Andy Burnham has erected a gigantic physical shield over GM!

Welcome.  

Manchester does best in a NW’ly Arctic airmass but specifically when the wind reverts to a straight W’ly but maintains the very cold uppers, that is Manchester’s best setup. Eg December 2000, December 2001, December 2009 and January 2010.
 

We nearly always get snow showers off the Irish Sea when there’s a westerly wind and cold uppers, even if they are short sharp spells - e.g. Jan 2015 and Jan 2019 - on these occasions Manchester might be the only city in the country receiving snow at the time. 

Deep cold easterlies will usually bring snow showers but they often die as they reach west Manchester - you may see some Monday and Tuesday. Fronts moving in from the west into an easterly airmass are not to be relied upon because we can be affected by the Pennine snow shadow effect which dries out the precipitation. 
 

We can be a frustrating city for snow but certainly not the worst. I’d temper your expectations though as that transient stuff you speak of recently is probably the snowiest spell we’ve had for quite a number of years. I was driving past Castlefield the other week with snow settling on the Mancunian Way - believe me that doesn’t happen too often. Transient events are very common - the last time we had deep cold and long lasting deep snow was Jan 2010. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Joe Bloggs

[Dark Horse]

It's been a pretty decent winter so far. Had something like 6 separate snow covers up to now. Much better than the previous 2 Winters combined! Looking at the models I'd be very surprised if the rest of this Winter had no more snow.

[Kasim Awan]

17 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Welcome.  

Manchester does best in a NW’ly Arctic airmass but specifically when the wind reverts to a straight W’ly but maintains the very cold uppers, that is Manchester’s best setup. Eg December 2000, December 2001, December 2009 and January 2010.

Deep cold easterlies will usually bring snow showers but they often die as they reach west Manchester - you may see some Monday and Tuesday. Fronts moving in from the west into an easterly airmass are not to be relied upon because we can be affected by the Pennine snow shadow effect which dries out the precipitation. 
 

We can be a frustrating city for snow but certainly not the worst. I’d temper your expectations though as that transient stuff you speak of recently is probably the snowiest spell we’ve had for quite a number of years. I was driving past Castlefield the other week with snow settling on the Mancunian Way - believe me that doesn’t happen too often. Transient events are very common - the last time we had deep cold and long lasting deep snow was Jan 2010. 

Yeah I agree. Manchester City Centre is one of the worst places in the UK for settling snow because of the shield and UHI. Only slightly better than Liverpool on average. Once you are outside the M60 your snow chances increase, especially to the east where snowfall averages close to the UK average are reached as close as Denton, snow here is as good as the Midlands. It's a highly variable city, complex because if Denton gets snow Manchester cite centre is guaranteed. But not the same for Stalybridge. 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[jam2010]

Wow that wind has really got up, just woke me up!

[Miamay]

All quiet here at the moment

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks to me like streamers could set up anywhere across the region over the next few days. Tomorrow night into late Tues probably the peak?

[SnowWatcher2]

Monday afternoon looks interesting..

[SnowWatcher2]

Radar also currently seems to be building slightly over M1

[Andypvfc]

We might need get the Jumpers out in a few weeks, if it starts getting Cold. .

So the question is any chance of a Greenland high to increase the chance of Snow for us in the North West and Mids

[PsychedelicTony]

2 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Welcome.  

Manchester does best in a NW’ly Arctic airmass but specifically when the wind reverts to a straight W’ly but maintains the very cold uppers, that is Manchester’s best setup. Eg December 2000, December 2001, December 2009 and January 2010.
 

We nearly always get snow showers off the Irish Sea when there’s a westerly wind and cold uppers, even if they are short sharp spells - e.g. Jan 2015 and Jan 2019 - on these occasions Manchester might be the only city in the country receiving snow at the time. 

Deep cold easterlies will usually bring snow showers but they often die as they reach west Manchester - you may see some Monday and Tuesday. Fronts moving in from the west into an easterly airmass are not to be relied upon because we can be affected by the Pennine snow shadow effect which dries out the precipitation. 
 

We can be a frustrating city for snow but certainly not the worst. I’d temper your expectations though as that transient stuff you speak of recently is probably the snowiest spell we’ve had for quite a number of years. I was driving past Castlefield the other week with snow settling on the Mancunian Way - believe me that doesn’t happen too often. Transient events are very common - the last time we had deep cold and long lasting deep snow was Jan 2010. 

I lived in South Manchester for 28 years until 4 years ago. This is a great assessment.

Might get lucky on a cold NWly, often misses  streamers heading hrough Cheshire gap. Far South and South East can catch them, just. Eg Wythenshawe and Stockport South   can get hit but Didsbury zilch.

Straight Westerly cold airmass bingo. Very rare its cold enough. Usually after weeks of entrenched surface cold.

Battleground attack from the west with easterly feed, icy drizzle/light pellets. For hours. Zero accumulation. 

North Easterly did have a few falls make it over which can provide a quick covering, got to be a LOT of showers packing into say Whitby area on a strong wind. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by PsychedelicTony
Spelling / Grammar

[PsychedelicTony]

The best synoptics for Manchester is when you get an Easterly  place for a week or so, then veers Northerly for another few days. Any slight change then to the West in the wind direction usually does the business. 

[Backtrack]

3 hours ago, Spah1 said:

The Great 2021 BFTE Snow Depth Prediction

 

!!!!!!!   So now we are up and running    !!!!!!

 

Frosty the Snowman - Blackburn 15cm

Andypvfc - Cheshire 2cm

iand61 Bacup - 10-30cm

Snow Free Zone - 0cm

Joe Snow - Sandbach 4cm

Slidergate 17 Sale 2cm

Winter Hill - Horwich - 10cm

Chicken Soup - Blackburn - dusting 

William Glossop - 15cm

Osca31 - Brigrigg Cumbria- 1cm

Robbo - Hattersley - 8cm

Cheshire Snow - Northwich - 12cm

Chris78 - Preston - 1cm

Raul_sbd - Sale - 3cm

Thundersnow - Carlisle - 0.5 cm

Dy 10 - 5cm - Wirral 

SnowWatcher2 - High Crompton - 8cm

Face Like Thunder - Crewe - 0cm

Fellmike - Crewe - 2cm

ManchesterSunset - Stockport - 5cm

Swainclubber - Littleborough - 7cm

Mark Blackpool 2cm

Had Worse - Glossop - 19.05cm

Kasim - Buxton - 16cm

Hailseizertoo - Wavertree - 6cm

Dkeane3 - South Manchester - 3cm

JamesM - Saddleworth- 12cm

Jam2010 - north Manchester 4.5 cm

Captaincroc - Halmer End - 14cm

Mark88 - Merseyside- 0cm

Shaun L - Wallasey - 3cm

toccylad - Mossley Hill - 0cm

Snowmad79 - Sholver - 30cm

Fell Mike - Crewe - 15cm

Ramp - Newhey - 14cm

Weather History - Irlam - 0.5cm

Crewe Cold 1c

Miamay Liverpool 0cm

Dodge - Oldham - 4cm

Loubie_4 - Maghull - 4cm

Dexter - Northwich 2cm

Cumbria Marra 0cm

SP1986 - Heswall -0

Pip - Clayton-le-Woods 3cm

Iceaxecrampon - Salwick - dusting

Georgiesnow- Morecambe- 1cm

Snowdrifter - Lytham - 0.5cm

Joggs - Bingley - 6.5 cm

Joe Bloggs - Withington - 5cm 

Chris R - Halewood - 3cm

 

£5 to the Winner for a fish Supper! 

 

Final measurements on concrete 5pm Wednesday, allow for drifting - best guess. 

0cm

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

The 18z runs (including the GEM) has pushed the streamer potential slightly further south sadly. However there is still shower potential shown at times. 

Met Office text forecast looks more promising

Today:

A dry day for some in the west with plenty of sunny spells, though scattered light snow showers will continue to feed into the region from the east all day. Remaining cold with bitter winds giving a strong wind chill. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Tonight:

Scattered snow showers this evening, becoming more widespread and often heavy overnight. Otherwise some clear spells, with widespread frost and risk of ice. Minimum temperature -2 °C.

Monday:

Plenty of sunny spells, especially in the west. However, snow showers will feed in from the east, some turning heavy. Very cold with chill winds. Widespread frost early and late. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

 

However does look more likely that streamer is going to go through the north Midlands at the moment.