North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Its snowing]

I dont get it...The MET BBC and a lot of you guys are saying it prob wont snow or if it does it will not be much, and i get the reasons why as the snow is from the east and for myself in 16 years of living in east lancs I have never seen more than an inch from the east ...but...I just watched a guy on you tube who seems to know his weather stuff and virtually all his models,runs ,gfs things ect seem to say it will snow for most of us for a few days and for some it will be heavy. 

[SP1986]

1 minute ago, Its snowing said:

I dont get it...The MET BBC and a lot of you guys are saying it prob wont snow or if it does it will not be much, and i get the reasons why as the snow is from the east and for myself in 16 years of living in east lancs I have never seen more than an inch from the east ...but...I just watched a guy on you tube who seems to know his weather stuff and virtually all his models,runs ,gfs things ect seem to say it will snow for most of us for a few days and for some it will be heavy. 

Perhaps but for not experience trumps expectation. 

It is a case of nowcasting really 

[jam2010]

I have no idea why but i do have a sinking feeling the ppn will die out of the Pennines (hope I am wrong) 

[alr1970]

Going off the GFS ensembles, tomorrow night into Sunday looks best if it's snow you want. Very cold but dry thereafter.

[PennineMark]

19 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Met/BBC apps useless until T -1

Exactly. We can spot the app issues as we are all enthusiasts. The problem lies with the tens of thousands who are not and who glance at an app like this and assume it'll be cold and dry. I know folk locally who were stuck at home for 4 days in Feb/March 2018 because of snow. I'm not saying it'll be the same this time, it could be better or worse, but a heads up from the 'trusted' Met app to get a few supplies in, especially in these covid restricted times is important. If its wrong about a day when 20c and not a cloud in the sky that's one thing. Wrong about an upcoming ice day with potential heavy snow issues that's another. 

[damianslaw]

Stating the obvious but it will be a case of now casting, view the radar.

[Had Worse]

Precipitation from around 4pm on Saturday to bottom of table is approx 30mm. JFF at a 10:1 ration, that would be 30cm.

[Weather-history]

41 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Just looked back on my photos, look to be about 1-2cm at best. 

That's about what reef got from it and he lives not far from the east coast.

 

 

[The Northern Ramper]

Well we have stocked up today so no need to leave the house all weekend other than to enjoy the snow.

[Had Worse]

7 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Well we have stocked up today so no need to leave the house all weekend other than to enjoy the snow.

I can just imagine having to dig through a drift to get to the outside freezer lol.

[Slidergate '17]

Just had a quick look at my March 2018 images of the snow & found a couple. 2 pics taken from Milnrow & 1 from Sale on the same day. I fully expect this next week or so to produce the same kind of disparity. Would love to be wrong tho !

[The Northern Ramper]

2 minutes ago, Slidergate '17 said:

Just had a quick look at my March 2018 images of the snow & found a couple. 2 pics taken from Milnrow & 1 from Sale on the same day. I fully expect this next week or so to produce the same kind of disparity. Would love to be wrong tho !

I’d bank a repeat now if offered, sorry

[iand61]

1 minute ago, Slidergate '17 said:

Just had a quick look at my March 2018 images of the snow & found a couple. 2 pics taken from Milnrow & 1 from Sale on the same day. I fully expect this next week or so to produce the same kind of disparity. Would love to be wrong tho !

Pennine areas took a hammering from the 2018 event but I can’t see the differences being as vast this time around but worryingly not because I expect areas further west to get a lot more, I just can’t see the parts closer into the Pennines doing as well as we would hope and expect.

 

[The Northern Ramper]

7 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I can just imagine having to dig through a drift to get to the outside freezer lol.

With any luck

[The Northern Ramper]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

Pennine areas took a hammering from the 2018 event but I can’t see the differences being as vast this time around but worryingly not because I expect areas further west to get a lot more, I just can’t see the parts closer into the Pennines doing as well as we would hope and expect.

 

I’ve got three days of nowcasting to get through before I’m back in work, I’m hopeful.

[Jontiman]

Being based in West Cumbria once again I look in envy at forecasts of heavy snow in the East, especially as I remember epic winters from my childhood in Gateshead.  However many in West Cumbria will remember exactly 25 years ago on 5th/6th February 1996, for what has become known locally as The Big Snow, when about 20 hours of constant heavy fall resulted in over a foot of laying snow (even down to the edge of the lapping waves on Seascale beach) and drifts of 3 and 4 feet burying hundreds of abandoned cars across the space of a few miles.  The photo shows a point in Whitehaven less than 10m elevation and less than 500m from the Irish Sea.  Haven't seen anything near the likes of it since.  I do wonder whether the forthcoming cold from the East and possible blocking of incoming fronts from the West may give us a re-run?  Are there models archived from back then that show the setup and any similarities with the current situation? 

[iand61]

Just got back home from a couple of hours in work so not had much chance to catch up on things but what’s the mood like from the SE contingent in the Mad Thread.

I noticed before I went out that the extreme SE corner had been given an Amber warning but that areas immediately north and west of London were still in a yellow.

Can’t imagine that going down well with the “my snow is deeper than your snow” members who have just missed out.

[Frosty the Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Jontiman said:

Being based in West Cumbria once again I look in envy at forecasts of heavy snow in the East, especially as I remember epic winters from my childhood in Gateshead.  However many in West Cumbria will remember exactly 25 years ago on 5th/6th February 1996, for what has become known locally as The Big Snow, when about 20 hours of constant heavy fall resulted in over a foot of laying snow (even down to the edge of the lapping waves on Seascale beach) and drifts of 3 and 4 feet burying hundreds of abandoned cars across the space of a few miles.  The photo shows a point in Whitehaven less than 10m elevation and less than 500m from the Irish Sea.  Haven't seen anything near the likes of it since.  I do wonder whether the forthcoming cold from the East and possible blocking of incoming fronts from the West may give us a re-run?  Are there models archived from back then that show the setup and any similarities with the current situation? 

Looking at this thread it appears to have been a westerly front meeting with an existing Easterly and providing breakdown snow.

 

Although I am sure the many on here old enough to remember it will be able to clear things up. I've heard this referred to many times as one of the holy grails for snow lovers on the West Coast, and there's a remote possibility of a rerun in the next few weeks depending on the track of the current Atlantic Low. 

[Geordiesnow]

As others said, I suspect some places will miss out but that is just life. However I still suspect places like East Cumbria, greater Manchester and perhaps even Merseyside to get some snowfall.

I looked back at the charts for the Beast and it was more of a ESE'ly flow whilst this time for the most part, it could be more ENE'ly so we see how it plays out. No two set ups are exactly the same.

Do hope for a snowy breakdown but that is too far out to speculate.

[Spah1]

I’d love to be in Newhey for the next 7 days !

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

06z has nothing for the NW  - true rain shadow stuff.

Best offering is the SW front on Thursday - 3 hrs ppn and that's your lot.

All subject to change - more runs needed...! as they say.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

06z has nothing for the NW  - true rain shadow stuff.

Best offering is the SW front on Thursday - 3 hrs ppn and that's your lot.

All subject to change - more runs needed...! as they say.

Weather Moorside

WWW.METEOBLUE.COM

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Today's and tonight's professional weather forecast for Moorside. Precipitation radar, HD satellite images, and current weather warnings, hourly temperature, chance of rain, and sunshine hours.

 

This is a good website and it lets you see all the ensembles from many different models.

[Day 10]

Just done some digging.

27th Feb 2018

No snow from the East this far west is utter tosh!

We got this.

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

27 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Just got back home from a couple of hours in work so not had much chance to catch up on things but what’s the mood like from the SE contingent in the Mad Thread.

I noticed before I went out that the extreme SE corner had been given an Amber warning but that areas immediately north and west of London were still in a yellow.

Can’t imagine that going down well with the “my snow is deeper than your snow” members who have just missed out.

Lol - after a few days they'll be totally wazzed off with it all and be ready for Summer.

As for here  - hope the favoured spots get what they wish - us lowlanders are used to none of it.

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Just done some digging.

27th Feb 2018

No snow from the East this far west is utter tosh!

We got this.

 

That was from a trough, did not hit as much here but in terms of shower wise, I dont recall any showers hitting here, you keep seeing the shower clouds but they just die out as they hit the coast.