North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Joe Bloggs]

15 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Snow Saturday evening and then strong easterly winds until at least Wednesday which is as far as I’m looking. I don’t see the point in chasing a breakdown and not enjoying the cold spell for what it is. I see persistent snow showers making it over the Pennines and with consecutive ice days everything will stick. 
Being snow obsessive and having lived in north east Gtr Manchester area most of my life I remember all our classic winters from the early 80’s onwards. This set up always delivers.

Agreed. I’ve been driving myself mad looking at charts but I’m going for..

- heavy scattered snow showers east of M6

- Heavy snow in east of the region at altitude with possible significant accumulations 

- generally dry west of M6 unless a streamer develops (very possible).

That’s before the possible breakdown later in the week. I’m gonna try and stop checking the charts soon and focus on the radar from tomorrow lunchtime. Need to try and enjoy it whether it snows or not. 

[Osca31]

MOD thread seems very subdued this morning. Maybe something to do with the possible Atlantic push later in the week?

[robbo88]

Feels lovely and spring like in the sun currently. 

I know we aren't to trust the apps, but they have me down for snow from 5pm tomorrow now, yesterday it was 10pm. 

[The Northern Ramper]

17 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Agreed. I’ve been driving myself mad looking at charts but I’m going for..

- heavy scattered snow showers east of M6

- Heavy snow in east of the region at altitude with possible significant accumulations 

- generally dry west of M6 unless a streamer develops (very possible).

That’s before the possible breakdown later in the week. I’m gonna try and stop checking the charts soon and focus on the radar from tomorrow lunchtime. Need to try and enjoy it whether it snows or not. 

Exactly, what’s the point in chasing these Synoptics if we are not going to enjoy them once here.

[frosty ground]

The cold for next week is intensifying now with predicted maximums of -2 I expect these to fall. (-7) Min

[Chris.R]

In Crosby in 2018 I had about 4 cm of snow from showers after the trough on the 27th. That’s pretty good for the west coast. Surprised others on the West Coast didn’t get anything from that.

[Chris.R]

Let’s not micro-analyse snow possibilities over the next few days until the day itself. It’s just too unpredictable. It will be a nowcast situation but I firmly believe things will turn out better than people expect.

[raul_sbd]

What are your take on things @Kasim Awan as things stand now? Are you going to create one of those snow risk maps for the wknd - next week, will b really nice to have your output on things

[AmatuerMet1963]

40 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Snow Saturday evening and then strong easterly winds until at least Wednesday which is as far as I’m looking. I don’t see the point in chasing a breakdown and not enjoying the cold spell for what it is. I see persistent snow showers making it over the Pennines and with consecutive ice days everything will stick. 
Being snow obsessive and having lived in north east Gtr Manchester area most of my life I remember all our classic winters from the early 80’s onwards. This set up always delivers.

I understand, but me a Sussex born and bred, and was out in my car in the last Blizzard I was ever in in 1978ish. But since moving to Pembrokeshire in 1987 than Blackpool for 23 years up to late 2000s I have seen anything more than an inch, not the 10feet I walked to school in in my era.   Manchester has a strange climate, I can vouch for that as a civilian Airliner hobby. And a A320 mocked up cockpit on Flight Sim x.   I see at the Manchester runway viewing park where Concorde is, many times on video and in real life, how turbulent the cross winds are at Manchester Airport. I only live as the crow flies around 20 miles from Salford In Newtown Wigan, just a few minutes drive from the Bolton Stadium. But for some reason none if ever precipitation arrives from the east here. Only rain bearing Atlantic lows. I have studied many charts this morning, windy , main weather channels, and all give clear sunny but frosty forecasts for Wigan area, although we are supposed to be part of Greater Manchester, but within this new Greater Manchester area, the weather you get on the East side is very different from what you get in West Manchester or West Lancashire and for many people  Wigan will always be in Lancashire and reject being in Greater Manchester...With 60%F being forecast soon as 14 days, I can't see any Beast getting to us. If you get some in parts of Manchester enjoy it, as scientists point out that by 2030 snow in Britain will be very rare due to climate changes and co2 plus the ever increasing levels of Methane.  See, you live in East Manchester thats a long way from Wigan and Ince on Makesfield where I live. The weather divides us lol

[Frosty the Snowman]

I've done everybody a snow risk map......

 

[alr1970]

OMG, locations are back on message headers on mobile. That will make tracking snow reports much easier.

[PennineMark]

1 hour ago, Ramp said:

Snow Saturday evening and then strong easterly winds until at least Wednesday which is as far as I’m looking. I don’t see the point in chasing a breakdown and not enjoying the cold spell for what it is. I see persistent snow showers making it over the Pennines and with consecutive ice days everything will stick. 
Being snow obsessive and having lived in north east Gtr Manchester area most of my life I remember all our classic winters from the early 80’s onwards. This set up always delivers.

Absolutely. You can stare at charts all you want, but 40yrs plus experience of having these setups locally tells me to expect the potential for snow to be great. Heavy snow will make it this far west plus a bit further. The issue could be that if showers form lines instead of bands it could be very frustrating seeing snow continuously pass 5 or 10 miles north or south. We'll find out soon enough. 

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, PennineMark said:

Absolutely. You can stare at charts all you want, but 40yrs plus experience of having these setups locally tells me to expect the potential for snow to be great. Heavy snow will make it this far west plus a bit further. The issue could be that if showers form lines instead of bands it could be very frustrating seeing snow continuously pass 5 or 10 miles north or south. We'll find out soon enough. 

THIS !!  
 

This will be a very good test of our thoughts. 

[Frosty the Snowman]

11 minutes ago, alr1970 said:

OMG, locations are back on message headers on mobile. That will make tracking snow reports much easier.

 

A good segway on to this - I know most people already do but can you please check you have your height above sea level in your location - it helps distinguish how helpful a snow report is for other users in your vicinity (20m asl - complaining of no snow or low depths in the same shower that gives 2-3cm a few miles down the road, whilst someone at 600m saying their buried and the rest of us wondering what the fuss about is all too common) 

[PennineMark]

Something tells me this latest forecast update on the Met app isn't quite right .

[raul_sbd]

2 minutes ago, PennineMark said:

Something tells me this latest forecast update on the Met app isn't quite right .

I believe they will rectify nearer the time... they probably dont want to get caught..

[Chris.R]

Met/BBC apps useless until T -1

[Frosty the Snowman]

Just For Fun as I've too much time on my hands

 

The met office have the showers tomorrow night dying somewhere around Burnely turning to sleet in Padiham and then nothingness in Blackburn. 

 

That's an incredibly westward starting point for an E'LY, which suggest to me they reckon this could deliver quite widely, will keep an update over tonight and tomorrow. 

 

[Backtrack]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Met/BBC apps useless until T -1

Think we both know it's cold and dry for us here Chris

[SP1986]

I do think we'll get more snow than we think.. even here in the west. But it stands to reason that the further west you are or the closer you are to a rainshadow, the less we will get 

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Think we both know it's cold and dry for us here Chris

Disagree I think we will see quite a few showers from time to time and hopefully some disturbances in the flow.

How much snow did you get from the 2018 beast btw?

[Backtrack]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Disagree I think we will see quite a few showers from time to time and hopefully some disturbances in the flow.

How much snow did you get from the 2018 beast btw?

Just looked back on my photos, look to be about 1-2cm at best. I can see us having a few leftover flakes. The scraps that the East don't hog. Other than that, can't see it.

[Day 10]

11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Disagree I think we will see quite a few showers from time to time and hopefully some disturbances in the flow.

How much snow did you get from the 2018 beast btw?

Coming into view

[Day 10]

13 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Disagree I think we will see quite a few showers from time to time and hopefully some disturbances in the flow.

How much snow did you get from the 2018 beast btw?

Fully agree with this.

[Frosty the Snowman]

22 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Just For Fun as I've too much time on my hands

 

The met office have the showers tomorrow night dying somewhere around Burnely turning to sleet in Padiham and then nothingness in Blackburn. 

 

That's an incredibly westward starting point for an E'LY, which suggest to me they reckon this could deliver quite widely, will keep an update over tonight and tomorrow. 

 

Love within 20 minutes of posting this has been updated to snow in Blackburn. With the line moved westwards to somewhere between Preston and Blackburn.

 

Imagine the closer we get to this the more confidence will increase and the further west this'll get/ 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Frosty the Snowman