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North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
3 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Sounds like a football back 5

Add in Giles, Hammond & Wilson...

Just 3 more...

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Just now, Day 10 said:

Add in Giles, Hammond & Wilson...

Just 3 more...

Midfield?

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Posted
  • Location: Wavertree, Liverpool
  • Location: Wavertree, Liverpool

Talking about weather presenters, my favourite was the main man, Daniel Corbett. Loved his persona, very unique. Though I'm aware he's worked both in America, and now settled in NZ, he was just great.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
2 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Midfield?

Just thinking of the keeper and two strikers...

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Posted
  • Location: Walton le Dale, Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, icy, snowy etc
  • Location: Walton le Dale, Preston, Lancashire

Crikey; the charts look mental (from my very basic layman's perspective)

 

I'm just sitting & hoping  for the snow and my CV19 test comes back negative...! Been feeling rough all week, fingers crossed it's nothing more than a cold/sinusitis!

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
4 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Midfield?

Avery in goal

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Just thinking of the keeper and two strikers...

Lucy Verasamy is a keeper

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
6 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Midfield?

The OX (RIP) and Kirkwood up top.

Team name?

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
7 minutes ago, hailseizertoo said:

Talking about weather presenters, my favourite was the main man, Daniel Corbett. Loved his persona, very unique. Though I'm aware he's worked both in America, and now settled in NZ, he was just great.

He was a bloody nutcase, very funny.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

The OX (RIP) and Kirkwood up top.

Team name?

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Weatherfield FC

 

Avery

Mc Caskill  - Fish  - Mc Elwee - Kettley - Gibbs

Giles - Hammond - Wilson

The OX - Kirkwood

 

Very 1991

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wavertree, Liverpool
  • Location: Wavertree, Liverpool
Just now, Day 10 said:

Weatherfield FC

 

Avery

Mc Caskill  - Fish  - Mc Elwee - Kettley - Gibbs

Giles - Hammond - Wilson

The OX - Kirkwood

 

Very 1991

 

 

 

The OX. Sadly missed.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Just now, hailseizertoo said:

The OX. Sadly missed.

And Ian Mc

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12 hours ago, SP1986 said:

That's interesting, everything further south looks incredible marginal on that FAX chart. Even the 528 DAM zone is north of most of the NW at that point. I would have thought the cold air would be thoroughly entrenched everywhere by that point (12pm Sunday). 

The thing is the 528 DAM is deceptive, it is representative of the temperature between 1000-500 mb but despite mention of 'deep cold', it is actually concentrated in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures up towards 500mb are not especially cold relatively speaking - indeed it soon becomes a westerly flow above the easterly lower down.

The repercussions of this means it's cold near the surface, which is want you want for snow, however with regards to shower activity it is largely developing below the 800mb level generated by surface forcing, there is limited deep convection.

Taking this precipitation chart for Monday as an example -

transect.thumb.png.0a260c173f30117c93b79b47b71c74d2.png

The black line in the middle from roughly Liverpool out into the North Sea is represented in the cross section below -

coupegfs_220_40_345_41_78_3_1000_250.thumb.png.b40ebeb5b64697680dd4a3fe9d592fd5.png

This shows vertical velocity - vertical air movement. Following the direction of wind flow from the east on the right hand side and comparing to the precipitation chart, there is gentle convection (max at about 700mb) over the North Sea producing showers, shown by the upwards arrows on the chart. Moving leftwards (towards the west) the showers are enhanced on meeting the Lincolnshire Wolds but the uplift is only up to about 800mb, the air is quite stable and the topographic wave forms a descending air at 750mb reducing shower activity inland.

Moving further westwards, upon approaching the Pennines, there is strong uplift below 850mb, producing heavier showers, but the topographic wave and strong descent caps development to below 800mb and effectively kills showers to the west of the Pennines, on the left hand side of the chart.

One way this flow pattern may breakdown is suggested by this run on Tuesday evening is a convergence zone (sometimes misleadingly described as a streamer).

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Always find the 1000-850hpa thicknesses (roughly cloud level or 1500m 850hpa & ground level 1000hpa) are a great indicator of what will fall from the sky. I can only ever find them on weather online line though. Does anyone know of anywhere else they are shown?:

In simple terms from my location at 19m asl, if it's blue it's likely snow, if it's green it's rain.

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning.

 

21021000_0500.gif

Edited by Beano
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
19 minutes ago, Interitus said:

The thing is the 528 DAM is deceptive, it is representative of the temperature between 1000-500 mb but despite mention of 'deep cold', it is actually concentrated in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures up towards 500mb are not especially cold relatively speaking - indeed it soon becomes a westerly flow above the easterly lower down.

The repercussions of this means it's cold near the surface, which is want you want for snow, however with regards to shower activity it is largely developing below the 800mb level generated by surface forcing, there is limited deep convection.

Taking this precipitation chart for Monday as an example -

transect.thumb.png.0a260c173f30117c93b79b47b71c74d2.png

The black line in the middle from roughly Liverpool out into the North Sea is represented in the cross section below -

coupegfs_220_40_345_41_78_3_1000_250.thumb.png.b40ebeb5b64697680dd4a3fe9d592fd5.png

This shows vertical velocity - vertical air movement. Following the direction of wind flow from the east on the right hand side and comparing to the precipitation chart, there is gentle convection (max at about 700mb) over the North Sea producing showers, shown by the upwards arrows on the chart. Moving leftwards (towards the west) the showers are enhanced on meeting the Lincolnshire Wolds but the uplift is only up to about 800mb, the air is quite stable and the topographic wave forms a descending air at 750mb reducing shower activity inland.

Moving further westwards, upon approaching the Pennines, there is strong uplift below 850mb, producing heavier showers, but the topographic wave and strong descent caps development to below 800mb and effectively kills showers to the west of the Pennines, on the left hand side of the chart.

One way this flow pattern may breakdown is suggested by this run on Tuesday evening is a convergence zone (sometimes misleadingly described as a streamer).

This is an interesting post, thanks. 

The physics are explained quite well by your posted charts in that the Pennines do tend to enhance the showers which means places like Oldham, Tameside and even Stockport can get heavy snow showers but they do tend to die quite quickly once they get to West Manchester.  This would be my experience of most easterlies, with areas further west doing well if we are affected by a convergence zone as you say. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Daniel Corbett is brilliant.. I think he forecasts in NZ still. He has a fan group on Facebook

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
56 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Add in Giles, Hammond & Wilson...

Just 3 more...

I’d put shaffernacker or whatever he’s called in goal as, although he’s a crap weather presenter there’s nowt would get past a name that big

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Posted
  • Location: wigan
  • Location: wigan

Very disappointing change in snow forecasts. All changed from last week. For us in Starved North West, almost all the main weather media BBC / Netweather / and MET office show us in Lancashire devoid of any snow, as it all stops at the Pennines & and for some reason It just wont continue to Lancashire, but this is what happened in 2018.  Its not noted on my calendar, because we had sunny weather and frosts only in Blackpool. Residents on the coasts and where I live in Wigan, experienced hardly one flake. This looks like the same. Its never going to BE a 1963,  wind direction changes in 9 days back to Southerly.

In 1963 Atlantic low pressure systems  came straight into the Easterly in place and pummelled not only The South East with 12 feet drifts WHERE i LIVED, but also gave Manchester a huge amount of snow to. This easterly will be quite different, and West parts of the UK are unlikely to be affected by this present setup. in fact the GFS for next week, shows NO snow over most of the UK apart from a spot in Scotland. I have already written of any snowy long term weather for N West and Lancashire

NO SNOW FOR LANCASHIRE.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

Snow Saturday evening and then strong easterly winds until at least Wednesday which is as far as I’m looking. I don’t see the point in chasing a breakdown and not enjoying the cold spell for what it is. I see persistent snow showers making it over the Pennines and with consecutive ice days everything will stick. 
Being snow obsessive and having lived in north east Gtr Manchester area most of my life I remember all our classic winters from the early 80’s onwards. This set up always delivers.

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