North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[SP1986]

I'm going to go for 1cm here from dying eastwards showers. 

 

Also I'm going to say lowest minimum around -4C here which will be the lowest for 3 years.

[Day 10]

JFF Bank.

[Dan B]

19 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

I like your optimism

 

No point in being anything else...

 

More so as we should have been up in Dunkeld in the Highlands Saturday onwards 

[severe snowstorm]

11 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Stewards inquiry - You can't be changing your daily thoughts with the output lol.

Lol!! That's fair enough. I initially saw what @cheshire snow had predicted and thought he must know something locally that I don't so edged my bets! 

[iand61]

8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

JFF Bank.

Don’t bank

if anything shows up a north south divide it’s this damn big moat across our patch.

 

not saying it will happen like this and the charts  have to be taken with a pinch of salt but looking at that big unaffected area in the middle we’ll have plenty of salt left

[Day 10]

Looks snowy for most early Sunday.

[cheshire snow]

7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Lol!! That's fair enough. I initially saw what @cheshire snow had predicted and thought he must know something locally that I don't so edged my bets! 

Indeed

And on the basis of 40 years local knowledge of the area and a very unstable Easterly flow i would like to up my prediction but will stay within the rules of the game the myth of this area been bad for snow from the east was put to bed long before the Beast of 2018 people in this thread looking at PPN charts and taking as gospel then more fool you I am not ramping this up and if I am wrong then so be it I will hold my hands up and take it on the chin.

Transition day is Saturday then we are locked in to cold spell also breakdown is delayed again on this morning charts so could well be still in this cold spell into the next weekend as well.

Enjoy your snow its on its way.

C.S

 

[Snow free zone]

1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Even Sunny Salwick?

Anyway 06z coming out now - eyes down.

no

[robbo88]

 

 

Carinthian's post mentions the greatest risk of snowfall Sunday into Monday over southern northern England. 

[severe snowstorm]

10 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Indeed

And on the basis of 40 years local knowledge of the area and a very unstable Easterly flow i would like to up my prediction but will stay within the rules of the game the myth of this area been bad for snow from the east was put to bed long before the Beast of 2018 people in this thread looking at PPN charts and taking as gospel then more fool you I am not ramping this up and if I am wrong then so be it I will hold my hands up and take it on the chin.

Transition day is Saturday then we are locked in to cold spell also breakdown is delayed again on this morning charts so could well be still in this cold spell into the next weekend as well.

Enjoy your snow its on its way.

C.S

 

Cheers mate, I knew you must be speaking from extensive local experience. Fingers crossed anyway. 

[cheshire snow]

6 minutes ago, robbo88 said:

 

 

Carinthian's post mentions the greatest risk of snowfall Sunday into Monday over southern northern England. 

Would agree with that.

C.S

[Slidergate '17]

6 minutes ago, robbo88 said:

 

 

Carinthian's post mentions the greatest risk of snowfall Sunday into Monday over southern northern England. 

Well well well... interesting musings.

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Cheers mate, I knew you must be speaking from extensive local experience. Fingers crossed anyway. 

 

15 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Indeed

And on the basis of 40 years local knowledge of the area and a very unstable Easterly flow i would like to up my prediction but will stay within the rules of the game the myth of this area been bad for snow from the east was put to bed long before the Beast of 2018 people in this thread looking at PPN charts and taking as gospel then more fool you I am not ramping this up and if I am wrong then so be it I will hold my hands up and take it on the chin.

Transition day is Saturday then we are locked in to cold spell also breakdown is delayed again on this morning charts so could well be still in this cold spell into the next weekend as well.

Enjoy your snow its on its way.

C.S

 

Monday & Tuesday look even better than Sunday!

Some solid streamer activity being picked up in the South of our region Monday, moving further North Tuesday.

All powder snow.

 

 

[Snow free zone]

Still yet to see anything other than dry and cold for here.  All the forecasts i've seen predict no ppn for here, and even the fantasy snow depth charts now showing the same. Standard easterly conditions for here IMO.   

[Manchester_Sunset]

Going to feel like -5 come Monday

[Slidergate '17]

Great..

[cheshire snow]

First attempt of breakdown is a bust LP goes under the block and heads into France second attempt has more of a go but looks like a good period of snow before rain all accademic at this stage would not be surprised to see the second attempt fail could be more of a bitter cold spell this instead of a snap we shall see the cold is now a certainly my interest now is how long we can prolong it.

C.S

[Frosty the Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Slidergate '17 said:

Great..

Baby steps... 

[Frost HoIIow]

Loving the charts and a further upgrade on yesterday? A bit of a way out of course but looks like we can add next Friday now to the cold category

[cowdog]

4 minutes ago, Slidergate '17 said:

Great..

It really does seem to be a poorly drawn area in regards to the North. We aren't even in it yet we know we can get hit hard by Easterlies here and are projected even on Met offices website to have constant snow from 6pm Saturday until there end of forecasts on Wednesday.

 

Really needed to cover most of Cumbria and take it to about Blackburn imo.

[Geordiesnow]

Saturday looks cold and wet, typical north western weather. Could of been a bit different it earlier runs were more spot on but not too be.

As far as that competition goes  Morecambe 1CM, suppose it's only take one lucky shower to make it here to get that.

[Frosty the Snowman]

Just now, cowdog said:

It really does seem to be a poorly drawn area in regards to the North. We aren't even in it yet we know we can get hit hard by Easterlies here and are projected even on Met offices website to have constant snow from 6pm Saturday until there end of forecasts on Wednesday.

 

Really needed to cover most of Cumbria and take it to about Blackburn imo.

To be honest it's getting to the point I'm more optimistic about a snowy spell if I'm not under a weather warning from the MetO

[Alexis]

Pretty standard in an easterly to put out warnings for the east.

If a trough looks like coming across I'd expect westerly warnings to emerge 12 hours before.

[iand61]

5 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

To be honest it's getting to the point I'm more optimistic about a snowy spell if I'm not under a weather warning from the MetO

Yeah it’s far from inspiring from our point of view although not surprising but at least there are a few positives which we can take from it.

things can only upgrade from here.

if we get some heavy disruptive snow then it’s better than what we are currently being told to expect.

at least the North West vaccination programme shouldn’t be impacted by blocked roads and closed centres.

meanwhile I’ll keep out of the gloatfest in the SE model thread and get back to doing some work.

[Day 10]

Regarding the warnings, it's only Thursday...